Gold investment: The Fed keeps talking! A full recovery in sight? Dollar index to “hundred feet”! Can gold rise another $200?

On Friday, spot gold remained under pressure, trading at around $1,868 an ounce. Meanwhile, spot silver fell below $23 an ounce, down 0.87% on the day. The DOLLAR index was little changed at around 94.36. Spot gold closed at $1,867.26 an ounce, up $4.21, or 0.23 percent, after touching a low of $1,848.22 an ounce and a high of $1,877.00. The dollar index.DXY closed flat at 94.37, having hit an intraday high of 94.61 and a low of 94.20.

The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose 4,000 to 870,000 in the week ended September 19, labor Department data showed On Friday, beating consensus expectations and reflecting the labor market recovery remains difficult. The Labor Department also revised up initial jobless claims by 6,000 to 866,000 in the week ended September 12. Meanwhile, nationwide, jobless claims fell by 167,000 to 12.58 million as of Sept. 12. The insured unemployment rate, which reflects the proportion of insured people receiving unemployment benefits, was 8.6%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous week.

While the number of new claims for unemployment benefits in the United States has fallen sharply from a peak of nearly 7 million in March, it has remained stuck at around 800,000 in recent weeks, four times the level before the coVID-19 outbreak, analysts said, indicating that companies are still cutting jobs at a higher rate and that the U.S. job market is struggling to recover.

House Democrats are preparing a new, smaller rescue package that is expected to cost about $2.4 trillion, a person familiar with the matter said Thursday. The offer is a “slimmer” offer than the previous $3tn bid to move negotiations forward with the White House.

Besides beefing up unemployment insurance, direct cash payments to Americans and loans to small businesses under the Pay Protection Program, the new package will include assistance to the airline industry to avert mass job losses, people familiar with the matter said. Mass lay-offs in the airline industry are likely to begin on October 1st, as programmes in the previous round of federal support legislation and assistance to small businesses expire.

A senior House Democratic official familiar with the matter said on Thursday that an agreement on another stopgap spending bill to prevent a government shutdown could open the door to resuming negotiations on a stimulus bill that has been stalled since early August. The stopgap spending bill has been approved by the House of Representatives and is expected to receive final senate approval next week.

The debate over the aid proposal comes amid growing concerns about the potential of the US economic recovery. In addition to the stimulus bill, the Fed’s policy space and possible policy changes are also the focus of market attention, especially in recent days a number of Fed speeches, including overnight remarks by Colin Powell and three fed vice chairmen.

Fed Chairman Colin Powell said on Thursday the central bank is pursuing an average inflation rate of 2 percent and setting an average inflation rate of 2 percent would give it more room to cut interest rates. He also suggested that aid to small businesses and support for the unemployed should be a priority if Congress is to divert funds to support the Fed’s emergency lending program.

Fed Chief Bullard expressed optimism that a full recovery is “within reach.” He predicted that the US economy could be close to a full recovery by the end of 2020. He sees no need for substantial new fiscal stimulus, and many at the Fed overestimate the downside risks.

The crisis is particularly painful for communities of color, and a full economic recovery will require investments in health, education, infrastructure and training, New York Fed President William Williams said. Structural inequalities depress growth, he says, but there is no single panacea for the problems exposed by the pandemic.

Fundamental positive factors

  1. According to world real-time statistics from Worldometers, as of 7:42 PM On September 25, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 32.39 million, reaching 32,392,336, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 987,010, with over 987,000 cases. The United States has the highest cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world, with 7.18 million cases to 7,182,374. The cumulative number of deaths has exceeded 207,000, reaching 207,460.
  2. According to Taiwan’s Freedom Times, Taiwan’s defense ministry released information that PLA aircraft re-entered the southwest Taiwan airspace on September 24. It was also the seventh time in eight days that PLA aircraft had flown in airspace around Taiwan. According to the report, PLA aircraft “harass” Taiwan’s outer airspace has been “normalized”, and the Taiwan military, in accordance with the usual practice, sent air patrols and scrambled forces to respond, broadcast and chase surveillance through various types of anti-aircraft missiles. On September 17, the Taiwan Defense Ministry set up a “real-time military dynamic” zone on its official website to announce the latest developments in the air and sea around Taiwan. According to the zone’s records, as of April 24, there were only 20 records of PLA aircraft operating in the airspace around Taiwan.
  3. Five Republican US senators have urged Netflix to reconsider plans to turn a Chinese science fiction trilogy into a TV series because they say the author defends the Chinese government’s treatment of Uighur Muslims. In a letter to Netflix, the senators pointed to comments Liu cixin made to The New Yorker magazine in 2019 about China’s crackdown on Uighurs and other Muslims in the Xinjiang region. “If there is any role for the government, it is to help them develop their economy and help them out of poverty,” liu said. If you let the country relax a little bit, the consequences will be terrible.”

3.China has built nearly 400 “detention camps” in the Xinjiang region, according to an Australian think tank, with at least 61 of them continuing to be built over the past two years, although Chinese authorities say their “re-education” system is winding down. New satellite images obtained by The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) show a network of camps, 14 of which are still under construction, in remote areas of western China used to imprison Uighurs and other Muslim minorities. Since 2017, ASPI has identified a total of 380 camps in the region, ranging from minimum-security re-education camps to fortified prisons. That’s more than 100 more than previous surveys found, and researchers believe they have now identified most of the camps in the area.

Fundamentals negative factors

  1. Tesla filed a lawsuit to prevent the Trump administration from imposing tariffs on parts imported from China by the electric car maker. Tesla on Monday filed a lawsuit with the U.S. International Trade Court in New York, asking the court to order that the duties be declared illegal and that the taxes already paid be refunded along with interest.
  2. CDC Director Redfield said at a Senate Health Committee hearing Wednesday that he was not suggesting last week that there would be enough novel Coronavirus vaccine available for all Americans by the second half of next year. Redfield said there should be about 700 million doses by April, echoing the timeline given last week by Paul Mango, deputy chief of staff at the Department of Health and Human Services.
  3. Us pork exports to China have surged past pre-trade levels thanks to higher shipments from Brazil’s JBS SA and US Smith Smith Foods owner WH Group, ACCORDING to Panjiva, s&p’s global markets research Group on Tuesday. Panjiva said on Tuesday that JBS’s exports of US pork to China this year as of August 31 were likely to be up 370 per cent from the same period in 2017, while wh Group’s exports were up 90.1 per cent.

China and India said On Tuesday they had agreed to stop sending more troops to a Himalayan hotspot near their disputed border and to refrain from any action that could complicate tensions in the region. Wu Qian, a spokesman for China’s defence ministry, said senior military officials from the two countries met on Monday and exchanged views on the border dispute. In a joint news release issued by the Indian government in New Delhi, the two sides agreed to “avoid misunderstanding and miscalculation” and to “refrain from unilaterally changing the situation on the ground”. “The two sides also agreed to hold a seventh round of military commander-level meetings as soon as possible,” the news release said.

Technical analysis:

Spot gold day upward trend, the turning point is located in 1847.75, is close to the first target, and far from the lower support, note the resistance around 1876.5, if the breakthrough looks up to 1894.75.

Spot silver days tend to bullish, the current turn at 22.22, to provide upward support for its first target of 23.69, RSI technical indicators bullish, there is further room for rise.

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