On Friday (January 8) in the Asian session, the dollar index was marginally higher, now trading around 89.85; Spot gold was slightly lower, trading around $1911 an ounce. A new administration will take office on January 20, President Donald Trump said in his first tweet since his account was reinstated after Congress confirmed Joe Biden as the winner of the US presidential election. Gold took some of the negative impact as uncertainty over the US election eased safe-haven buying. On Friday night in Hong Kong time, investors will get the crucial U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to trigger sharp market swings.
Spot gold fell on Thursday, dragged down by a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields, but the prospect of more fiscal stimulus from the Democratic-led government capped losses. Spot gold settled at $1,913.81 an ounce, down $4.65, or 0.24 percent, from an intraday high of $1,927.62.
On Wednesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose above 1% for the first time since March. Treasury yields hit a high of 1.088 per cent on Thursday. The surge in Treasury yields has increased the opportunity cost of holding interest-free gold.
“After the Democrats’ victory in the Georgia Senate, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, pushing gold lower as it is extremely sensitive to yield movements,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Michael Armbruster, managing partner at Altavest in New York, said rising long-term Treasury yields are a headwind for gold, and if the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, gold is likely to fall further.
Gold’s decline may not last
Analysts said gold’s decline may be temporary. On the one hand, the dollar’s rebound may prove unsustainable, and on the other hand, gold will remain supportive as an inflation hedge amid the prospect of more fiscal stimulus from the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party’s victory in the U.S. Senate runoff election raised inflation expectations, while congressional confirmation of President-elect Joe Biden’s victory prompted investors to increase their bets on more fiscal stimulus.
Commodity traders are bullish on the long-term outlook for gold, as the prospect of a Democratic-controlled U.S. Congress pushing for more fiscal spending to stimulate the economy is positive for gold, according to MarketWatch.
‘This is an opportunity to buy gold,’ said Tai Wong, head of basic and precious metals derivatives trading at BMO. “With Joe Biden in the White House and Democrats in control of Congress, this is an environment of permission to spend, not a lower gold price.”
Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis for Asia and EMEA at Stonex, noted that with Georgia’s Senate runoff election winning two seats to the Democrats, the door theoretically opens to a stronger stimulus package than ever before.
David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures in New York, said the pullback was a short-term move given the potential for a “blue wave” in the U.S. Senate, which would be negative for the dollar and “support gold and silver over the longer term.”
OANDA analyst Edward Moya said he expects the Democrats’ “blue wave” to drive gold higher, while overbearish dollar positions are being repaired and will be a short-term headwind for gold.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said the rise in US Treasury yields was prompting some investors to “flee gold and go to safety”. But he added that while the dollar’s strength had weighed on gold prices, its gains were likely to be “short-lived”.
“The two Democratic victories in Georgia have raised expectations of a bigger stimulus package and more infrastructure spending,” said Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. Technically, gold is no longer in overbought territory, with $1965 a key resistance level and short-term support around $1,894, she said.
Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said: “The dollar has more room to fall, which would also be positive for Metals.”
‘Until gold falls below $1,900.00 an ounce and stays below that level, our bullish view will remain in force,’ writes Economies.com. We are now waiting for gold to break above $1,928.60 / oz. If so, this will reinforce expectations that gold will continue to rally, with the next target at $1,90.00 / oz. Economies.com expects short-term support at $1,900.00 and resistance at $1,1950.00, respectively.
A Twitter account has spoken out for the first time since it was unblocked. Trump: The new administration will be inaugurated on January 20th
The United States Congress held a joint session of the House and Senate on January 6 local time to complete the electoral vote count. Biden received 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. Vice President Mike Pence, chairman of the joint meeting, presided over the meeting and declared Biden the winner of the U.S. presidential election.
US President Donald Trump tweeted for the first time on Tuesday night after his account was unblocked. Mr Trump said the new administration, which will take office on January 20, would now focus on an orderly and smooth transition that required “healing and reconciliation”.
In his first speech, Mr. Trump acknowledged that President-elect Joe Biden’s administration will take control of the White House on January 20. Trump posted the video on Twitter after the account was unblocked for 12 hours.
“A new administration will take office on January 20,” Trump said in a nearly three-minute video that did not mention Biden by name. Now everyone must calm down and restore calm. We have to get America’s business in order. My focus now is to ensure a smooth, orderly and seamless transfer of power.”
Mr Trump had previously vowed never to concede defeat to Mr Biden. The president’s comments came a day after large numbers of his supporters stormed the Capitol building, delaying Congress’s process of counting the electoral votes.
“Those who engage in violence do not represent our country, and they will pay the price,” Trump said in a video in which he strongly condemned the clashes at the Capitol.
Nonfarm heavy hit
On Friday, investors will get the December U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which will be crucial in gauging the outlook for the U.S. economy. Investors need to pay close attention to the volatile financial markets that often follow the nonfarm data.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report for December is due at 21:30 Hong Kong time on Friday. U.S. nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 62,000 in December and the unemployment rate is expected to have risen to 6.8 percent, according to a respected survey of foreign media.
Investors are also looking at payroll data. Average hourly wages are expected to have risen 4.5 percent in December and 0.2 percent on a monthly basis, the survey showed.
U.S. employers added 245,000 jobs in November, the Labor Department reported last month, the fifth straight monthly decline and well below expectations for a gain of 475,000. The U.S. unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 6.70 percent in November, compared with 6.80 percent expected.
Some U.S. labor market data earlier in the week were mixed, but Friday’s report could be overshadowed by a weak ADP employment report, known as the “Little NFPs.”
Employment research firm ADP reported on Wednesday that the U.S. economy shed 123,000 jobs in December, far worse than expectations for a 75,000 gain. It was the first negative reading since April 2020.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to 787,000 in the week ended December 31, Labor Department data showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected 815,000.
Analysts said the dollar could take a hit if Friday’s non-farm payrolls report falls short of expectations, while gold could start a rally.