international spot gold was trading at $1,559.67 an ounce in early Asian trading on Tuesday. Gold retreated further intraday as sentiment temporarily stabilized and now traded as low as $1,556.45 an ounce, extending losses from the previous session’s high.
Gold surged more than $30 to a high of $1,587.90 a Troy ounce on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, but quickly pared gains to less than $10 as sentiment stabilized. The rapid escalation in the Middle East following the U.S. killing of Iran’s top general on Friday, particularly the U.S. military’s attacks on Hezbollah guerrillas in Iraq and Syria, could push Iraq further toward Iran. On Sunday, Iran announced a commitment to end restrictions on its nuclear program, as Iraqi lawmakers voted to expel U.S. troops. President trump’s latest tweet says Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. Meanwhile, in response to the U.S. military presence in Iraq, Arab sky news recently tweeted that Hezbollah in Iraq says it will turn U.S. air bases into ruins if trump insists U.S. troops stay. The news certainly spooked markets, and gold remained resilient.
Iraq’s engagement with the United States comes at a time when Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads, complicating the Middle East and spreading risk aversion.
A U.S. general informed Iraq’s defense ministry in a letter that u.s.-led coalition would leave the country “as a mistake,” the Pentagon said Monday. Us defense officials insist the troops will remain there.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday he would impose sanctions on Iraq if it demanded US troops leave the country. The United States will not leave Iraq until the airbase is paid for in Baghdad.
The next step is to keep a close eye on events in the Middle East, where any unexpected news could spark another upheaval.
George milling-Stanley, the chief gold strategist at Wall Street global investment advisers, says gold’s rally is sustainable as conflicts in the Middle East unfold. Because we don’t know what will happen next, we live in an era of unprecedented uncertainty that will support gold prices. People had hoped for a quiet start to 2020, but it wasn’t.
Mr. Miller-stanley expects gold prices to fluctuate between 1,550 and 1,650 by 2020. Despite a 3.5 percent rise in the first few days of the year, the market is not showing it is overbought. He also stressed that 2020 would be a year of uncertainty, with the Middle East crisis, the pending us-china trade deal and the UK’s Brexit plan as catalysts for gold.
On the daily chart, the dollar index is trading at a lower level, with MACD green momentum edging higher and KDJ random flat, suggesting the dollar is still expected to consolidate for some time.
In the 4-hour chart, the dollar index came under temporary pressure, with the MACD green momentum column unchanged and the KDJ random index unchanged, indicating that the dollar could remain under pressure in the short term.
On the daily chart, gold prices fell, the MACD red momentum column remained unchanged, and the KDJ random index turned lower, indicating that gold’s rising momentum had paused and continued to fall slightly next.
As can be seen from the 4-hour chart, the gold price has maintained the trend of correction since its high. The MACD green kinetic energy column is either off or on, while the KDJ random index is slightly lower, indicating that the short-term downward kinetic energy of gold is enhanced, and then the incoming materials continue to carry out the correction.
Fundamentals favorable factors:
1. “never threaten Iran,” Iranian President Hassan Rohani tweeted on Monday in response to US President Donald trump’s threat to strike 52 Iranian targets. Trump tweeted that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.
2. In a letter to the Iraqi military on Monday, the US military said it was preparing to withdraw from the country “out of respect for Iraq’s sovereignty”. The reporter saw a copy of the letter and confirmed its authenticity. U.S. defense secretary George esper later denied there was a plan to withdraw. The chairman of the pentagon’s joint chiefs of staff, James Millay, explained that the letter was genuine, but that it should not have been sent at this time. Milley called it a mistake by the head of U.S. central command, general Mackenzie.
3. France’s foreign minister said on Monday that there was a real risk of war in the Middle East if tensions did not ease, but that there was still room for a diplomatic solution to the Iran crisis.
Vice President Mike Pence will deliver a speech on U.S. policy toward Iran on Monday, White House officials said Monday. President Trump will give a closed-door briefing on Iran to the full Senate on Wednesday, Senate aides say. senate republican leader mitch McConnell said defense secretary David esper, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff David Milley and secretary of state Mike Pompeo would brief the senate on Iran.
US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US would strike back if Iran did anything more. Sanctions will be imposed on Iraq if it asks for American troops to withdraw, and intelligence on the killing of Iranian officials will be considered.
Fundamental negative factors:
European Union foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Friday to discuss how to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, two EU diplomats said on Monday.
On Friday, U.S. construction spending rose 0.6 percent in November from a month earlier, above a minus 0.8 percent and expectations of 0.3 percent. That suggests the housing market remains healthy.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 222,000 in the week ended December 28, the labor department said on Thursday, below expectations of 225,000. The four-week moving average of new claims rose 4,750 to 233,250, the highest level since January 2018. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell slightly, a positive sign for the U.S. labor market.
The conference board’s consumer confidence index for December, released on Tuesday, was 126.5, up from 125.5 and below expectations of 128.2, still high but not positive for the dollar or U.S. stocks.
An index of pending U.S. home sales, released on Monday, rose 1.2 percent in November, beating expectations for a 1.1 percent gain. The previous figure was revised to 1.3 percent from a 1.7 percent decline.
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 222,000 in the week ended Dec. 21, down from forecasts of 224,000 and 234,000, according to a report released Dec. 26. The latest week’s decline largely offset an early increase in hiring in the previous two weeks, suggesting the U.S. job market remains strong, the commentary said.
Spot gold was trading at $1,559.67 an ounce at 10.45 am. Beijing time.