As of 1:20 a.m. Et on Wednesday, DEMOCRATIC presidential candidate Joe Biden was ahead of President Donald Trump, according to votes counted on fox, ABC and other mainstream media outlets, but FX168 announced in advance that Trump would win the election after a careful analysis of the race. This is because most of the key swing state of counting is not over, but according to current progress, there is a big probability will trump scored tickets (18), Pennsylvania, Ohio state (20), north Carolina (15), (16) and Wisconsin, Michigan (10) and so on several big swing states, thus will obtain the 270 votes needed to win. So, as in the 2016 election, Mr Trump’s surprise victory came against a backdrop of strong consensus among mainstream polls in favour of the Democratic nominee.
A Swing state, or Swing States, is a characteristic expression in U.S. elections in which the two sides are evenly matched and each has a noticeable advantage, and in previous elections often tilting toward different political parties and pushing another one another. These “swing states” are often the battleground states, especially the “key swing states” that ultimately determine the outcome of the general election. Compared with “safe” states where one candidate has a clear advantage, “swing” states are often places where both campaigns can lock in a win.
In the 2016 election, for example, Mr Trump clinched victory by winning six of the 10 most competitive swing states, including Florida. As a result, swing states tend to be the places where the media and candidates pay the most attention and spend more campaign resources. Take this election for example. During September, Trump and Biden attended 10 campaign events in Pennsylvania, and the candidates actually call the state home, which shows the importance of the state.
One characteristic of swing states is their demographics: urban areas tend to vote Democratic, while suburbs tend to vote Republican. If the results are anything to go by, Pennsylvania looks like a good match. Philadelphia, in the east, is the state’s most populous and largest city, but the vast suburbs around Philadelphia are also strong voting forces. Had the Democrats not had Philadelphia, a big city, Pennsylvania would have been a red state, not a swing state, for the Republicans. In 2016, Clinton picked up more votes in Philadelphia and the southwestern megapaise of Pittsburgh, but lost to Trump in most suburbs.
With 56 percent of the votes counted so far in Pennsylvania, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 15.6 percent. The state has voted Democratic in every U.S. election since 1992, but In 2016, Trump won all of Pennsylvania’s electoral votes.
Turning red in The Rust Belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin could prove crucial to Mr Trump’s chances. The most populous state in the rust Belt, with 20 electoral votes and fifth place out of 55 states, is clearly the key to its victory.
Trump also has a lead over Biden in two other Rust Belt states based on the count so far. With 52 percent of the votes counted in Michigan, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 11.2 percent. Michigan held its first U.S. presidential election in 1910. Following the rapid rise of the economy, the state became an important center for unions, with unions such as the United Auto Workers. Michigan is still the leader of the U.S. auto industry. With a population of nearly 10m, Michigan is an influential state, the eighth most populous of the 50 states.
With 74 percent of votes counted in Wisconsin as of writing, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 5.3 percent. Wisconsin is a classic swing state. In recent years, the leader of the state’s republican voters through strict identity method and the disintegration of organized labor unions and a series of reform of the electoral system, consolidate and expand their relative advantage in the election, the democratic base shrinking, the republican party’s vote proportion relative rise, eventually under the “winner takes all” system, trump in 2016 won the state.
According to projections by several US media outlets, Mr Trump won Florida, a crucial state for his re-election, and its 29 electoral college votes. Florida is the largest swing state in the us and is seen as a must-win state for Mr Trump.
In addition, as of 23:56 EASTERN Time on November 3, according to the latest Fox News statistics, Donald Trump won the key state of Texas. So far, Trump has 204 electoral college votes, while Biden has 227.
Texas, like most southern states, has historically been part of the Democratic southern establishment. Texas has become almost a synonym and model for the modern red state since it was absorbed into the Republican party as a new stronghold in the 1980s. George Bush and George Bush won the Republican party three presidential elections in all, making Texas more important to the Republican party.
Among other key swing states, Ohio is the linchpin of the race, as the winning presidential candidate in Ohio has won the White House in every one of the past 60 years. “Whoever wins Ohio wins” has almost become a “curse” in the American election. Former President Barack Obama won The state in both his two terms. Likewise, no Republican President has won the White House without winning Ohio, and Even Trump himself said, “You can’t win unless you win Ohio.”
With 94 percent of votes counted in the key swing state of Ohio as of writing, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 8.1 percent. Every time since 1944, with one exception, Ohio has supported a presidential candidate who has come out on top. In 1960, Ohio voted for Nixon, but it was Democrat John Kennedy who won. So far, no Republican candidate has won the presidency without winning Ohio.
Mr Trump also leads Mr Biden in several other key swing states.
With 94 percent of votes counted in North Carolina, Trump’s lead over Biden has widened to 1.4 percent. Morgan Stanley’s chief political strategist Michael Zezas previously said that for investors, “the key time will be when the market reaches a conclusion about who will win, not when the candidate concedes defeat or the media announces the winner.” After the votes are counted in Florida and North Carolina on election night, the markets will be able to judge roughly who is the winner.
With 52 percent of the votes counted, Mr Trump’s lead over Mr Biden has widened to 12.2 per cent. Michigan held its first U.S. presidential election in 1910. Following the rapid rise of the economy, the state became an important center for unions, with unions such as the United Auto Workers. Michigan is still the leader of the U.S. auto industry. With a population of nearly 10m, Michigan is an influential state, the eighth most populous of the 50 states.
Frank Lentz, a veteran Republican pollster and political strategist, told CNBC on Tuesday that he would closely watch the results in North Carolina, Florida and Ohio, which he said were key bellwethers in determining the outcome of the election between incumbent President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden.
“If Trump wins these three states, he will win,” Mr. Lentz said. “If Joe Biden wins at least one of these three elections, he will be President.”
Lentz predicted earlier On Tuesday that if Trump wins all three key states, the race could come down to Pennsylvania, “because they take the longest time to count. We won’t know the winner in Pennsylvania for at least the next 48 hours, maybe 72 hours.”
Still, Mr. Lentz said he thought Ohio, North Carolina and Florida were crucial because they could be announced as early as Wednesday morning local time, giving a strong picture of Mr. Trump’s overall chances of winning a second term.
On the eve of the election, Mr Trump attended rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Mr. Biden held rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Monday.
With the novel Coronavirus epidemic prompting a surge in mail-poll Numbers, Lentz urged Americans to be patient as state results are released.
“I don’t think this is going to be resolved in 24 hours. I don’t think it will last until Dec. 1 either, “he said On Tuesday. “But I think it will take two or three days, and people may get the wrong impression because of the early count.”
“This could be a long election week, and now it looks like the [final result] in the U.S. presidential election will come down to the Midwest.” As for the 2020 US presidential election, the Guardian made this prediction in its live coverage. In a live broadcast, election officials in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were quoted as saying they would not announce the winners of their states on the night of November 3 eastern Time.