Asian market on Friday (January 17), spot gold continued to fluctuate around the 1550 pass, the trend is clearly trapped in a narrow range of movement, the day to watch a series of economic data performance.
U.S. retail sales data last week were in line with expectations, suggesting a healthy economy and equity markets rose on optimism over a first-phase trade deal between the United States and China, hitting safe-haven gold, which fell from above 1550 to around $1547 before closing around $1552.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2019 was 6.1 percent year-on-year, slowing 0.5 percentage points from 2018 and still within the expected target of 6-6.5 percent, the lowest since the country adopted the system of national account accounting (SNA) in 1992, according to the latest data released on Friday. The year-on-year growth in the first quarter was 6.4%, 6.2% in the second quarter, 6.0% in the third quarter and 6.0% in the fourth quarter.
Ning jizhe, head of the national bureau of statistics, said that overall, the national economy continued to maintain a stable and progressive development trend in 2019. At the same time, we should also note that the growth of the world economy and trade is slowing down, sources of turbulence and risks are on the rise, domestic structural and institutional cyclical problems are intertwined, and downward pressure on the economy remains strong.
“Risk aversion will support gold in the short term,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA. “gold could rise to $1,580 in the coming weeks, but it should stay at $1,540 for now.”
Peter Grosskopf of Sprott Inc said the bull market in gold is by no means over. “Things are still good and retail investors are watching.”
On the daily chart, the dollar index is stuck in a very narrow range, trading around 97.30, with the main moving averages above showing a bearish alignment. According to the technical indicators, the MACD red kinetic energy column turns smoothly, the RSI index remains stable around 50, and the KDJ index approaches the overbought level.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index rose sharply after hitting a low of 97.08 the previous day, pushing through the key 200-day moving average and now awaiting further guidance. From the technical indicators, MACD green kinetic energy column gradually weakened and nearly disappeared, RSI index hovered around 50, and the KD index rose above the 50 levels, indicating that the short-term or continue to rebound.
On the daily chart, gold continued its volatile pattern of previous days, trading around $1,550, still above the main moving average. In terms of technical indicators, the MACD green momentum column showed initial signs, the RSI index hovered above 50, and the KDJ fell below the 50 levels, indicating stronger short momentum.
As shown in the 4-hour chart, gold rebounded after hitting a low of $1535, and is now in a process of volatile consolidation, mainly hovering around 1550, with temporary pressure from the upper 50 ema. Technically, the MACD red kinetic energy column is very weak, the RSI index hovers around the 50 levels, and the KDJ is moving down towards the 50 levels.
Fundamentals favorable factors:
- The US Senate on Thursday formally accepted articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, meaning the senate’s impeachment trial has officially begun. However, the 16th event is just one of many procedural activities ahead of the trial, which is expected to begin on the 21st local time.
2.nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US house of representatives, has signed the latest articles of impeachment against Donald Trump. Articles of impeachment are expected to be “escorted” to the Senate by seven house impeachment managers.
3.U.S. producer prices, released on Wednesday, rose to an annual rate of 1.3 percent in December, up from 1.1 percent but below expectations.
4. The monthly consumer price index rose 0.2% in December, the labor department said on Tuesday, Jan. 14. The core CPI rose 0.1 percent, compared with expectations and expectations of a 0.2 percent increase.
Fundamental negative factors:
1.Us retail sales rose 0.3 percent in December on expectations of a 0.3 percent raise and a 0.2 percent gain, according to data released on Thursday, January 16, boosting sentiment. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits fell to 204,000 last week from an expected 216,000.
2. On January 15, eastern time, Liu he, a member of the political bureau of the CPC central committee, vice-premier of the state council and Chinese leader of the china-us comprehensive economic dialogue, and US President Donald Trump officially signed the first stage of china-us economic and trade agreement.
3. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI), released on Tuesday, rose at a 2.3% annual rate for December, the highest since October 2018, up 2.1% from the previous reading but below expectations of 2.4%. Us consumer prices rose slightly in December and underlying monthly inflation pressures eased, agency comments said.
4. The US Treasury Department on Monday (January 13) released its semi-annual report on exchange rate policy, lifting its designation of China as a “currency manipulator”. The report also said continued dollar strength was “worrisome” on the basis that the IMF judged the dollar to be “overvalued” on a basis of real efficiency.