Spot gold continued to rally in the Asian session on Tuesday, hitting a high near $1,585 on the day, up more than $30 from its low on the day, after the federal reserve’s renewed outsize stimulus boosted investor sentiment.
Gold exploded last day, briefly trading above the 1560 mark, up more than $50 on the day, and more importantly, closing above the key 200-day moving average.
Now the COVID 19 epidemic is spreading around the world, showing a worsening trend in Europe and the us, with more than 10,000 new cases confirmed in the us in 24 hours and the number of deaths in a single day exceeding triple digits for the first time.
According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of 11:00 am Beijing time on April 24, the global total of covid-19 cases was more than 380,000, and more than 46,000 in the United States.
The United States now has the third-highest number of confirmed cases in the world, after China and Italy. So far, none of the 50 states or Washington, d.c. New York state alone has more than 20,000 confirmed cases, the most in the country.
On March 23, Thomas Bossert, a former assistant to the President of the United States for homeland security and counterterrorism, warned that the United States could soon have the highest number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world. He says now that the number of confirmed cases has shown that the United States could soon become the world’s country with the most novel coronavirus cases.
Amid a worsening outbreak in the United States, President Donald Trump said on Monday that he would not allow a new outbreak to cause long-term damage to the U.S. economy and that he would consider how to move forward after a 15-day shutdown ends next week.
“America will be open for business again soon,” Mr. Trump said at a news conference at the White House. And added, “we’re not going to let this become a long-term financial problem.”
Mr. Trump has been preoccupied with trumpeting the “unprecedented achievements of the us economy”. Instead, a novel coronavirus struck and tore into pieces the hand trump thought was in the bag.
But Mr. Trump is now using the new pandemic as his new political leverage, calling himself a “wartime President” and calling for national unity against an “invisible enemy”.
On March 18, Trump called himself a “wartime President” for the first time after announcing plans to launch the defense production act. On March 22, Mr. Trump again claimed to be a “wartime President”, saying: “we’re at war, really, we’re at war, we’re fighting an invisible enemy.”
And the “war President” strategy seems to be paying off. According to a poll, this week by Reuters, the economist and ABC News, public satisfaction with Mr. Trump’s handling of the crisis is also much higher than before. In a Reuters poll, for example, this rose from 38% in the first week of March to 48% this week.
Some analysts point out that trump’s sudden “war presidency” card, while riskier than his original “economy” card, may also be a better card than the Democrats’ current lack of a united front.
As for gold, Goldman Sachs recommends buying gold futures for December 2020 delivery, arguing that the fed’s “unlimited” quantitative easing program has reversed the financial squeeze and will offset the negative impact of falling demand in emerging markets.
“We may be at an inflection point, as we were in November 2008, when ‘panic’ driven buying will begin to outweigh liquidity-driven selling pressure,” Goldman Sachs analysts Jeffrey Currie and Mikhail Sprogis said in a March 23 report.
Goldman Sachs says the turning point in 2008 was the $600bn quantitative easing programme announced in November that year, after which gold began to climb despite further weakness in equities and commodities.
As a result, the near-term and long-term outlook for gold looks “much more constructive”, say analysts at Goldman Sachs. They also reiterated their expectation that gold will reach $1,800 in 12 months.
On the daily chart, the dollar index continued to fall from its highs, losing the key 102-point level on the day and hitting a low near 101.65, down nearly 100 points on the day but still above its main moving average. On the technical side, the MACD red kinetic energy column began to weaken, the RSI index from the overbought level down, the KDJ random index is still in the overbought level area, suggesting that the price may fall slightly.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index continues to consolidate at high levels and is currently winding around the key 20-point moving average. In technical terms, the MACD green kinetic energy column continues to expand, RSI index hovering around the 50 levels, KDJ random index fell below the 50 levels, short or down.
On the daily chart, gold bulls continue to break out, the previous day closed above the key 200 daily average, within days to climb further to the vicinity of $1,580, focus on whether the 50 daily average 1583 above. From the technical perspective, the MACD green kinetic energy column gradually contracts, the RSI index rises to break the 50 levels, and the KDJ random index rebounds from the oversold level, focusing on the possibility of further higher.
On the 4-hour chart, gold has been on a tear after testing the 1450 floor and is continuing to rally above its key 50-point moving average, with the focus now on whether it can move above its 100-point moving average of $1585. In technical terms, the MACD red kinetic energy column continued to expand, KDJ random index hit the overbought level, focus on the possibility of consolidation.
fundamentals Positive factors :
- As of 6:16 p.m. Et on March 23, there had been at least 43,214 confirmed cases of COVID 19 in the United States, including 533 deaths, according to the Johns Hopkins real-time surveillance system. Us states reported more than 100 new deaths on March 23, the first time since the outbreak began that the number of deaths in the us has risen to triple digits in a single day.
- On Monday, the federal reserve said it would roll out a series of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently in a novel coronavirus crisis. One was a pledge to continue its asset-purchase program.
- The third round of emergency economic aid proposed by republicans failed to pass the Senate on March 23.
- The number of confirmed cases of a novel coronavirus in the United States stood at 33,073 as of 8:43 p.m. Edt, with 416 deaths and 178 cures, making it the third most confirmed country in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University. Meanwhile, a total of 59,000 has been diagnosed in Italy.
Fundamental negative factors:
- Holdings of SPDR Gold, the world’s largest listed Gold exchange-traded fund, fell 1.5% to 908.19 tonnes on Friday.
- February, March 23. Treasury Secretary Steven mnuchin recently said he was close to deal on a stimulus bill.
- The European central bank’s announcement of a €750 billion ($817 billion) asset-purchase program to combat the outbreak of the coronavirus spurred risk sentiment.
- According to a Treasury memo obtained by the Washington Post, the Treasury’s covid-19 stimulus plan is aimed at $1 trillion, including $2,000 in checks for Americans. The plan could also include $300 billion to help small businesses avoid mass layoffs.