The gold market has been stagnating for more than a month as political uncertainty has dominated the market.
Gold has hovered around $1,900 in recent days as investors have been reluctant to make big bets ahead of the U.S. election. According to analysts, memories of election night 2016 are still vivid because it was an unprecedented event.
“I think a lot of investors want to be long on gold, but they don’t forget what happened four years ago,” Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said in a recent interview with Kitco News. “A lot of investors are waiting to see who will win.”
On election night 2016, gold had one of the biggest swings in recent history. Gold rallied late in the evening after Mr. Trump, the Republican candidate, began winning key swing states such as Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina.
Many analysts say precious metals look like an attractive haven as they anticipate the political uncertainty that a Trump victory would bring to financial markets. As Mr Trump’s victory solidified, the uncertainty led to a sell-off in stocks. Many analysts also believe that a Trump presidency would bring lower interest rates.
However, gold’s rise did not last long. Trump’s victory speech at 2:30 p.m. was described by many experts as very presidential. His comments triggered a major shift in investor sentiment and the stock market began to rebound. Many investors have also come to expect that lower interest rates will be good for stocks.
By the morning after the election, the gold market had given up all its gains and was in negative territory. The price of gold fluctuated by 10% in a matter of hours. The precious metal never really recovered for quite some time afterwards, and trading volumes were falling in December of that year.
Many analysts see many similarities between the 2020 election and the environment four years ago. Many experts predicted that then-Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton would be the next President.
Four years later, pollsters have found That Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden holds a solid lead across the country and in important swing states. Some pundits also think Democrats will take control of Congress, winning 52 seats and a majority in the Senate.
Many, however, still do not rule out the possibility of another Trump victory. Adding to the uncertainty this year is the looming question of a disputed result or an extended vote-counting period.
More than 100 million Americans have already voted early, more than two-thirds of those who voted in 2016.
“According to the polls, Biden could win, but you don’t know what will happen,” Commerzbank precious metals analyst Daniel Briesemann told Kitco News in a recent interview.
Briesemann said he saw two scenarios that would be positive for gold in the short term. One would be a clear victory for Biden and the Democrats who control Congress.
“If the Democrats win, people will expect a huge stimulus package,” he said. That would be very good for gold.
The second bullish case, Briesemann adds, is if the outcome is in dispute. “A disputed election will create long-term political uncertainty, which will favour gold as a haven.”
Many analysts believe the worst-case scenario for gold is that Congress remains divided as Republican senators continue to resist a major stimulus.
However, the main factor that will make 2020 very different from four years ago is the coVID-19 pandemic, which has killed more than 230,000 Americans and devastated the economy.
No matter who is in power, many economists and analysts say the government will have to provide more stimulus to prop up the struggling economy.
“Whoever is elected, this virus will continue to damage the economy and the deterioration of the economy will mean that the government must act. At this point, the U.S. election is not a game-changer that changes the strong fundamentals of the gold market, “said Ole Hansen, head of the commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.