Gold for investment: us epidemic kills more people than 9/11! The peak in the next two weeks? Gold price after the collapse of “small non-agricultural”!

Spot gold was trading around $1,580 after a steep sell-off in the Asian session, with the focus on U.S. ADP employment data in the evening.

Gold fell as much as $50 last day, losing ground at the key 1,600 level and at one point hitting a low of around $1,571, as a strong dollar put a lid on the rally.

On the epidemic front, the global total of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 850,000 as of around 10:30 p.m. Beijing time, with a total of 858,669 cases confirmed and 42,151 deaths, according to real-time data update website world meters.

Among them, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 180,000, which is the most in the world and more than twice as many as in China. Meanwhile, the U.S. has recorded a total of 3,850 deaths, far more than the 2,977 killed in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

New York state, the epicenter, is still getting worse. New York state hospitals admitted more than 10, 000 patients on Monday, adding 1, 412 cases a day, the largest one-day increase since the state’s outbreak began. New York’s governor said the peak could come in the next seven to 30 days.

More than 38,000 people have been diagnosed in New York City, mayor blasio DE blasio said in an interview, but community transmission has already begun, and the number of people infected far exceeds the number diagnosed, with mild cases still not meeting testing standards.

US President Donald trump on Thursday prepared americans for an imminent surge in coronavirus cases, calling COVID 19 a scourge and saying the us was facing “a very, very painful two weeks”.

Deborah berks, coordinator of the White House coronavirus response task force, showed a model for predicting the number of deaths from a novel coronavirus could range from 100,000 to 240,000 in the next two weeks. If not controlled, the number of deaths could reach between 1.5 million and 2.2 million.

“There is no magic bullet,” berks said. There is no magic vaccine or cure. It’s just about behavior: each of our actions translates into something that changes the course of this pandemic over the next 30 days.” Berks expects the death toll to peak in the next two weeks.

This trading day, the market will usher in a wave of data. At 20:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, “small non-agricultural” ADP data is expected to be the first to issue a negative warning. U.S. ADP employment is expected to have fallen by 150,000 in March from a gain of 183,000, according to a media survey.

ADP measures monthly changes in non-agricultural private sector employment, and those private small and medium-sized enterprises are the biggest victims of the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak, globally.

As for gold, HSBC says the market will consolidate in the short term. The bank said the gold market would take a break and consolidate in the short term because of the passage of a fiscal stimulus program in the United States and the lack of new stimulus programs in Europe.

However, Credit Suisse says it is bullish on gold hitting a record high. “We are bullish on gold for the long term, with the key $1446 – $1452 / oz support zone maintained after the gold price returned above its 200-day moving average. We think gold can break through $1,921 an ounce, a new record.”

Bank of nova scotia (Scotiabank) in the latest report said, “the gold market may appear more than 2008 to 2013, a strong bull market, market position more clearly than at that time, macro panic has improved, the risk of stock demand in recovery, the dollar have been limited by the fed unlimited QE, funding pressures eased.”

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index index on the day high fall, barely maintain near the 99 level, continue to trade in this level within a narrow range. On the technical side, the MACD green kinetic energy column expanded slightly, the RSI index held steady around 50, the KDJ random index fell below 50, there is still room for further decline.

On the 4 hour chart, the dollar index in the 100 moving average 99.35 level fluctuation, the trend is clearly caught in the consolidation, attention can stand on this average. In technical terms, the MACD red kinetic energy column slightly contracted, RSI index hovering below 50, KDJ random index fell below 50, there is still room for further decline in the short term.

gold

On the daily chart, gold lost control of the key 50-day moving average of 1590 after the previous day’s plunge, with key support below the 100-day moving average of $1544. In technical terms, MACD red kinetic energy column slightly weakened, RSI index held steady above the 50 level, KDJ random index from the overbought level down, short or continue to consolidate

On the four-hour chart, the gold price fell sharply last day and lost its 200-day moving average of 1600. At one point, it dipped below the 100-day moving average of 1575. In technical terms, MACD green kinetic energy column steady, KDJ random index hovering around the oversold level, short term may be stabilized rebound.

fundamentals Positive factors:

  1. According to media reports and statistics, on April 1, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 850,000, with a total of 858,669 cases confirmed and 42,151 cases killed by lightning. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 180,000, making it the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
  2. US President Donald trump called a novel coronavirus a plague and said the us was facing “a very, very painful two weeks”. Dr. Bill bilks, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said he still expects 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States, with the death toll expected to peak in the next two weeks.
  3. On Tuesday, trump called for the U.S. to spend another $2 trillion on a massive infrastructure package. With us interest rates at zero during the crisis, he wrote, it was “time” to overhaul infrastructure.
  4. U.S. President Donald trump says models of the outbreak show that the peak of the epidemic is not yet in the next two weeks. The next 30 days are challenging times. Mr. Trump noted that one million americans have been tested for the virus. In addition, Mr. Trump said he would send $100 million worth of goods to Italy.

Fundamental negative factors:

1, March 31 U.S. stocks ended the first quarter with a decline across the board. The dow posted its biggest quarterly decline since 1987, while the s&p 500 posted its biggest quarterly decline since the financial crisis. Both the s&p 500 and the dow ended the first quarter more than 20% lower than at the end of 2019, one of the fastest bull-to-bear rallies on record.

2.Russia’s central bank announced on Monday that it would stop buying gold from April 1, without explaining why.

3.All three major U.S. indexes rose in a volatile session on March 30, with the dow up nearly 700 points as large-cap tech and health-care stocks rallied.

4.The U.S. house of representatives on Friday approved the largest aid package in U.S. history, a $2.2 trillion plan to help American individuals and businesses deal with the economic downturn caused by a novel coronavirus outbreak and provide much-needed medical supplies to hospitals.

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