On Friday (March 20) sub-market early trading, the u. s. dollar bulls are still aggressive, the u. s. dollar index briefly broke through 103. Spot gold, which had fallen sharply early in the session and was close to the $1,450 an ounce mark, has bounced back above $1,470 an ounce, but analysts said the market remained under downward pressure as prices fell below the $1,500 mark. Once the dollar index continues to strengthen, gold may still fall further. In addition, if global equity markets continue to tumble, gold prices could also take a hit.
The dollar index briefly breached 103
In early Asian trading on Friday, the dollar index rose above 103 for the first time since January 2017, hitting a high of 103.01. The dollar index pared gains to trade around 102.85.
The dollar index rose for a third straight day Thursday as concerns about the economic impact of the coronavirus boosted demand for the greenback. On Thursday, the dollar index.dxy hit a three-year high, rising 2 percent to as high as 102.86.
Marc Chandler, the chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex, said: “The dollar’s strength is actually a strong short-covering rally. It is used to finance a large part of the global capital cycle. The cycle of capital is now being reversed and funding money is being bought back.”
Dollar funding pressures have intensified across the board in spite of emergency injections of billions of dollars of liquidity by central Banks and the strengthening of swap lines with some of the world’s central banks in recent days.
With the unprecedented uncertainty of a coronavirus pandemic, investors are selling everything they can to keep their money. The coronavirus threatens to cripple the global economy.
“Global markets have confirmed that the dollar is king in really difficult times,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said in a report. “The massive grab for the dollar is perpetuating the turmoil in financial markets.”
The new crown pneumonia epidemic is spreading faster in the United States. The number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus in the United States has nearly doubled since 24 hours ago, with 13,159 cases and 176 deaths reported as of 17:43 a.m. Edt, according to Johns Hopkins University. U.S. officials say the number of confirmed cases will increase rapidly as testing is rolled out.
New York City mayor Blasio DE Blasio said Tuesday afternoon that the number of new cases of pneumonia diagnosed in the nation’s largest city jumped nearly 50 percent to 3,615 from fewer than 2,500 a few hours earlier, bringing the death toll to 22. In addition, New York City began opening more testing sites Monday, requiring people to be evaluated by a doctor and tested by appointment.
The us state department has raised its global travel alert to level four: do not travel, local media reported. This is the highest level of tourism safety alert issued by the state council. According to sources, secretary of state Mike Pompeo has approved the highest level of warning.
Gold prices after an early dive after the rebound is still not optimistic
Spot gold prices fell nearly 1 percent on Thursday as the dollar rose to multi-year highs and the coronavirus outbreak threatened to dent economic activity and prompt investors to sell assets to cash in.
Spot gold fell sharply in early Asian trading on Friday, hitting as low as $1454.86 an ounce. Gold then rebounded and is now above $1,470 an ounce.
‘gold continued its slide on Thursday and approached our long-awaited target of $1,453.10 an ounce,’ wrote an article on Economies.com.
Economies.com said it was now waiting for gold to fall further and fall below $1,453.10 an ounce, bringing down a target of $1,400.00. As long as gold stays below $1509.00 an ounce, gold is expected to remain bearish in the coming sessions.
Gold, traditionally known as a “safe haven”, usually does well during market sell-offs, but it has not been spared as the coronavirus pandemic has spread and global equity markets have tumbled.
Analysts said global equity markets could still fall sharply if the panic deepens, which could put pressure on investors to cash in on margin calls.
“It’s clear that gold’s safe-haven status is not holding and investors are moving to cash,” said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. In addition, we have seen extremely strong moves in the dollar over the past few sessions. “We do see more central banks around the world taking action against the coronavirus, and we do see safe-haven flows into the dollar.”
“The recent bond market rally, fueled by additional stimulus from governments and central Banks, has further fueled the precious metals frenzy,” Craig Erlam, an analyst at OANDA, said in a note.
The new coronavirus continued to spread around the world, infecting nearly 230,000 people, sparking panic and a sell-off in assets including safe-haven gold.
KC Chang, a precious metals analyst at IHS Markit, said on Thursday that the threat of a global recession and low inflationary pressures would continue to drag gold lower, which is already vulnerable as volatility continues to rattle financial markets.
Chang said in a telephone interview with Kitco News that he expects gold to fall to $1,300 an ounce as the global economy is affected by the spreading coronavirus.
“Our expectations for gold are much lower in the second half as investors continue to hoard cash,” he said.
If the economy continues to weaken and is worse than economists expect, gold could even fall back to 2015 levels, when it hit a bottom of $1,050 an ounce, Chang added.