International spot gold traded at $1,657.60 an ounce in early Asian trading on Tuesday. By the spread of risk aversion warming effect, the previous session on the gold price surge once rushed to $1689.21 an ounce highs, and from that point after shocks all the way retracement, lowest intraday hit $1642.69 an ounce, since the day once sank down high exceed $20, for the moment, since low rebound, temporarily to restricted to $1660 mark for the below.
COMEX April gold futures closed up $27.8, or 1.69 percent, at $1,676.6 an ounce.
“The market is now spooked by the new coronavirus outbreak,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. The dow Jones industrial average fell about a thousand points and Treasury yields fell.”
Daniel Briesemann, analyst at Commerzbank, said: “concerns about the new coronavirus are driving up risk aversion among market participants and leading to higher and higher gold prices. The virus is now spreading rapidly in countries such as Italy and South Korea.
“There appears to be short-covering and a fear of missing out on the [gold] rally, which has been well supported by a $1,660 pullback,” MKS PAMP said in a note. Demand is expected to remain strong in the $1,660 – $1,650 area, with top resistance approaching $1,700.”
“Usually after a breakout like this, funds come in long, so there’s a lot of technical buying going on,” said Edward Meir, analyst at ED&F Man Capital Markets. Meir said the near-term upside target for gold was $1,700 an ounce.
“While the dollar is strong, gold’s continued, cold-blooded, orderly rise speaks for itself,” Nicky Shiels, metals strategist at scotiabank, said in an email. “the breakout is reasonable and sustainable.”
In terms of the epidemic situation, the national health and fitness commission announced within the next few days that from 0 to 24:00 on February 24, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps reported 508 new confirmed cases, 71 new deaths (68 in hubei, two in shandong and one in guangdong) and 530 new suspected cases.
On the same day, 2,589 new cases were cured and discharged from hospital, 15,758 close contacts were released from medical observation, and 789 cases of severe illness were reduced.
On the daily chart, the dollar index moved higher and continued to retreat, hitting a high of 99.92 last week. Technically, the MACD red momentum column has further narrowed sharply, while the KDJ random index has fallen steeply, indicating a strengthening of the dollar’s downward momentum and further declines in incoming materials.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index was trading in a tight range at a relatively low level for the moment, with the MACD green momentum column expanding slightly and the KDJ random index slightly tilted down, indicating that the dollar’s short-term downward momentum is still there and incoming stocks will continue to fall.
On the daily chart, gold prices held steady on the recent uptrend, with the MACD red momentum column expanding and the KDJ random index turning lower, indicating mixed momentum for gold, which may then trade in a tight range at highs.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, the gold price fell after surging higher, with MACD green kinetic energy column looming. The KDJ random index continued to decline, indicating that the short-term downward kinetic energy of gold was restarted, and the incoming materials continued to carry out retracting.
Fundamentals favorable factors:
1, on Tuesday (February 25) as of February 24, 24, according to the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps, the existing 47672 cases of confirmed cases of 9126 patients with severe cases (), the cumulative cured cases, 27323 cases of hospital, the cumulative death cases, 2663 cases, has reported 77658 cases of confirmed cases, the existing 2824 cases suspected cases. A total of 641,742 close contacts were traced, including 87,902 close contacts under medical observation.
2.The us centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) confirmed on Thursday that 53 new cases of coronary pneumonia have been confirmed in the us, including 18 evacuees from the Japanese cruise ship “diamond princess”.
3.Slovakia’s prime minister, Peter Pellegrini, has been admitted to hospital with a high fever, sparking speculation and concern that led to a sharp rise in risk aversion.
4.The world health organization (WHO) said on February 24 that the outbreak of the coronavirus could still be defeated and that it was too early to declare the virus’s uncontrolled global spread.
5.The department of central epidemic prevention of the republic of Korea (kcna) announced Tuesday that as of 9 am local time, 60 new cases of coronary pneumonia had been confirmed in South Korea, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 893.
Fundamental negative factors:
- On February 25, he zhimin, deputy director of the state intellectual property office, said that radesivir has not been approved for listing in any country in the world, and radesivir is still in the clinical stage. There have been reports in the United States of initial results in the treatment of new coronary pneumonia. We have officially started clinical trials of the drug in a number of hospitals in wuhan, and announced the results of clinical trials on April 27.
2.New claims for state unemployment benefits rose 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 210,000 for the week ended Feb. 15, the labor department said on Feb. 20, in line with expectations. That suggests continued strength in the labor market could help support the economy amid the risk of coronavirus and weak business investment.
3. The Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index jumped to 36.7 in February from 17.0 in January, the highest level since February 2017, the fed said on February 20. Separately, the Philadelphia fed’s index of new manufacturing orders in February was at its highest level since May 2018.
4.A February 19 report that U.S. housing starts fell less than expected in January and construction permits rose to a near 13-year high suggests the housing market’s continued strength could help keep the longest economic expansion in history on track. The Commerce Department said it expected 1.425 million new homes to start last month at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.667 million. Permits for construction surged 9.2 per cent in January to an annual rate of 1.551, 000 units, the highest since March 2007, with both single-family and multifamily building permits up.