China’s economy reaches 100 trillion yuan. Gold back above 1550! We are still in danger of sinking again

International spot gold was trading at $1553.40 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday. Gold ended the session down slightly at $1551.20 an ounce after a volatile session. Gold prices fell overall on Thursday as safe-haven buying took a hit amid a string of upbeat U.S. economic data suggesting the U.S. economy is in good health and optimism over a first-phase trade deal between China and the United States. In early Asian trading, gold accelerated its decline in the short term, falling through the 1550 barrier to a low of $1549.28 an ounce before settling in a tight range.

Gold T+D rose 1.66 yuan, or 0.34%, to 345.48 yuan per gram on Thursday, with the highest bid of 346.47 yuan per gram and the lowest bid of 344.15 yuan per gram. Spot gold opened at $1556.03 an ounce in early Asian trading on Thursday, dipping as low as $1548.06 and rising as high as $1557.90 to close at $1552.26, down $3.77, or 0.24%.

China’s gross domestic product (GDP) will reach 99086.5 billion yuan in 2019, up 6.1 percent from the previous year incomparable prices and in line with the target of 6 percent to 6.5 percent, the national bureau of statistics (NBS) said Wednesday. The year-on-year growth in the first quarter was 6.4%, 6.2% in the second quarter, 6.0% in the third quarter and 6.0% in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, China’s per capita GDP topped us $10,000 in 2019, according to the national bureau of statistics. According to preliminary calculations, China’s GDP will reach 99.0865 trillion yuan in 2019, firmly ranking second in the world.

Ning jizhe, head of the national bureau of statistics, said that overall, the national economy continued to maintain a stable and progressive development trend in 2019. At the same time, we should also note that the growth of the world economy and trade is slowing down, sources of turbulence and risks are on the rise, domestic structural and institutional cyclical problems are intertwined, and downward pressure on the economy remains strong.

U.S. data released on Thursday showed retail sales rose 0.3 percent in December, compared with expectations for a 0.3 percent gain and a 0.2 percent gain.

Comments pointed to a third straight month of growth in U.S. retail sales. Retailers had reported a drop in holiday sales due to reduced foot traffic at department stores, but December data showed retail sales still rose. The data suggest that households are still buying a lot of goods even as motor vehicles are buying less, which could reinforce the view that the economy will continue to grow at a moderate pace by the end of 2019.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 204,000 last week from an expected 216,000 to 214,000.

U.S. jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week last week, ending a rally in early December and falling more than expected, suggesting the labor market remains strong despite a recent slowdown in job growth.

Separate data showed the Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index rose to 17 in January, well ahead of 0.3 and ahead of expectations of 3.8.

Zerohedge, a financial blog, said the explosion in the Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index reversed the index’s recent collapse.

Greg Anderson, global head of fx strategy at bmo capital markets, said the data was positive, particularly from the Philadelphia Fed. It reduces the likelihood of an already low recession.

Bob Haberkorn, the senior market strategist at RJO Futures in New York, said gold was under pressure to weaken as trade conditions improved and the Middle East quieted down for now and markets cooled off from risk aversion.

Technically, the daily chart shows gold trading in a tight range, with the MACD green energy column looming, and the KDJ random index continuing to move lower, indicating that gold’s downside momentum is still there and another dip is possible.

On the 4-hour chart, gold staged a modest rebound, with the MACD red momentum column expanding slightly, but the KDJ random index was down overall, indicating a mixed near-term momentum for gold or a continued period of consolidation.

Fundamental negative factors:

1.Us retail sales rose 0.3 percent in December, compared with an expected rise of 0.3 percent and a previous gain of 0.2 percent, according to data released on Thursday. Comments pointed to a third straight month of growth in U.S. retail sales.

2. The number of Americans filing new claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 204,000 last week from 216,000 expected on Thursday, down from 214,000. U.S. jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week last week, ending a rally in early December and falling more than expected, suggesting the labor market remains strong despite a recent slowdown in job growth.

3. The Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index, released on Thursday, rose to 17 in January, well ahead of 0.3 and 3.8 expectations. Zerohedge, a financial blog, said the explosion in the Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index reversed the index’s recent collapse.

4. The US Senate voted 89-10 to approve the us-Mexico Canada agreement, which will be passed to President Trump to sign into law.

5.Liu He, a member of the political bureau of the communist party of China central committee, vice-premier of the state council and Chinese leader of the china-u.s. comprehensive economic dialogue and U.S. President Donald Trump officially signed the first phase of the china-u.s. economic and trade agreements. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Munchin said the trade deal would boost economic growth by 50 to 75 basis points.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. The US Senate on Thursday formally accepted articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, meaning the senate’s impeachment trial has officially begun. But Monday’s event is just one of many procedural activities ahead of the trial, which is expected to begin on Tuesday.

2. Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US house of representatives, has signed the latest articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Articles of impeachment are expected to be “escorted” to the Senate by seven house impeachment managers.

3.U.S. producer prices, released on Wednesday, rose to an annual rate of 1.3 percent in December, up from 1.1 percent but below expectations.

4. According to the New York times, U.S. forces have resumed joint operations with Iraq, despite the Iraqi parliament’s vote in favor of a U.S. withdrawal.

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