On Tuesday (November 3) in the Asian session, the DOLLAR index fell modestly, and is now trading below the 94 level, a weak dollar positive gold trend. Spot gold is currently around $1,896 / oz, with bulls targeting the $1,900 / oz mark in the short term. Analysts said gold was now well supported by investors’ heightened fears about coVID-19 and uncertainty over the outcome of the US presidential election. Investors are now focused on the US election, which has already seen record early voting Numbers.
Gold prices rose on Monday amid uncertainty over the OUTCOME of the U.S. presidential election, while a global novel Coronavirus case surge added to concerns about economic recovery, further boosting the appeal of safe-haven metals.
Spot gold closed at $1,894.79 an ounce on Monday, up 16.00 dollars, or 0.85 percent, after peaking at $1,895.77 an ounce. Gold extended its gains in Asian trading on Tuesday, touching as high as $1,898.45 an ounce.
The global epidemic continues to develop, and the epidemic in Europe and the United States is still developing rapidly. According to world real-time statistics, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally has exceeded 47.31 million, and the number of deaths from COVID-19 globally has exceeded 1.21 million. Nine countries — the United States, India, Brazil, Russia, Spain, Argentina, France, Colombia and the United Kingdom — now have more than 1 million confirmed cases. The United States, Brazil and India are the three countries with more than 100,000 cumulative deaths.
The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States has exceeded 9.56 million, an increase of more than 88,000 in a single day. The cumulative number of deaths is close to 237,000. Experts in the US have warned that the worst of the epidemic has yet to be seen in the US, and that the surge in new confirmed cases could outstrip the capacity of medical facilities, leading to a rapid rise in the number of deaths.
Will Cai, a partner at Wilshire Phoenix, said the impact of the U.S. election could last from a week to a few weeks, but the outbreak Will not dissipate anytime soon, the economic response on behalf of governments and central Banks Will continue for some time, and gold is expected to remain a strong portfolio in the months and even years ahead.
‘The possibility of post-election turmoil and disputed results represents a significant risk and, in the most extreme cases, could be very bullish for gold prices,’ RBC said. Meanwhile, a large swathe of Europe will go into lockdown this week as governments conclude that the Novel Coronavirus pandemic must be tackled with more drastic action.
Gold, seen as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, is up 25 per cent so far this year amid unprecedented global stimulus measures during the covid-19 pandemic.
Gold prices rose further on Monday, confirming a break above $1,882.40 an ounce and setting the stage for a test of $1,901.80, according to an article on Economies.com.
Gold needs to be monitored when it hits $1,901.80 an ounce, and if it breaks that level, the rally is expected to continue, with gold targeting the $1,934.86 area first, Economies.com said.
Us election countdown market volatility is likely to increase
As the US general election approaches polling day on Tuesday, the biggest unknown is whether the results will be known soon.
Carlo Alberto De Casa, ActivTrades’ chief analyst, said investors were moving to the sidelines as the US election approached.
Before Tuesday’s election, Mr. Biden was well ahead of Mr. Trump nationally. An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday found Biden with 52 percent support among registered voters and Trump with 42 percent.
Still, the race between Biden and Trump in the swing states looks very close.
The Senate election is also likely to be crucial for markets because many key policy shifts, including further fiscal stimulus, depend on who controls the majority.
“As investors wait for clarity on the U.S. election, the world remains largely on the sidelines,” Adam Crisafelli, founder of Vital Knowledge, said in a report On Sunday. With the election over, stimulus talks resuming in Washington, and further central bank support, the world may become clearer in just a few days.”
Td Securities said in a report on Monday that markets are counting down to Tuesday’s U.S. election and that the biggest risk is a delayed or hotly contested result. Heading into election night, the market is expecting a Democratic victory, which would be the biggest positive for gold, strategists at TD Securities said.
There are fears that the results of the election may not be known by Tuesday night as it could take days to count the votes.
In a “blue wave” scenario, gold prices could end up around 3 percent higher by Wednesday’s close, while unknown election results or disputed elections could send gold prices down as much as 4 percent by Wednesday’s close, according to TD Securities. Analysts at TD securities noted that current polls gave Biden, the Democratic candidate, 340 electoral votes and the Democrats 52 seats to take the Senate, but added that betting markets were expecting a tighter race on Tuesday.
Market watchers expect volatility to rise regardless of who becomes President or if the outcome is too late.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago, said: “We expect volatility to increase over the next 72 hours. So that’s why people are looking at gold and silver as a safe haven.”
“If the outcome is not clear, gold could return to the $1,940 / oz level,” Streible says. But whichever candidate wins, there is the potential for continued stimulus, with central Banks expanding their balance sheets and interest rates set to stay low for an extended period.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com, said that with this week’s controversial U.S. presidential election and the likely uncertainty surrounding it, safe-haven demand will pour into the gold market.
Peter Hug, head of global trading at Kitco Metals, said whether the vote was a “blue tide” or a “red tide” would have a positive impact on gold prices, with the “blue tide” likely to cause the biggest gold rally. The biggest risk, however, is that the outcome is uncertain or contested.
According to the latest Kitco News gold survey released on Friday, most analysts expect gold prices to rise this week. Eighteen analysts responded to the survey last week. A total of 12 analysts (67%) expect gold prices to rise this week; Meanwhile, two analysts (11%) think gold will fall and four (22%) think it will move sideways.
Standard Chartered says if Biden wins the U.S. election, the dollar will weaken and lead to more flows into emerging-market stocks and bonds denominated in local currencies.
Record early voting! Ninety-five million Americans have voted in the general election
The US presidential election is due to go to the polls on November 3 local time, but the severe impact of coVID-19 has led to a surge in people voting by mail or early at polling stations.
According to the United States Elections Project, a University of Florida, more than 95 million voters have cast early ballots, approaching 70 percent of the total for 2016.
As of Monday, more than 95 million U.S. voters had cast their ballots early, or 69 percent of the total for the 2016 election, Reuters reported. About 138 million Americans voted in the 2016 presidential election.
It’s worth noting that only 47 million people voted early before election Day 2016.
That means more than 45 percent of registered US voters have cast their ballots early, ACCORDING to CNN. According to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, the total number of early votes should exceed 100 million by election day.
Novel Coronavirus is still raging across the COUNTRY, and if you focus ona busy election day to vote, the chances of getting infected may increase dramatically. It was against this backdrop that a large number of people went to the polling stations early, either by mail or in person.
Some experts predict that this year’s presidential election will easily surpass the 138 million votes cast in 2016, based on this trend of robust voter participation.