Last session market review
The dollar rose modestly during the day and is currently trading around 100.70. Spot gold, meanwhile, tumbled to a low of $1608.60 an ounce and has since recovered slightly. Crude fell more than 10 percent at one point in the opening session as an emergency OPEC + meeting was postponed.
This trading day will focus on the global situation of COVID-19 outbreak.
Fx: eur/usd 1.0808; The pound closed at $1.2261; The Australian dollar closed at 0.5995; Dollar/yen closed at 108.45; Us $1.4201; The dollar was last at 0.9777 Swiss francs.
Commodities: spot gold closed at $1,617.41 an ounce; Comex gold ended at $1645.70 an ounce; Spot silver settled at $14.45 an ounce; Comex silver ended at $14.494 an ounce; Brent crude closed at $34.11 a barrel; NYMEX crude closed at $28.34 a barrel.
In the currency market
Euro: the euro fell for a fifth day, or 0.44%, to 1.0808. On a technical level, the euro is still on track to fall from 1.1147 to a low of 1.0635. A decisive breakthrough would confirm the recovery of a larger downtrend. On the upside, a break above 1.0926 minor resistance will extend the rally from 1.0635. More resistance was at the 61.8% retracement level of the 1.1496 to 1.0635 decline at 1.1167.
Sterling: the pound/dollar was choppy in recent days, falling after rising the previous day to close 1.05% lower at 1.2261. Technically, the sterling/dollar outlook remains unchanged, biased towards a neutral. A downtrend such as a break below 1.2144 minor support would indicate the completion of a rebound from 1.1409 and would be biased downward to retest the low of 1.1409. The upside direction, such as a sustained breakthrough the 61.8% retracement 1.2516 between 1.3200 and 1.1409, will increase the chances of a bigger reversal and turn the focus first to the 1.3200 resistance level.
Yen: dollar/yen turned higher, closing 0.50% higher at 108.45. Technically, dollar/yen is neutral. As long as 106.75 support holds steady, it is likely to rebound further. A break above 109.70 will skew it back up to 111.71. A decisive break above 112.22 would release a larger bullish signal, with the next target at 114.54 resistance. The downside direction, such as a decisive break below 106.75 support, should confirm the completion of a rally from 101.18 after its failure at key resistance level 112.22.
The stock market
U.S. and European stocks closed lower on Friday, capping another tumultuous week as investors digested a U.S. jobs report and a surge in deaths from a novel coronavirus in New York. The dow Jones industrial average fell 360.91 points, or 1.7%, to 21,052.53. The s&p 500 fell 1.5% to 2,488.65. The nasdaq composite index fell 1.5% to 7,373.08.
European stock markets closed lower on Friday, ending another turbulent week in a deepening new crisis. The pan-european stoxx 600 closed down nearly 1 percent, led by a 4.6 percent drop in oil and gas shares, while the health care sector bucked the trend, rising 0.8 percent. Germany’s DAX closed down 43.82 points, or 0.46%, at 9,527.00. Britain’s ftse 100 closed down 66.22 points, or 1.21 percent, at 5,414.00. France’s cac-40 index closed down 65.09 points, or 1.54%, at 4155.86. Spain’s IBEX35 index closed up 31.75 points, or 0.48%, at 6,605.85. Italy’s ftse closed down 344.53 points, or 2.05%, at 16,489.50. The euro stoxx 50 index ended the day down 21.14 points, or 0.79%, at 2667.35.
The bond market
Long-term Treasury yields fell on Friday (April 3) after the march jobs report showed a surge in job cuts, suggesting the economic damage caused by the COVID 19 crisis. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell 3 basis points to 0.59 per cent, while the yield on the 30-year note also fell to 1.23 per cent. Bond yields are inversely proportional to prices. The 10-year Treasury note is down 12 basis points this week.
International spot gold started at $1613.26 an ounce in early trading on Friday, rising as high as $1625.04 an ounce and dipping as low as $1605.00 to close at $1617.41, up $5.78, or 0.36 percent, but down $7.83, or 0.48 percent, for the week.
COMEX June gold futures closed up $8, or 0.49 percent, at $1645.70 an ounce.
Oil prices closed higher on Friday, a record weekly gain, on expectations that the battle between Saudi Arabia and Russia will end and that global oil producers will resume production cuts. U.S. WTI crude for May delivery closed up $3.02, or 12 percent, at $28.34 a barrel. WTI crude hit an 18-year low of $19.27 on Monday. After two days of gains, WTI crude ended the week up 32 percent, fell 4.1 percent last week, fell 54 percent last month and fell 66 percent in the first quarter. Brent crude for June delivery rose $4.717, or 14 percent, to $34.11 a barrel. Brent crude is up 37% this week, down 7.6% last week, down 48% last month and 61% in the first quarter.