Gold investment: worst slump since the great depression? The epidemic hasn’t peaked yet! Bulls brew a superstorm!

On Wednesday (April 15) sub-session, the international spot gold at 1720.90 usd/oz, the last session of the gold price all the way up the volatility, the highest hit 1746.90 usd/oz, and then began to withdraw from the point, and now continue to maintain the trend of withdrawal, the intraday low hit 1720.40 usd/oz, since the day high has dropped 10 usd.

Gold surged nearly 2 per cent in the last session, hitting its highest level since late 2012, as investors piled into safe-haven assets such as gold as the covid-19 outbreak hit the global economy and triggered a massive stimulus package.

The international monetary fund said on Tuesday it expects the global economy to contract by 3.0 per cent in 2020 as a coronavirus outbreak shuts down economic activity, the worst downturn since the great depression of the 1930s.

The sharp economic downturn and massive government bailout spending caused by the new outbreak will nearly quadruple the fiscal 2020 deficit to a record $3.8 trillion, or 18.7 percent of gross domestic product, the committee for a responsible federal budget said on Monday.

Statistics from real-time data update site worldometers show that as of 06:57 Beijing time on April 15, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 1.99 million, with 1,991,810 confirmed cases and 126,019 deaths of more than 120,000. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 610,000, with 611,156 cases, and the total number of deaths exceeded 25,000, reaching 25,924.

US President Donald trump announced at a White House press conference on April 14 that the us would suspend funding for the world health organization. Trump accused the world health organization of failing to share information on the outbreak, provide timely policy advice on prevention, and declare a “global pandemic”.

Who spokeswoman Margaret Harris said at a briefing on Monday that the current outbreak in Europe is a mixed bag, with new cases slowly starting to decline in Italy and Spain, but they are increasing in countries such as Turkey and the UK. Margaret Harris says more than 90 percent of the new cases are now in the United States and Europe, and the current outbreak in the United States is the worst in the world for a single country. The who believes that the new outbreak has not yet peaked.

“There is a lot of safe-haven buying in gold,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures in London. The fed pumped out $2 trillion just last week, and other central Banks around the world are doing the same; With interest rates at or near zero and the market worried, this has created the perfect environment for gold to rise above $2,000 an ounce.

Strategists such as ing’s Chris Turner said on Tuesday that after the fed’s aggressive action, and the market’s growing sense that the worst is over for most financial assets, cross-market indicators suggest the dollar may have peaked. Gold, a classic inflation hedge, is above $1,700 an ounce and could go higher. That suggests investor confidence is at least improving and may start to move money out of safe-haven markets such as the dollar and Treasury bills.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index maintained the recent pullback trend, the MACD green momentum column expanded, the KDJ random index further lower, indicating the dollar to strengthen downward momentum, the next expected to continue to extend the decline.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index moderately under pressure, the MACD green momentum column unchanged, the KDJ random index moderately lower, indicating that the dollar short term downward momentum is still there but the strength is limited, next expected to continue to moderate decline.

gold

On the daily chart, gold held steady upward momentum, the MACD red momentum column further amplified, the KDJ random index moderately higher, indicating gold momentum strengthening, may still further expand the rally.

On the 4-hour chart, the gold price rose after a slight fall in pressure, the MACD red kinetic energy column narrowed, the KDJ random index significantly lower, indicating gold short – term downward momentum is back, and may continue to retreat.

fundamentals Positive factors :

  1. According to statistics from real-time information and data update website world meters, as of 06:57 Beijing time on April 15, the global cumulative number of confirmed COVID-19 cases has exceeded 1.99 million, with 1,991,810 confirmed cases and 126,019 deaths of more than 120,000. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 610,000, with 611,156 cases, and the total number of deaths exceeded 25,000, reaching 25,924.
  2. US President Donald trump announced at a White House press conference on April 14 that the us would suspend funding for the world health organization. Trump accused the world health organization of failing to share information on the outbreak, provide timely policy advice on prevention, and declare a “global pandemic”.
  3. Who spokeswoman Margaret Harris said at a briefing on Monday that the current outbreak in Europe is a mixed bag, with new cases slowly falling in Italy and Spain, but increasing in Turkey, Britain and other countries. More than 90 percent of the new cases are now in the us and Europe, where the current outbreak is the worst in a single country. The who believes that the new outbreak has not yet peaked.
  4. Us consumer prices fell 0.4 percent in March, the biggest monthly drop in five years, as Americans stopped traveling and the cost of petrol, airfares and hotel rooms fell sharply. The drop in March was the biggest since January 2015, according to the labor department. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy, fell 0.1% in March, the first monthly decline since January 2010.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. On Tuesday (April 14), China’s exports fell by 6.6% in March from a year earlier, lower than economists’ forecasts of a 14% drop. Imports fell less than 1 per cent from a year earlier, below economists’ forecasts of a 9.5 per cent drop. Risk sentiment returned after better-than-expected economic data from China.
  2. The head of the centers for disease control and prevention said on Monday that the U.S. is close to the peak of the outbreak. The outbreak in the United States is stabilizing and the number of COVID 19 cases in the United States is expected to begin to decline in the coming days.

3, local time 13, the White House press conference, trump said that the recent data of new confirmed cases and new cases of hospitalization data, the spread of the epidemic in the United States began to show a flat trend. Mr Trump said it was possible to restart the economy sooner rather than later.

  1. New York governor Andrew Cuomo said he believed “the worst is over” as hospital admissions in the worst-hit state appeared to have stabilized near high levels.

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