Spot gold rebounded modestly on Monday, hitting an intraday high of $1,892.97 an ounce, as bulls tried to stabilize just above the $1,890 mark to regain the $1,900 mark. Tuesday is the U.S. election they, at present the market is still out of caution, though this week in addition to the fed’s policy meeting and non-agricultural blockbuster data, but the market focus on the only factor is still the us election, considering the biden and trump’s electoral gap is smaller, the election of variables is more and more big, rise in risk aversion brought a certain support for gold.
Market analysts note that Biden, the Democratic nominee, is leading in national polls but polling close to Trump in swing states, which could tip the race in Trump’s favor. But perhaps the most likely market-moving outcome, at least in the short term, is that there are no immediate results. On the other hand, various polls show That Democrats are far more likely to use mail-in ballots than Republicans, with voters likely to wait for live votes to be counted, leading to a “win-lose” scenario for Mr Trump.
Mr Trump’s “first-past-the-post” phase could take weeks because of the slow count of postal votes and the fact that many states recognise votes mailed on or before election day but received only later. Declaring victory, calling for an end to counting, challenging fraudulent mail-in ballots, raising legal issues and even linking party members in the state not to recognize the election results are all likely to play out.
Now that Wall Street doesn’t really care who wins, a showdown is good news for financial markets, but fear of a contested outcome is spreading, providing a temporary safe-haven boost for gold. But the real gains will have to wait until the fiscal stimulus deal is finalised.
On the economic front, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 59.3 in October, its highest reading since November 2018. Analysts noted that US manufacturing activity accelerated in October, with the index of new orders jumping to its highest level in nearly 17 years, as consumption shifted to goods such as cars as coVID-19 continued. It underscores how strongly the manufacturing sector has emerged from the epidemic and indicates that at least some parts of the economy continue to accelerate their recovery.
On the epidemic front, the number of COVID-19 cases in Europe passed the grim milestone of 10 million on Sunday, prompting countries such as the UK and Portugal to impose new lockdown measures. The situation in Europe and the US will also provide some safe-haven support for gold.
Technically, with gold prices down from their 100-day moving average on Friday and now around $1,890, sellers may still want to break the October and September lows close to $1,860 and $1,849, respectively. The technical forecast for gold is neutral, as spot gold is facing a cross-cutting trend. In September, the short-term 20-day moving average broke above the 50-day average and has since formed a bearish death cross. Gold rose cautiously due to a death cross and early weakness. The 50-day average holds resistance in the range of declines since August.
In other words, it is the support area between 1848.84 and 1863.26 that keeps the outlook neutral. The price range was established in August and then strengthened in September, so prices did not fall further in the past week. Still, with the gap between resistance and horizontal support gradually narrowing over the next few days, there is not enough room for consolidation.
If Joe Biden, a Democrat, wins the White House and Democrats take the Senate, the so-called “blue wave” could be best for gold. Because that means the US fiscal stimulus will be bigger, which means more liquidity will be pumped into the market.
Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive in New York, said in that scenario, gold could see a big rally. “A Biden victory in the White House and a Democratic victory in the Senate would mean more spending and more deficits, which would weigh on the dollar and lead to a multi-year rally in gold,” he said.
Peter Hug, head of global trading at Kitco, said it would be positive for gold no matter who wins the U.S. election. A Victory by Joe Biden, a Democrat, should not mean a bigger jump. The biggest risk now is that the results are disputed and delayed.