On Friday (March 27), spot gold overall maintained a high consolidation pattern, currently trading in a narrow range around $1,625, as the market continues to focus on the development of the global outbreak and related stimulus measures in various countries.
Gold ended slightly higher last day, briefly falling below the $1,600 mark before closing back above $1,620, up more than $10 on the day.
In terms of the outbreak, the number of new confirmed cases in the United States surged by 17,000. According to the global real-time outbreak data released by Johns Hopkins university in the United States, as of 6:00 PM Beijing time on July 27, the cumulative number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the United States reached 82404, more than China and Italy.
Meanwhile, the epidemic continues to rise in Europe, with Italy, Spain, Germany and France among the worst affected countries. The death toll in Spain jumped to the second-highest in the world, with Italy overtaking China in deaths.
The outbreak has also hit the job market hard. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits surged to 3.283 million last week as a result of the outbreak, labor department data showed Thursday. And more than four times the previous record of 695,000 set in 1982. Initial jobless claims data have been published since 1967.
Still, U.S. stocks surged as investors bet on more stimulus, with the focus still on an unprecedented $2 trillion stimulus package.
On March 26, the U.S. stock index of the three major stocks rose in the morning volatility, the end of the day is violent pull-up, the dow finally up more than 1300 points, three days up nearly 4,000 points, up 21.3%, the best since October 1931 three consecutive days of gains. By the close, the dow was up 1351.62 points, or 6.38%, at 22552.17. The NASDAQ gained 413.24 points, or 5.60%, to 7,797.54. The s&p 500 rose 154.51 points, or 6.24%, to 2630.07, back above 2600.
The dow is up 21 percent from Monday’s low and, by one widely used definition, has returned to bull market territory. The dow posted its biggest three-day percentage gain since 1931 on Thursday.
“It’s encouraging to see people continue to buy after the big rally the previous day because we haven’t seen that in a month,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab. It’s not a guarantee that the bottom has been reached, but it’s a sign that a bottoming process is beginning.”
‘the reality is that the bottom will come when the number of infections starts to peak,’ said Jonathan Golub, chief U.S. market strategist at Credit Suisse. Before that, volatility was common.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group, said that when the s&p 500 falls between 2,300 and 2,400, there will be a lot of people in the room because it’s a December 2018 low. But he thinks the market is already pricing in very negative factors for the short term but is still waiting on the downside for the medium to long term. For example, in the next two or three weeks, there will be a surge in patient Numbers — a factor that the market may not take into account in the current pricing.
Boockvar said the virus’s impact will continue to drive the stock market: come back in a month or two, he said, and he doesn’t believe U.S. stocks have hit bottom and are only at a cyclical bottom.
As for gold, Ilya Spivak, currency strategist at DailyFx in New York, said there won’t be much good news until the blockade ends around the world, and the fed’s various stimulus programs are positive for many assets, including gold. “Gold is going to be in a consolidation mode now, and a lot of assets are going to be.”
Adrian Day, chief executive of Adrian Day Asset Management, said gold was not only supported by easy monetary policy, but also by the prospect of interest rates remaining low for an extended period even if the economy recovers.
It is worth noting that since 12:00 noon Singapore time on the 24th, the gold quotation of major Banks around the world has been abnormal, and the gold quotation point difference of some brokerage platforms has even surged to more than 8000 points (about 80 us dollars), and some gold quotation has been temporarily suspended. In addition, silver quotation point difference also appeared a few hundred outliers.
Keith Weiner, Ph.D. in economics and chairman of the us gold standard and chief executive of Monetary Metals, has written about the possible causes of such anomalies, pointing out that a closer look at the logic suggests that the differences often have little to do with the supply and demand of the physical gold market and that there has never been a problem with the supply of physical gold.
Weiner pointed out that this imbalance is more likely due to the absence of market makers, resulting in too few participants in the market and wide bid-ask spreads. Market makers are reluctant to participate mainly because the cost of borrowing is so high that most of the arbitrage space is piled up.
On the daily chart, the dollar index continued to come under pressure after plunging more than 150 points last day, with the U.S. index trading around 99.10, close to the series of dense average support below. On the technical side, the MACD red kinetic energy column continues to weaken, the RSI index remains stable around 50, and the KDJ random index approaches 50 from the overbought level. There is still room for further decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index is still in the beginning of the 103 level of the shock downtrend, has now broken through the 50 moving average, is testing the key 100 moving average and 200 moving average intersection 98.87 level, focus on whether to stand this moving average. In technical terms, the MACD green kinetic energy column is stable, RSI index has just touched the oversold level, KDJ random index is still in the oversold level, alert to the possibility of correction rebound.
On the daily chart, gold is still in the high consolidation momentum, currently hovering around $1625, still above the main moving average. From the technical perspective, the MACD red kinetic energy column gradually expanded, the RSI index held steady above the 50 level, and the KDJ random index approached the overbought level. There was still upside space.
On the 4-hour chart, the recent gold rally has slowed significantly and started to consolidate, trading above the 200th and 100th moving averages of $1598 and $1585. In technical terms, the MACD green kinetic energy column is exceptionally weak, the KDJ random index held steady above the 50 levels, short or further shock.
fundamentals Positive factors:
- According to real-time statistics from Johns Hopkins University, the number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the United States has surpassed that of Italy and China, with a total of 82,404 confirmed cases in the United States. The United States has overtaken China and Italy to become the world’s top country in the number of confirmed cases. Johns Hopkins university’s real-time surveillance system shows more than 17,000 new cases and more than 250 more deaths in the United States in the past 24 hours or so.
- The labor department reported on Thursday that initial claims for state unemployment benefits surged to 3.28 million from 282,000 the previous week. That beat the peak of 665,000 hits during the Great Recession and the all-time high of 695,000 set in October 1982.
- Federal reserve chairman Colin Powell said the U.S. economy was “probably in recession,” but progress in containing the spread of the coronavirus would determine when the economy fully recovered. His comments were a rare admission by a Fed chairman that the economy may be shrinking even before the data confirm it.
- The epidemic is still heating up in Europe, with Italy, Spain, Germany, and France being the most serious countries. The death toll in Spain jumped to the second-highest in the world, with Italy overtaking China in deaths.
Fundamental negative factors:
- The dow closed up 1,351.62 points, or 6.4%, at 22,552.17, ending its biggest three-day rally since 1931. Over the past three days, the dow has risen more than 21.3%, its best three-day winning streak since October 1931, as a $2 trillion bailout helped pull it out of a technical bear market.
- The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted unanimously to pass a $2 trillion bill aimed at helping the unemployed and industries hit by an outbreak of novel coronavirus.
- The federal reserve said on Monday it would buy as many bonds as possible to stabilize financial markets and guarantee direct loans to companies, fueling a further recovery in risk sentiment.
- New York’s governor said on Wednesday that there were early signs that restrictions were slowing the spread of the coronavirus in his state.