Gold investment: the number of newly diagnosed cases in Hubei surged over 10,000 in a day, and gold once accelerated to go higher! Under the outbreak, beware of market sentiment change again

International spot gold traded at $1570.00 an ounce in early Asian trading on Thursday. Gold has been volatile in recent times, falling to a low of $1,561.76 an ounce in the previous session but bouncing back from there, accelerating through the $1,570 barrier to a high of $1,572.52.

“With a lot of global risk brewing behind the supply chain and demand shrinking, I still think it’s too early to downgrade the risk of Novo pneumonia and gold will continue to be bought on the dips,” Stephen Innes, chief market strategist at AxiCorp, said in a note.

George milling-Stanley, the chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said in a telephone interview with Kitco News that gold has been building a solid foundation after breaking out of its six-year range in 2019. He added that the market was now looking for the next catalyst.

Milling-Stanley expects gold to continue to trade in the $1,400 – $1,600 / ounce range and is bullish on gold’s longer-term prospects, which are expected to be limited to the $1,450 – $1,700 / ounce range.

A total of 14,840 new cases of coronary pneumonia (including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases) were confirmed in hubei on Thursday (February 13), and 242 new cases died in the province. Why did the number of newly diagnosed cases surge so much in a single day? For the first time, hubei province included the number of clinically diagnosed cases in the new data.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index held its recent upward trend, with the MACD red momentum column narrowing slightly and the KDJ random index slightly under pressure, indicating a respite in the dollar’s upward momentum.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index was trading slightly below the 99.06 high, the MACD green energy column was unchanged, and the KDJ random index was moderately higher, indicating that the dollar was likely to trade in a high and narrow range.

gold

On the daily chart, gold traded in a tight range, with the MACD green momentum column unchanged and the KDJ random index moderately flat, indicating that gold may continue to be stuck in a period of consolidation.

On the 4-hour chart, gold rebounded slightly, with the MACD green momentum unchanged and the KDJ random index moving higher, indicating a small near-term rally is likely.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. According to the newly released epidemic data of new coronary pneumonia in hubei province on Thursday (February 13), there were 14,840 new cases (including 13,332 clinically diagnosed cases) of new coronary pneumonia and 242 new cases of death in the province. At present, 33,693 cases are still being treated in hospital, including 5,647 severe cases and 1,437 critical cases, all of which are receiving isolation treatment in designated medical institutions. There were 9,028 suspected cases, 3,317 were excluded on the same day and 6,126 were isolated. A total of 158,377 close contacts were tracked and 77,308 were under medical observation.

2.On February 10, the director-general of the world health organization (who) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that there was a risk of a new outbreak of coronary pneumonia spreading widely outside China, calling on all countries to seize the opportunity to stop the spread of human to human.

3.Philadelphia fed President Richard harker said on Monday that the fed was monitoring the impact of the outbreak, but added that not much could be done.

4. With more deaths from new coronary pneumonia than from the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, the world health organization said the number of cases outside China was likely to be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. According to the statistics of the national health and fitness commission, from 0 to 24:00 on February 11, 377 new cases were confirmed in all regions except hubei, showing a declining trend for the 8th consecutive day. In the past, there were 890 cases (3 days), 731 cases (4 days), 707 cases (5 days), 696 cases (6 days), 558 cases (7 days), 509 cases (8 days), 444 cases (9 days) and 381 cases (10 days).

2.Zhong nanshan, head of the high-level expert group of China’s national health and fitness commission, said in his latest assessment of the outbreak of the new coronavirus on Tuesday that it is expected to peak in February and possibly end in April.

3. On 11 February, the world health organization (WHO) announced that the new coronavirus had been officially named “covid-19”. Meanwhile, the world health organization says a vaccine could be ready within 18 months.

4. Fed chief Colin Powell said the fed was “closely monitoring” the coronavirus and its impact on China, as well as its possible impact on global economic growth. Despite the threat of a virus, he said the fed’s policy was well positioned after a series of interest rate cuts in 2019.

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