Gold investment: when will the epidemic turn? Expert latest response! Gold took a breather after its plunge

International spot gold traded around $1,555.00 an ounce in early Asian trading on Wednesday. While risk aversion continued to rise as the new coronavirus pneumonia epidemic spread, gold fell further in volatile trading, hitting as low as $1548.94 an ounce. For now in the session, gold has staged a modest rally from its lows.

Gold prices took a beating overnight as China’s efforts to mitigate the economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak pushed some investors out of safe-haven assets and back into riskier assets.

“The dramatic moves in global equity markets, particularly in the United States, clearly indicate that there is less concern that the coronavirus outbreak is undermining GDP growth, and we have less demand for safe-haven assets,” said David Meger, head of metals trading for High Ridge Futures.

George Gero, managing director of RBC Wealth Management, said in a note that gold should remain in the $1,550 to $1,600 range until more political and economic news emerges.

Outbreak, the latest data according to the national guard is built appoint, on February 4, 0-24, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps report new confirmed cases, 3887 cases (3156 cases), hubei province, the new severe cases 431 cases (377 cases), hubei province, the new death cases, 65 cases (65 cases), hubei province, the new hospital cured cases 262 cases (125 cases), hubei province, the new suspected cases 3971 cases (1957 cases) of hubei province.

24 to February 4th, national health committee received 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps has reported 24324 cases of confirmed cases (hainan subtract 1 case), the existing 3219 cases of severe cases, death cases of 490 cases, cure the hospital cases 892 cases (hainan, subtract 1 case), hubei province, the existing 23260 cases suspected cases.

So far, a total of 252,154 close contacts have been traced, and 18,457 people have been released from medical observation on the same day. Currently, 185,555 people are under medical observation.

A total of 39 cases have been reported from Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan: 18 from the Hong Kong special administrative region (1 death), 10 from the Macao special administrative region and 11 from the Taiwan region.

It is worth noting that from 0 to 24:00 on February 4, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps reported 3,971 new suspected cases (1957 cases in hubei province). It was the second consecutive day that the number of new suspected cases fell. Previously, there were 5,173 new suspected cases on February 2 (3,260 in hubei province) and 5,072 new suspected cases on February 3 (3,182 in hubei province).

So does this mean an inflection point is imminent? According to CCTV news report, in February 4 CCTV “news 1 + 1” program, the host bai yansong questions countries WeiJianWei expert group members, Beijing ditan hospital infection branch chief physician Jiang Rong fierce said, the question really is not very good answer, now suspected cases increases, the next stage there could be more suspected patients need screening, resistance to disease task is arduous, inflection point does not appear soon.

Jiang rongmeng also said that the following may also appear an incubation period, 6 is the first incubation period, and then back is 20, suspected patients are still increasing.

Next, we need to keep an eye on the progress of the pneumonia outbreak and be alert to investors’ risk sentiment turning and triggering market volatility.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index rebounded from its low, the MACD red momentum column expanded slightly, and the KDJ random index turned higher, indicating that the dollar’s rebound momentum has strengthened, followed by or continued to expand.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index continued to maintain a moderate rebound trend, with the MACD red momentum column holding steady, and the KDJ random index slightly higher, indicating that the short-term rebound momentum of the dollar is still in place and the upward trend is expected to continue.

gold

On the daily chart, gold edged down from its recent high to below its 20-day moving average. Technically, MACD green kinetic energy column expanded, KDJ random index significantly lower, indicating the gold price downward momentum is strong, the next material to continue the decline.

On the 4-hour chart, gold extended its retreat, with the MACD green momentum column narrowing slightly and the KDJ random index trading modestly flat, indicating that gold could slip into a narrow range consolidation in the short term.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

1, 24 to February 4th, national health committee received 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps has reported 24324 cases of confirmed cases (hainan subtract 1 case), the existing 3219 cases of serious illness case of illness, and death cases of 490 cases, cure the hospital cases 892 cases (hainan, subtract 1 case), hubei province, the existing 23260 cases suspected cases.

2. Officials at the U.S. centers for disease control and prevention (CDC) confirmed that 11 cases have been confirmed in the United States, two of which were transmitted through human contact within the country.

3. So far, 10,000 Americans have died from the flu, as a new coronavirus wreaths havoc and world leaders close borders to protect their citizens from the disease, according to a new CNBC report.

4. The world health organization’s director-general tandsai said it was “dangerous” that the world might not be prepared for the next pandemic.

5. Data released on Monday showed the monthly rate of U.S. construction spending fell 0.2 percent in December, compared with expectations of a 0.5 percent increase after a 0.6 percent rise. U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in December, the first decline since June, as an investment in both private and public projects fell. For all of 2019, U.S. construction spending fell 0.3 percent, the first decline since 2011.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. Data released on Tuesday showed U.S. factory orders rose at a 1.8 percent monthly rate in December and were expected to rise 1.2 percent, revised from a 0.7 percent decline.

2. The institute for supply management said on Monday that the ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, the highest since July, from 47.8 in December. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11 percent of the U.S. economy. The ISM index has been below 50 for five straight months. Analysts surveyed had expected the index to rise to 48.5 in January from 47.2 in December.

3. At 23:00 local time on January 31 (24:00 Brussels time on January 31, 07:00 Beijing time on February 1), the UK officially left the eu, becoming the first country in history to leave the eu.

4. Data released on Friday showed U.S. consumer confidence slightly higher than expected and close to a cyclical peak on the back of a strong job market and strong income growth.

5. The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, released on Friday, rose 0.3 percent in December from the previous month, the biggest gain since April. U.S. prices rose 1.6 percent in December from a year earlier, the biggest gain in a year.

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