Gold investment: Trump’s last stand! Beware of post-election “black swan” events! Big gold price volatility brewing!

In Asian trading on Monday, spot gold continued its short-term rally and is now above the 1880 level, while silver extended its gains to 1.5 per cent and once again stood above the $24 level.

With election Day looming in the US on November 3, the mood is clearly cautious and uneasy. National polls still show Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden still ahead of President Donald Trump, but the race is even tighter in the swing states that will determine the winner.

With just two days to go before the US presidential election, president-elect Donald Trump began a two-day campaign rally at a contested polling place on Sunday, hoping to reverse his landslide to defeat Joe Biden.

According to His schedule, Mr Trump will hold 10 rallies on Sunday and Monday in Michigan, Iowa, North Carolina, Georgia, Wisconsin and Florida, the busiest two days of the election calendar. His last rally was in Michigan, where he closed his campaign in 2016.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that while Trump is down 10 percentage points among voters nationwide, the race gets tighter when the battleground is narrowed to 12 states. Biden has a six-point lead in those 12 states, 51 percent to 45 percent, but had a 10-point lead last month.

The 12 swing states are Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

The report notes that Biden’s advantage in swing states is within the margin of error, which is consistent with polls in many swing states. The polls suggest that the race is so close that Mr Trump could win a majority of the electoral votes without winning the national popular vote, as he did in 2016.

In particular, Mr Trump told people close to him that he intended to declare victory early on election night if the early results went his way, even though uncounted votes could cost Mr Trump a second term, axios reported on November 2. Mr Trump’s team is also preparing to outlaw postal votes counted after November 3. As a result, supporters of Mr Trump’s “fraud theory” are bound to conclude that the Democrats have “stolen the prize” and that right-wing radicals are more likely to resort to violence.

Hong Kong media analysis, points out that on the eve of the election in the United States within the atmosphere outside the chi zhang, restless society toward a tipping point, more state municipal government is to prepare for the selected after the outbreak of violence, the election results during childbirth, civil unrest, civil unrest) and even civil war (civil war), became the topic of public opinion is serious discussion with experts, “black swan” events occurring after the election, the possibility cannot be ruled out.

Royal Bank of Canada said gold could benefit from post-election market turmoil, and investors should brace for prolonged election uncertainty.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the DOLLAR index, after three days of gains, is now trading above the 94 level. The daily MACD red momentum column is gradually expanding and the KDJ stochastic is approaching the overbought level, indicating that short-term bullish momentum is strengthening, but the rally may slow.

On the 4-hour chart, the DOLLAR index continued its strong rally attempt and is now above all its moving averages. The MACD red momentum column shifted to steady, with the KDJ random index trading around overbought levels, indicating dollar bullish momentum remains, short term or consolidation.


On daily charts, gold rebounded from an earlier low of $1,858 and is now testing the 100-day average of $1,890. The daily MACD green momentum column remains weak, with the KDJ stochastic holding steady above oversold levels, indicating weak bearish momentum for gold, which is now prone to volatility.

The 4-hour chart shows gold trying to rally after hitting a low of $1,858 and is now wrapped around its 20-period moving average, with multiple moving averages above holding down resistance. MACD red kinetic energy column gradually strengthened, KDJ random index rebound above the 50 level, indicating gold short term or continue to correct the rebound.


On daily charts, silver rebounded for the second day in a row after bottoming out and is now trying to secure the $24 mark. The MACD green momentum column on the daily chart, with the KDJ stochastic holding steady below the 50 level, indicates bearish momentum remains or further volatility in silver.

In the 4-hour chart, silver has rebounded in a V-shaped fashion after hitting a low of $22.58, with an eye on whether it can break above its 50-period average of $24.20. The MACD red momentum column gradually expanded and the KDJ random index rebounded to overbought levels, indicating that silver bullish momentum strengthened, but the rally may slow.

Fundamentals positive factors:

  1. After Thursday’s rally, U.S. stocks tumbled again on Friday, with the Dow down nearly 500 points and the Nasdaq down more than 3 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 157.50 points, or 0.59 percent, at 26501.60. The S&P 500 closed down 40.10 points, or 1.21%, at 3,270.04. The Nasdaq Composite index closed down 274.00 points, or 2.45%, at 10911.59. — Falling U.S. stocks spark risk aversion, supporting gold.
  2. At least 91,248 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 were reported in the United States on Thursday, according to Reuters, the largest single-day increase since the outbreak began. Since the coVID-19 outbreak began, the United States has had more than 8.94 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, ranking first in the world. — Risk aversion triggered by the worsening epidemic is good for gold.
  3. As coVID-19 continues to worsen in Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced a new round of local lockdown for one month next Monday. In addition, France imposed a nationwide city lockdown from Friday until December 1. — Risk aversion triggered by the worsening epidemic is good for gold.

Fundamentals negative factors:

  1. In a letter to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Thursday, House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said she was still waiting for answers from Mr. Mnuchin on some points of disagreement. The White House dismissed Ms. Pelosi, saying she had no intention of backing down. Mr. Mnuchin, responding to Ms. Pelosi’s letter on Thursday, said that Ms. Pelosi had used a “political gimmick” during the negotiations to pursue an all-or-nothing negotiating approach. — The pre-election stimulus package is bearish for gold.
  2. The U.S. Commerce Department released figures for U.S. GROSS domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter, which grew at an annualized rate of 33.1 percent, the best on record. — Better-than-expected U.S. GDP boosts risk sentiment and bears gold.
  3. Global gold demand fell 19 percent year-on-year to 892 tonnes in the third quarter of this year, the World Gold Council said today in its gold demand trends report. That was the lowest quarterly aggregate demand since the third quarter of 2009. — Falling demand for gold is bad for gold prices.

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