Spot silver was trading at $18.018 an ounce in Asia. Silver followed gold’s volatile intraday decline, hitting an intraday low of $17.932 an ounce before continuing sharp declines.
Silver jumped as high as $18.491 an ounce in the previous session amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East before rebounding. The rapid escalation in the Middle East following the U.S. killing of Iran’s top general on Friday, particularly the U.S. military’s attacks on Hezbollah guerrillas in Iraq and Syria, could push Iraq further toward Iran. On Sunday, Iran announced a commitment to end restrictions on its nuclear program, as Iraqi lawmakers voted to expel U.S. troops. President trump’s latest tweet says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, in response to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, Arab sky news recently tweeted that Hezbollah in Iraq says it will turn U.S. air bases into ruins if trump insists U.S. troops stay. The news certainly spooked markets, while precious metals remained resilient.
Iraq’s engagement with the United States comes at a time when Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads, complicating the Middle East and spreading risk aversion.
The Pentagon said on Monday that us generals had informed Iraq’s defense ministry in a letter that the us-led coalition would leave the country “as a mistake”. Us defense officials insist the troops will remain there.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday he would impose sanctions on Iraq if it demanded our troops leave the country. The United States will not leave Iraq until the airbase is paid for in Baghdad.
The next step is to keep a close eye on events in the Middle East, where any unexpected news could spark another upheaval.
On the daily chart, the dollar index is trading at a lower level, with MACD green momentum edging higher and KDJ random flat, suggesting the dollar is still expected to consolidate for some time.
In the 4-hour chart, the dollar index came under temporary pressure, with the MACD green momentum column unchanged and the KDJ random index unchanged, indicating that the dollar could remain under pressure in the short term.
On the daily chart, silver maintained an upward trend for the time being, with the MACD red momentum column narrowing slightly and the KDJ random index declining, indicating that the retracement of silver had resumed, followed by a pullback.
As can be seen from the 4-hour chart, the silver price dropped after the aftershock, the MACD green kinetic energy column expanded after the aftershock, while the KDJ random index dropped, indicating that the short-term silver price will continue to fall after the aftershock.
Fundamental favorable factors:
1. “never threaten Iran,” Iranian President Hassan Rohani said on Twitter on Monday in response to U.S. President Donald trump’s threat to strike 52 Iranian targets. Trump said on Twitter that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
2. The U.S. military said in a letter to the Iraqi military on Monday that it was preparing to withdraw from Iraq “out of respect for Iraq’s sovereignty.” The reporter saw a copy of the letter and confirmed its authenticity. U.S. defense secretary George esper later denied there was a withdrawal plan. James Millay, chairman of the pentagon’s joint chiefs of staff, explained that the letter was genuine but should not have been sent at this time. Miley said it was a mistake by the head of U.S. central command, general Mackenzie.
France’s foreign minister said Monday there was a real risk of war in the Middle East if tensions did not ease, but there was still room for a diplomatic solution to the Iran crisis.
Vice President Mike Pence will deliver a speech on U.S. policy toward Iran on Monday, White House officials said Monday. Senate aides say President Trump will hold a closed-door briefing on Iran for the full Senate on Wednesday. senate republican leader mitch McConnell said defense secretary David esper, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff James Millay and secretary of state Mike Pompeo will brief the senate on Iran.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday the US would strike back if Iran took any further action. Sanctions will be imposed on Iraq if it asks the United States to pull out, and intelligence on the killing of Iranian officials will be considered.
Fundamental negative factors:
European Union foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Friday to discuss how to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, two EU diplomats said on Monday.
On Friday, U.S. construction spending rose 0.6 percent in November from a month earlier, above a minus 0.8 percent and expectations of 0.3 percent. That suggests the housing market remains healthy.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 in the week ended December 28, the labor department said on Thursday, below expectations of 225,000. The four-week moving average of new claims rose 4,750 to 233,250, the highest level since January 2018. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell slightly, a positive sign for the U.S. labor market.
The conference board’s consumer confidence index for December, released on Tuesday, was 126.5, up from 125.5 and below expectations of 128.2, still high but not positive for the dollar or U.S. stocks.
An index of pending U.S. home sales, released on Monday, rose 1.2 percent in November, beating expectations for a 1.1 percent gain. The previous figure was revised to 1.3 percent from a 1.7 percent decline.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 222,000 in the week ended Dec. 21, down from forecasts of 224,000 and 234,000, according to a report released Dec. 26. The latest week’s decline largely offset an early increase in hiring in the previous two weeks, suggesting the U.S. job market remains strong, the commentary said.
This trading day key attention:
18:00 eurozone CPI for December
18:00 euro November retail sales
30 Canada November trade account
21:30 U.S. November trade account
23:00 U.S. durable goods orders for November final value
At 11:10 Beijing time, spot silver was trading at $18.018 an ounce.