10 million jobs lost in two weeks! But today’s non-farm data won’t be bad? Gold and silver T+D small rebound!

The spread of the disease has become increasingly worrisome, with the cumulative number of confirmed cases now exceeding one million and more than 50,000 deaths worldwide. The mood was more cautious, with investors staying on the sidelines ahead of the crucial U.S. payrolls report later in the day.

Subsession on Friday (April 3), spot gold in the last day’s sharp rebound to maintain a narrow range shock, the price is hovering above the 1600 mark.

The number of americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose to a record high for the second week in a row, adding to fears of economic damage from the coronavirus outbreak and prompting investors to flee to the safety of gold, which hit a high of $1,619 at the 1,600 mark.

Due to the spot gold on the day up, sub-market, the Shanghai gold exchange gold T + D day small pull up, currently trading at 363 yuan/g, up nearly 1%. Gold T+D rose 1.41 percent to 362.87 yuan per gram in early trading.

Spot silver rallied strongly last day, trading above $14.50, and remained in a tight trading range on Friday, trading around $14.50 pending guidance from the evening non-farm report.

Meanwhile, Shanghai gold exchange silver T + D on the basis of the previous day’s rise further, trading at 3,545 yuan/kg. Silver rose 2.65 percent to 3530.00 yuan per kg in morning trading.

As the outbreak continues to spread in the United States, the job market has been hit hard. The United States lost 10 million jobs in two weeks, an unprecedented rate and scale.

The labor department reported on April 2 that new claims for state unemployment benefits rose to nearly 6.65 million last week, the worst on record, from 3.28 million the previous week. That was well above economists’ median estimate of 3.5 million.

In this session, the market is bracing for this week’s particularly crucial U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. At 20:30 tonight, the us will release its march non-farm payrolls report, which is now widely expected to show a loss of 100,000 jobs, the first negative non-farm payrolls report in nearly a decade.

Market forecasts, based on Reuters statistics, are for march data to show U.S. non-farm payrolls at -100,000 (up from 273,000) and the unemployment rate at 4 percent (up from 3.5 percent).

For the nonfarm report, Adam Button expects Friday’s nonfarm data to not show a drop in jobs because the survey was conducted before the massive lockdown.

The march nonfarm survey was conducted in the second week of the month, so it hasn’t fully reflected the impact of the flu on the labor market, and there may not be the expected big shock.

“The impact of the outbreak on non-farm payrolls is likely to be relatively light given the survey coverage of the march non-farm payrolls report,” ING said. “however, given that U.S. companies started laying off workers and stopped hiring in early march, we could still see negative non-farm payrolls and a possible spike in the unemployment rate.” By April, nonfarm losses could reach millions.

Kathy Lien, managing director of BK asset management, wrote that Friday’s non-farm payrolls report will be the first to show a novel coronavirus. Economists expect nonfarm payrolls to fall by only 100,000 because, like ADP, nonfarm payrolls were held on March 12.

fundamentals Positive factors :

  1. According to the real-time statistics of Johns Hopkins university in the United States, as of 11:02 on April 3, Beijing time, the global cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases exceeded 1.01 million, reaching 1015,709 cases. The United States has the world’s largest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases, with 245,213 cases and more than 245,000 cases.

2. New claims for state unemployment benefits rose to nearly 6.65 million last week, the worst on record, from 3.28 million the previous week, the labor department reported on April 2. That was well above economists’ median estimate of 3.5 million.

3. March, April 1 small U.S. non-farm payrolls showed that ADP employment fell 27,000 in March, the lowest level since January 2010.

  1. The final Markit manufacturing PMI for march released on April 1 in the United States was 48.5, compared with the expected 48, and the previous reading was 49.2, the lowest since August 2009. Markit said its manufacturing PMI and new orders index both hit their lowest levels since August 2009.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. On April 2, Saudi Arabia called for an emergency meeting of oil producers, while U.S. President Donald Trump said he expected Saudi Arabia and Russia to cut production by as much as 10 million to 15 million b/d, sparking risk sentiment and leading U.S. stocks to close higher.
  2. April 1 the federal reserve reduced the likelihood of a dollar crunch by expanding the ability of dozens of foreign central Banks to obtain dollars during the novel coronavirus crisis, allowing them to swap their holdings of U.S. debt for overnight loans in dollars.
  3. The sell-off in global stock markets highlights the growing risk of an outbreak that shows little sign of abating, given mounting evidence of a sharp global economic downturn. The dollar’s status as a global reserve currency makes it a natural safe haven.
  4. Russia’s central bank announced on Monday that it would stop buying gold from April 1, without explaining why.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *