On Wednesday (April 1) sub-session, the dollar index recovered slightly, is now above the 99 level. Spot gold also rose modestly, breaking above the $1,580 an ounce mark. Investors will be treated to a raft of key data on Wednesday night, with the closely watched us ADP employment report, known as the “little non-farm” report, expected to turn negative, and the us ISM manufacturing data also on the radar screen. Analysts said the dollar could suffer if key U.S. data performed poorly, while gold could get a boost. In terms of the global epidemic, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases has exceeded 860,000 and the total number of deaths has exceeded 42,000.
“Small non-farm” ADP sounded a negative warning
After a startling rise of nearly 3.3 million in U.S. initial claims on Thursday, global investors are holding their breath for a slew of U.S. jobs data this week, including Wednesday’s small non-farm ADP report, Thursday’s jobless claims data and Friday’s non-farm payrolls report.
Nomura Global Markets Research said weekly U.S. jobless claims were just the prelude to a ‘data horror show’ that other U.S. macro data sets due this week are expected to show.
At 20:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, “small non-agricultural” ADP data is expected to be the first to issue a negative warning. U.S. ADP employment is expected to have fallen by 150,000 in March from a gain of 183,000, according to a media survey.
ADP measures monthly changes in non-agricultural private sector employment, and those private small and medium-sized enterprises are the biggest victims of the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak, globally.
In addition to the small non-farm data on Wednesday, investors will also focus on the U.S. ISM manufacturing data. At 22:00 Beijing time on Wednesday, the U.S. ISM manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for march is expected to fall to 45 from 50.1 the previous month.
Analysts said the dollar could take a hit if U.S. ADP and manufacturing data performed poorly, which would be positive for gold. Worries about the economic outlook also spurred safe-haven buying, which also helped gold.
Spot gold rebounded above the $1,580 an ounce mark in Asian trading on Wednesday. Gold prices fell more than 2 percent on Tuesday to their lowest level in a week.
According to Economies.com, gold could resume its main bullish trend once it breaks through $1,599.10 an ounce.
On Tuesday, the federal reserve took the latest step to expand the ability of dozens of foreign central Banks to access dollars during the coronavirus crisis. This is one of a series of steps the federal reserve has taken to address liquidity problems caused by the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic. As the supply of dollars has expanded, that has had a bit of an impact on the shine.
The dollar index was trading around 99.15 in Asian trading on Wednesday.
Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at bank of nova scotia in Toronto, said: “it’s going to be difficult for the dollar to extend much of its rally at this point because there is a relatively large amount of dollar cash coming out of the fed.”
“The most important data for the market is the institute for supply management manufacturing data due on Wednesday,” said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade.
Mr Aslam said gold’s fall below $1,600 an ounce was “an opportunity to increase gold holdings in the portfolio”.
Kathy Lien, managing director at BK asset management, wrote on Tuesday that from Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls survey, “we will see for the first time how bad march non-farm payrolls could be.” Economists’ expectations of a 150,000 private-sector job loss seem overly optimistic, given the 3.28 million claims in the last initial claims report compared with the 3.5 million expected in the week ended March 28. Given the sharp declines in the Philadelphia and New York manufacturing indexes, BK expects nationwide manufacturing activity to contract sharply in March.
Initial claims remain the key number to watch for this week. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits may continue to rise at 20:30 GMT on Thursday, with media surveys forecasting 3.15 million claims this week. Capital Economics expects it to climb to 5m.
The labor department reported last Thursday that initial claims for jobless benefits jumped to 3.28 million in the week ended March 21. That beat the peak of 665,000 in March 2009 during the great recession and the previous high of 695,000 set in October 1982.
At 20:30 (Beijing time) on Friday, non-farm payrolls were the biggest story of the week, with markets forecasting a loss of 100,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate expected to hit 4 percent.
Mr Trump said the us was facing a very painful two weeks
According to the latest statistics, the global total number of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 860,000, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 42,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the us exceeded 187,000, still the most in the world.
According to the latest data from BNO, the number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 860,000, reaching 860,624. There were 42,176 fatal cases. The United States had the highest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world, with more than 187,000 cases and 187,321 cases.
Other major overseas countries, Italy COVID – 19 accumulative total of 105792 cases of the patients, Spain has confirmed 95923 cases, Germany has confirmed 71808 cases, confirmed 52128 cases of France, and Iran has confirmed 44605 cases, the diagnosis of 25150 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 16605 cases, Turkey has confirmed 13531 cases, Belgium has confirmed 12775 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 12595 cases over the South Korea confirmed 9786 cases.
According to the world health organization, there are currently 202 countries and regions with COVID 19 cases.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday prepared Americans for an imminent surge in coronavirus cases. Trump called a novel coronavirus a plague and said the United States was facing “a very, very painful two weeks.”
“It’s going to be a tough two weeks,” Trump said at a White House news conference on Tuesday. When you see this kind of death caused by this invisible enemy, it’s incredible.”
New York state, the epicentre of the us outbreak, has confirmed more than 75,000 cases, with at least 1,550 deaths, up from 1,218 the previous day. Of these, there have been more than 40,000 confirmed cases in New York City and more than 1,000 covid-19 deaths in New York City. New York governor Andrew cuomo said Tuesday that the state’s outbreak may not peak for three weeks.
Earlier Tuesday, preliminary data from the centers for disease control and prevention showed that people with diabetes, chronic lung disease, heart disease or smoking may be at increased risk of serious complications and even death if they are infected with the coronavirus.
Morgan Stanley, a leading investment bank, expects the number of COVID 19 deaths to increase exponentially in the us, making the April 30 target of lifting outbreak controls unlikely to be met. Morgan Stanley expects the number of covid-19 cases in the us to rise to 570,000 in the next 20 days.