As the outbreak of pneumonia spread around the world, markets suffered a “black Monday” : overnight, U.S. stocks fell more than 1,000 points, the VIX fear index surged 50 percent, spot gold peaked near the 1690 mark, but fell back to around 1660 in late trade, and crude oil plunged 4 percent. The market could be on course for an oversold rally this session, but if the global outbreak accelerates further, a fresh bout of heavy selling could be imminent, with central bank policy and fiscal stimulus in mind.
The global epidemic is spreading rapidly
According to the latest data from China’s national health and construction commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on February 24, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps reported 508 new confirmed cases, 71 new deaths (68 in hubei, two in shandong and one in guangdong) and 530 new suspected cases. On the same day, 2,589 new cases were cured and discharged from hospital, 15,758 close contacts were released from medical observation, and 789 cases of severe illness were reduced.
There were 499 new confirmed cases in hubei (464 in wuhan), 2,116 cured and discharged cases (1,391 in wuhan), 68 new deaths (56 in wuhan), 43,369 confirmed cases (34,691 in wuhan), and 8,675 severe cases (7,647 in wuhan).
Notably, the number of new confirmed cases outside hubei dropped to single digits for the first time, to nine. Meanwhile, more than 1,000 people were cured and discharged from hospitals across the country for 13 consecutive days on February 24.
China’s approach is the only one that has proved successful, said Bruce aylward, head of the china-who joint investigation team, at a press conference on Thursday. Many people say there is no medicine, no vaccine, so nothing can be done. China’s approach is to use whatever is available and save as many lives as possible.
While the outbreak in China continues to be brought under control, the global epidemic is showing signs of spreading, raising concerns.
A total of 850 new cases of coronary pneumonia were confirmed in Japan on February 24, NHK television reported. On the same day, the Japanese government held a meeting of experts to discuss the new outbreak of coronary pneumonia countermeasures. Experts at the meeting said there were cases in many parts of Japan that could spread quickly. The next week or two will be crucial in determining whether the outbreak subsides or worsens. If the disease spreads further, Japan’s health care system could collapse and social and economic activity could plunge into chaos.
A total of 60 new cases of coronary pneumonia have been confirmed in South Korea, bringing the total number of cases to 893, the central department of epidemic prevention said Wednesday morning.
South Korea’s ruling Democratic Party of Korea, the government and the presidential blue house jointly decided Friday to take the maximum blockade measures on daegu and gyeongsang north to prevent the further spread of the new outbreak of pneumonia, yonhap news agency reported. The government will test all members of the “xintiandi” church for the new coronavirus and make the results public at any time, the ministry of disaster safety of the central committee of the republic of Korea (rok) said Wednesday. Xintiandi church has agreed to provide a list of all its members and contact information to support the health department’s testing efforts.
The number of confirmed cases of the new type of pneumonia in Italy has risen to 230 and the total number of deaths has risen to five, according to a report by the Italian ministry of emergency civil protection Thursday, euroaccess reported, citing the Europa news agency.
A team of experts from the world health organization and the European centre for disease control and prevention (CDC) has arrived in Italy to help the Italian government control the outbreak of the new coronavirus, the world health organization’s regional office for Europe said in a statement. The expert group will provide support in clinical management, infection prevention and control, outbreak monitoring and crisis communication. The statement says efforts are focused on controlling further human-to-human transmission of the virus. While the rapid increase in confirmed cases in Italy over the past two days is worrisome, it should be noted that 80 percent of these cases have no or only mild symptoms, the statement added.
Crazy night! The dow jones industrial average plunged more than 1,000 points to near 1690
The dow jones industrial average fell 3.56%, or more than 1,000 points, to close below its 100-day moving average at 27960.80 for the first time since October. The NASDAQ fell 3.71% to 9,221.28; The s&p 500 fell 3.35 percent to 3,225.89. The dow and s&p 500 had their biggest one-day declines since February 2018, while the NASDAQ had its biggest one-day drop since December 2018.
Separately, European stocks posted their biggest one-day fall since mid-2016.
Investors dumped stocks on the belief that China’s coronavirus outbreak could become a global pandemic, with devastating and deadly consequences worldwide, as infections in South Korea, Italy and Iran soar.
Benedict, chief executive of The Opportunistic Trader (Larry Benedict), said the U.S. stock market may soon begin to 10% to 15% of The callback, part of the market, especially The big tech, seems to be excessive, seem to have more things to do.
Quincy Krosby, the chief market strategist at prudential financial, says the market has been optimistic about the spread of public health emergencies. Yet this optimistic stance is being tested as companies assess their suppliers and supply chains to see if their revenues will slow, which is why it has become a sell now, ask later market.
Spot gold surged more than $40 to a seven-year high near $1,689 last day as U.S. stocks tumbled, though it soon fell back to around $1660 in late trade. Gold fell nearly $20 in Asian trading on Tuesday and is now trading around 1650.
TD Securities strategist Daniel Ghali said any pullback and consolidation in the gold market in the afternoon will be seen as a buying opportunity because it is not just safe-haven demand that is driving prices higher. “Gold has more to go. This bull market is just beginning.”
Bob Haberkorn, the senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said he was referring to concerns about the new coronavirus: “the market is spooked right now. The concern is not the virus itself, but the economics. The dow jones industrial average fell about a thousand points and Treasury yields fell.”
Jeffrey Halley, the senior market analyst at Oanda, said the gold market is finally showing significant momentum, and sooner or later gold will test resistance at $1,700 an ounce.
“Usually after a breakout like this, funds come in long, so there’s a lot of technical buying going on,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets. Meir said the near-term upside target for gold was $1,700 an ounce.
Despite the rise in risk aversion, the dollar’s safe-haven appeal was muted by a sharp drop in U.S. stocks, with the U.S. index little changed overnight at around 99.30. On Tuesday, the U.S. index continued to hover around this level during the Asian session.
Marvin Loh, the senior global market strategist at State Street Global Markets, said: “at the end of the day, this is a risk off-trade. When you look at the yen, when you look at the Swiss franc, when you look at interest rates, it’s a safe haven trade. In part, this may reflect the market’s overoptimism so far. So it’s a process of adjustment.”
Oil prices fell nearly 4 percent on Monday as investors grew more concerned about the impact on oil demand as a new coronavirus outbreak spread rapidly outside China.
“Reports of the spread of the coronavirus have raised more concerns about demand disruptions,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago.
WHO: new coronary pneumonia still not a pandemic
This trading day, the market continues to focus on the spread of the disease in the world.
The director-general of the world health organization (who), tandesay, stressed Thursday that the rapid increase in confirmed cases in Italy, Iran and South Korea is a great concern. However, despite the potential for a new outbreak of coronary pneumonia to develop into a “pandemic”, who’s assessment does not yet constitute a “pandemic”.
In deciding whether to use the term “pandemic” to describe an outbreak, who continually assesses the geographic spread of the virus, the severity of the disease it causes and its impact on society as a whole, tenders explained. Who has not yet seen “uncontrolled” global spread of the new coronavirus, nor a large number of severe cases or deaths? “What we are seeing is that outbreaks in different parts of the world are affecting countries in different ways and need to be tailored to local conditions.”
‘the current use of the term’ pandemic ‘is not true,’ he said. ‘there is no doubt it will cause panic and do nothing to stop infections or save lives.’ He said it was time for all countries, communities, families, and individuals to focus on containing the outbreak and preparing for a possible “pandemic.” Who will conduct an ongoing risk assessment to monitor the evolution of the outbreak?
Speaking at the same event, Michael Ryan, executive director of the who’s health emergency program, said a “pandemic” means the global population is at risk of contracting the disease, with some of them likely to end up with it. But it now appears that the number of confirmed cases in China has fallen significantly as a result of the strong resistance to the virus, contradicting the logic of a pandemic.
Ryan stressed that it was too early to declare the new outbreak a “pandemic” and that preparations were being made for a possible pandemic. “We are still trying to avoid making it a reality, and some countries have succeeded in doing so.”