Gold investment: the Middle East under the outbreak and “moths”! “Scary data” for the night! Can gold bulls hold their ground?

International spot gold traded at $1,576.50 an ounce in early Asian trading on Friday. Gold has maintained a volatile upward trend after a choppy session that saw prices rise as high as $1,578.20 an ounce.

Bob Haberkorn, the senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said: “gold prices will continue to rise until the market determines the extent of the virus. Overnight, we got conflicting information about the direction of the outbreak. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, gold was supported by global central bank easing and won’t change direction anytime soon. If the coronavirus is contained, gold prices could fall by as much as $20 to $30.”

Craig Erlam, an analyst at OANDA, said investors had become more confident that we might start to see the light at the far end of the tunnel, but the Numbers then spiked, hitting a pretty big bet.

Charlie Ripley, senior market strategist at Allianz Investment Management, said: “on days like today, investors just have to take it in their stride. The news has been back and forth, but investors are aware that the outbreak will only have an impact in the first quarter, and the uncertainty is likely to abate.”

The previous session brought fresh news from the Middle East. According to CCTV news, the k-1 military base near the northern Iraqi city of kirkuk was hit by rocket fire on the evening of February 13, local time. In addition to Iraqi federal police and counterterrorism personnel, the base also has a U.S. military presence. According to the Iraqi journalists’ association, military aircraft were flying at low altitudes after the attack, despite bad weather conditions. Sources say the weapon may also have been a missile.

As for the epidemic situation, according to the hubei provincial health and fitness commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on February 13, 2020, a total of 4,823 new cases of coronary pneumonia (including 3,095 clinically diagnosed cases) were confirmed in hubei. A total of 51,986 cases (including 15,384 clinically diagnosed cases) have been reported in hubei province as of 2:00am Tuesday. There were 116 new cases of death (including 8 clinically diagnosed cases) and 690 new cases of discharge (including 214 clinically diagnosed cases).

By 24:00 on February 13, 2020, wuhan, huanggang, jingzhou, xianning, jingmen and ezhou had adjusted and cancelled the number of confirmed cases (including clinically diagnosed cases) at 24:00 on February 12, and a total of 51,986 cases (including 15,384 clinically diagnosed cases) of new coronary pneumonia had been reported in hubei province.

At present, 36,719 cases are still being treated in hospitals in hubei province, including 7,593 severe cases and 1,685 critical cases, all of which are receiving isolation treatment in designated medical institutions. There were 6,169 suspected cases, 3,689 were excluded on the same day and 5,352 were isolated. A total of 166,818 people with close contacts were tracked and 77,685 were under medical observation.

The next step is to keep an eye on the progress of the new outbreak of pneumonia, as well as the nightly release of us retail sales data are known as “the scary Numbers”.

On Friday, at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. will release January retail sales data, the last big economic data of the week.

U.S. retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in January after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month, according to media surveys. Core U.S. retail sales are expected to have risen 0.3 percent in January after rising 0.7 percent.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index held its recent upward trend, peaking at 99.17. Technically, the MACD red kinetic energy column has narrowed slightly, while the KDJ random index is slightly under pressure, indicating a slight slowdown in the dollar’s upward momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index held steady and rose, with the MACD red kinetic energy column unchanged, and the KDJ random index slightly tilted down, indicating that the short-term upward momentum of the dollar remained but was suspended.

gold

On the daily chart, gold continued to rise moderately for the time being, with the MACD green momentum column narrowing slightly, and the KDJ random index significantly higher, indicating stronger upward momentum for gold and continued upward momentum for incoming materials.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, the gold price maintained a moderate upward trend, with the MACD red kinetic energy column unchanged, and the KDJ random index moderately flattened, indicating that the gold short-term may be an upward correction.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. A total of 4,823 new cases (including 3,095 clinically diagnosed cases) of coronary pneumonia were confirmed in hubei province between 0:00 and 24:00 on February 13, 2020, according to the hubei provincial health and fitness commission. A total of 51,986 cases (including 15,384 clinically diagnosed cases) have been reported in hubei province as of 2:00 am Tuesday. There were 116 new cases of death (including 8 clinically diagnosed cases) and 690 new cases of discharge (including 214 clinically diagnosed cases)

2. According to CCTV news, the k-1 military base near the northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk was hit by rocket fire on the evening of February 13, local time. In addition to Iraqi federal police and counterterrorism personnel, the base also has a U.S. military presence. According to the Iraqi journalists’ association, military aircraft were flying at low altitudes after the attack, despite bad weather conditions. Sources say the weapon may also have been a missile.

3. On February 10, the director-general of the world health organization (who) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that there was a risk of a new outbreak of coronary pneumonia spreading widely outside China, calling on all countries to seize the opportunity to stop the spread of human to human.

4. Philadelphia fed President Richard Harker said on Monday that the fed was monitoring the impact of the outbreak, but added there was not much it could do.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. The latest data from the U.S. labor department showed on Thursday that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with expectations of 2.4 percent, up from 2.3 percent. U.S. core consumer prices rose 2.3 percent in January from a year earlier, compared with expectations of 2.2 percent. Some commentators pointed out that the CPI data showed that basic consumer prices rose as households spent more on rent and clothing, which supported the fed’s view that inflation would gradually rise to the 2 percent target.

2.Zhong nanshan, head of the high-level expert group of China’s national health and fitness commission, said in his latest assessment of the outbreak of the new coronavirus on Tuesday that it is expected to peak in February and possibly end in April.

3. On February 11, the world health organization (WHO) said a vaccine could be ready within 18 months.

4. Fed chief Colin Powell said the fed was “closely monitoring” the coronavirus and its impact on China, as well as its possible impact on global economic growth. Despite the threat of a virus, he said the fed’s policy was well positioned after a series of interest rate cuts in 2019.

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