Gold investment: Zhong Nanshan said the biggest problem still does not know why the virus so infectious! Gold stop four Yang, down is still a buying opportunity?

International spot gold traded at $1,567.50 an ounce in early Asian trading on Wednesday. Gold, which traded in a choppy range, rose as high as $1,573.92 an ounce before retreating sharply from that point to as low as $1,561.99.

As the number of new cases of coronary pneumonia in China slowed, Chinese factories resumed production and risk aversion cooled, gold suffered some selling pressure, ending lower for the first time in four consecutive sessions.

“Gold is down slightly and stocks are at another round of record highs because of rumors that the impact of the coronavirus has been a little overinterpreted,” said David Meger, head of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. However, given the strength of global equity markets and the fact that gold continues to perform so well, a fall in gold will remain an easy buy.”

“The long-term bullish backdrop for gold will remain largely supported by central bank physical demand and growing risks to global growth, which will trigger a new round of global stimulus,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA, said in a note.

Cases of pneumonia caused by the new coronavirus have fallen in some areas and are expected to peak in mid-to-late February and may end by April, zhong said on Tuesday. The forecasts are based on existing mathematical models, recent outbreaks and measures taken by the government. But he acknowledged that much was still unknown about the new coronavirus: “we don’t know why it’s so contagious, that’s the biggest problem.”

Outbreak, the latest data according to the national guard is built appoint, on February 11, 0-24, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps report, new confirmed cases, 2015 cases (1638 cases) of hubei province, and severe cases 871 cases (897 cases) of hubei province, the new death cases, 97 cases (94 cases of hubei, henan, hunan, chongqing, 1 case), the new suspected cases 3342 cases (1685 cases) of hubei province.

A total of 744 cases (417 in hubei province) were cured and discharged from the hospital on the same day, and 300,068 people were released from medical observation.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index has retreated from its high, the MACD red momentum column has narrowed, and the KDJ random index is slightly under pressure, indicating that the dollar’s pullback momentum has restarted and may continue to retreat.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index was trading under pressure temporarily below the 98.97 high, with the MACD green momentum column expanding slightly and the KDJ random index trading modestly lower, indicating that the dollar will continue to be under pressure in the short term.

gold

On the daily chart, gold traded in a tight range, with the MACD green momentum column unchanged and the KDJ random index moderately flat, indicating that gold may continue to be stuck in a period of consolidation.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, gold traded in a narrow range under pressure, with the MACD green kinetic energy column unchanged and the KDJ random index moderately flat, indicating that gold may also continue to trade in a narrow range.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. As of 24:00 on February 11, the 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the xinjiang production and construction corps reported 38,800 confirmed cases (including 8,204 severe cases), 4,740 cured and discharged cases, 1,113 deaths, 44,653 confirmed cases and 16,067 suspected cases. A total of 451,462 close contacts were traced, and 185,037 close contacts were under medical observation.

2. On February 10, the director-general of the world health organization (who) Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned that there was a risk of a new outbreak of coronary pneumonia spreading widely outside China, calling on all countries to seize the opportunity to stop the spread of human to human. Meanwhile, who warned that the current outbreak linked to patients who had not visited China could be “the tip of the iceberg”.

3. Philadelphia fed President Richard Harker said on Monday that the fed was monitoring the impact of the outbreak, but added that not much could be done.

4. With more deaths from new coronary pneumonia than from the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, the world health organization said the number of cases outside China was likely to be the “tip of the iceberg”.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. According to the statistics of the national health and fitness commission, from 0 to 24:00 on February 11, 377 new cases were confirmed in all regions except hubei, showing a declining trend for the 8th consecutive day. In the past, there were 890 cases (3 days), 731 cases (4 days), 707 cases (5 days), 696 cases (6 days), 558 cases (7 days), 509 cases (8 days), 444 cases (9 days) and 381 cases (10 days).
  2. According to the statistics of hubei provincial health and fitness commission, from February 9 to February 11, the number of new cases of coronary pneumonia in hubei province decreased for two consecutive days, with 2618 cases on February 9, 2097 cases on February 10 and 1638 cases on February 11.
  3. Zhong nanshan, head of the high-level expert group of China’s national health and fitness commission, said in his latest assessment of the outbreak of the new coronavirus on Tuesday that the outbreak is expected to peak in February and possibly end in April.
  4. On 11 February, the world health organization (WHO) announced that the new coronavirus had been officially named “covid-19”. The international committee for the classification of viruses began discussions about three weeks ago and took two days to decide on an official name before submitting it to a scientific journal, the report said. In addition, who said the development of a vaccine could be completed within 18 months.

5. Fed chief colin Powell said the fed was “closely monitoring” the coronavirus and its impact on China, as well as its possible impact on global economic growth. Despite the threat of a virus, he said the fed’s policy was well positioned after a series of interest rate cuts in 2019.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *