Decision Analysis: Gold has just returned to above 1800! A big carnival in the global market! The two “heritors” behind them are fighting against non-agriculture today!

During the Asian trading session on Friday (February 5), global stock markets approached record highs. Asian stocks followed the U.S. stock market. Global recovery trading was dominated. The US dollar was basically flat. Gold tried to return to the 1,800 mark after yesterday’s plunge.

As of the close, Australia’s ASX200 index closed up 1.11%; the Nikkei 225 index closed up 1.54%; South Korea’s KOSPI index closed up 1.07%. A shares are under pressure.

Yesterday, several major indexes in the US stock market all rose by more than 1%. The Nasdaq Index and S&P 500 Index reached new highs.

The current market sentiment is positive. On the one hand, the economic data released by the United States has eased concerns; on the other hand, hopes for Biden’s new stimulus plan have once again risen.

The U.S. employment data released in the past two days were better than expected, stimulating optimism about non-agricultural employment data later today.

The U.S. Department of Labor first filed for unemployment benefits last week with 779,000 people, a decrease of 33,000 and an expected 830,000. In addition, the January ADP employment data released on February 3 showed that the total number of that month reached 119.8 million, and the number of new jobs was 174,000, which was much higher than the 49,000 expected by the market.

At the same time, expectations of the Biden government’s large-scale stimulus measures also support risk appetite. The longer-term U.S. Treasury yields have risen due to expectations that Washington will introduce a large-scale anti-epidemic rescue bill, and inflation expectations are heating up.

Economic data, performance news, and remarks about the $1.9 trillion stimulus plan are “good for Wall Street,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management. “This is why we see the market continue to rise.”

“What drives the market is that corporate profits are recovering strongly,” said Jumpei Tanaka, a strategist at Pictet. “There is a large amount of money deposited in assets such as MMF (Money Market Fund). As the vaccination program advances, once the economy is normal If it is changed, those funds may be invested in the stock market.”

In the foreign exchange market, the exchange rates of major currencies have not changed much so far, and the strength of the US dollar this week has been temporarily stopped due to expectations of the non-agricultural employment report.

Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “In the short term, the US economic outlook will undergo a fundamental change. We believe that the US economic outlook will greatly exceed the Eurozone.”

In terms of commodities, the price of gold falling below $1,800 is an ominous sign, as the bears are starting to pay attention to the November low of $1,764.80, while silver is rebounding from some support levels of $26.00, but the shorts continue to maintain short-term control because the price remains at Below two key hourly moving averages.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that the steepening of the bond yield curve “ultimately means that the cost of holding gold is rising. In response to the idea that the US and global economies are recovering, gold prices may fall further and consolidate.” Melek added that silver may benefit from industrial demand.

Looking at this trading day, the market focused on the US non-agricultural employment report. At 21:30 on Friday, Hong Kong time, investors will usher in the US January non-agricultural employment report, which is the most watched economic indicator in the day.

Media surveys show that the non-agricultural employment population is expected to increase by 100,000 after the January seasonal adjustment in the United States, after a decrease of 140,000 last month. The US unemployment rate in January is expected to remain at 6.7%. The average hourly wage rate in the United States in January is expected to increase by 0.3% per month, and the annual rate is expected to increase by 5%.

Analysis of major currencies:

Euro: EUR/USD continues to be under pressure after falling for 4 consecutive days, and is currently trading near the 1.1.1970 mark. From a technical perspective, from the 4-hour chart, the MACD green kinetic energy column weakened again, the RSI indicator rebounded from the oversold level, and the KDJ indicator hit the oversold level, indicating that the price has been oversold in the short term, and the price may stabilize next, but further declines are not ruled out Possible. The short-term initial support is at 1.1925, and the initial resistance can be seen at 1.2000.

Pound Sterling: The pound/dollar bottomed strongly yesterday and rebounded once approaching the 1.37 mark. Continue to test this level in the day. From a technical perspective, from the 4-hour chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column gradually expanded, the RSI indicator remained stable above the 50 level, and the KDJ indicator approached the overbought level, suggesting that the price may rebound further. The short-term initial support is at 1.3620, and the initial resistance can be seen at 1.3710.

Japanese Yen: USD/JPY rebounded strongly yesterday and broke through the 105.50 mark, consolidating at a high level in the day. From a technical perspective, from the 4-hour chart, the MACD red kinetic energy column is relatively weak, the RSI indicator is trading near the overbought level, and the KDJ indicator hits the overbought level. It is expected that the price rise will slow down or be further consolidated. The short-term initial support is at 105.00 and the initial resistance is at 105.70.

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