On Monday morning in Asia, the U.S. dollar index was little changed, while spot gold maintained a strong rally. Gold recently broke through the $1,750 / oz barrier, and we need to keep a close eye on whether the gold price can maintain above this level. Fears of a second outbreak of the global COVID-19 pandemic are now driving gold prices higher, analysts said. Geopolitics, including relations with the US, have also supported gold prices. This week, investors will continue to focus on the epidemic, geopolitical developments, but also need to pay attention to the U.S. GDP, PCE price index and other important economic data, is expected to have an impact on the dollar, gold trend.
Gold prices rose sharply on Friday as a rise in coronavirus cases raised fears of a second outbreak that could force governments to impose new lockdowns.
International spot gold rose as high as $1745.00 an ounce on Friday, closing at $1742.84, up $21.03, or 1.22 percent.
Bearish comments from Federal Reserve officials also sparked an uptick in safe-haven demand on Friday. Boston Federal Reserve Chairman Dennis Rosengren said the possibility of a second coronavirus outbreak could prolong the economic stagnation and derail the rebound.
“So far, U.S. containment efforts have not been particularly successful,” Rosengren said at a virtual event organized by the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce. This lack of containment could eventually lead to longer lockouts, which in turn could lead to lower consumption and investment and higher unemployment.”
Spot gold extended Friday’s gains in early Asian trading on Monday, with prices as high as $1,751.20 an ounce.
The popular financial website Economies.com said the price of gold had risen further and was close to its long-awaited target of $1,765.00 an ounce, reinforcing expectations that the price would remain bullish for some time to come.
If gold breaks through $1,765.00 an ounce, the bullish trend is likely to continue, with the next target at $1,810.00, According to Economies.com. Economies.com added that it was important for gold to stay above $1,721.00 an ounce, the first condition for continued bullish expectations.
Precious metals analysts do not rule out further gains this week as they keep a close eye on economic data, COVID-19 reinfection rates and geopolitical tensions.
Gold bulls are looking for gold to break through $1,750 an ounce, a strong resistance level. Whether gold can stay above that level will be the key question this week.
Markets have focused on these factors this week
Now fears of a second outbreak have been the main driver of gold’s rally.
World real-time statistics show that the cumulative number of confirmed coVID-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 9.03 million. The United States has the world’s largest number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, with more than 2.35 million cases and more than 122,000 deaths.
Florida reported 97,291 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on June 21, up from 3,494 the day before, Bloomberg reported. In Florida, cases rose 3.7% in the past day, compared with an average increase of 3.5% in the previous seven days. The death toll in the state has risen to 3,161, up 0.5% from the previous day. Many experts say Florida, which has the highest proportion of elderly people in the country, could be the epicenter of a new outbreak.
Novel Coronavirus is still fast spreading around the world and countries need to prevent a new epidemic peak, according to who on June 19. “Novel Coronavirus is still rapidly spreading and most people are still at risk of infection,” SAID WHO Director-General Tedros Tedros at a regular press briefing.
Novel Coronavirus is still rapidly spreading, large Numbers of people are still susceptible and the world is in a new “dangerous phase,” Tedros notes. Tedros also noted that there is no vaccine available globally against a Novel Coronavirus. He said the vaccine should be safe and available to all who need it.
Analysts at Nomura Global Markets Research warned that the rise in cases could slow the recovery. Analysts at the bank said on Thursday that “for the 10 US states we cover — the five largest by GDP and the five most rapidly reopening — the risk of a second outbreak is becoming increasingly apparent in Texas, Florida, Mississippi, Alaska, Montana, Tennessee and Georgia”.
“People are worried about another outbreak in the U.S., which gives gold more room to move higher,” said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities.
Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Alternative Investments, said: “CoVID-19 is on the rise in the south and south-west of the US and hospital admissions are on the rise. That raises the spectre of another blockade, which will benefit gold.”
Analysts believe a key driver this week will remain tensions between The US and China.
“One of the important things I’m looking at is tensions with China,” said Everett Millman, precious metals expert at Gainesville Coins. “The worse the situation gets, the more investors will flock to safe havens.”
Top us and Chinese officials held talks in Hawaii last Wednesday, but then US President Donald Trump again threatened to cut ties with China.
Afshin Nabavi, senior vice President of precious metals trader MKS SA, said, “If there is economic tension due to COVID-19 and tensions between China and the United States, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the high end of the range. Ultimately, we should be heading toward $1,800 and above by the end of the year.”
Analysts are waiting for the dollar to weaken, which would push gold higher.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group in New York, said the dollar’s pullback will benefit gold.
“When we start reopening, you get a sense of uncertainty about what’s going to happen and the economy starts to stall,” says Nedoss.
‘The dollar has entered a consolidation phase,’ ing currency strategists said Friday.
On the data front, investors will focus on Thursday’s U.S. durable goods report and first-quarter GDP data, as well as U.S. housing data throughout the week, including Monday’s existing home sales, Tuesday’s new home sales and Wednesday’s home price index.
“Mortgage applications continue to surge as low borrowing costs and ample credit provide a positive outlook for the housing market,” ing economists said on Friday. However, given the length of time it will take to complete a home purchase, we are not expecting much in May. “As for durable goods orders, we should see some sort of rebound, but it’s unlikely to be as strong as the consumer sector.”
U.S. jobless claims data on Thursday and the PCE price index due on Friday will also be in focus.
Gold prices are expected to continue to rise
According to a Kitco gold survey released Friday, respondents are bullish about the performance of gold in the coming week. Sixteen Wall Street professionals responded to the survey. Nine professionals (56%) expect gold to rise, while only two (13%) expect it to fall. Five other professionals (31%) were neutral.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, said a breakthrough was “long overdue” after about three months of consolidation.
Kitco senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff said he expects gold to move higher “as bulls show resilience in the global stock market rally.”
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, was one of several Wall Street professionals who said they were looking to gold to test the $1,760 area.
Eureka Mining report editor Richard Baker has a $1,760 price target this week and expects gold to rise to $1,800 or higher this year.
Gold prices ended the week ona positive note, said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, as “the rise in China and the US novel Coronavirus case accelerated the shift to havens.”
He told MarketWatch: “Investors are on high alert because of the coVID-19 outbreak and despite a slight rise in stocks, global sentiment remains fragile and there is a strong sense of caution in the air. If risk aversion becomes the dominant theme, expect gold to shine in the gloom over the next few weeks.”
In a research note Friday, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month gold price forecast by 11% to $2,000 an ounce, citing low real interest rates and currency fears.
Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Alternative Investments, said stimulus measures would continue to be introduced around the world regardless of the long-term consequences, such as inflation, which would support gold prices for the long term.
Gold prices have risen about 15 per cent this year, helped by fears of an economic slowdown and safe-haven demand from governments and central Banks for unprecedented fiscal and monetary support that has lowered bond yields and raised inflation fears.