Gold investments: $200, 000 a day in the US? Internal government document predicts outbreak to worsen! Gold may hit a new high!

Spot gold continued to trade in a tight range around the 1700 mark on Tuesday, awaiting further stimulus as markets focused on the us-china trade situation and developments in the aftermath of the outbreak in many countries.

Gold rallied strongly last day, briefly rising above 1710 from above 1690, though it eased slightly in late trading to close above the 1700 mark.

According to statistics from real-time data update website worldometers, as of 10:36 Beijing time on May 5, there were more than 3.64 million confirmed cases of COVID 19 worldwide, of which 3,645,539 have been confirmed and 252,396 have died and more than 250,000 have died.

Among them, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 1.21 million, with 1,212,835 cases, and the total number of deaths exceeded 69,000, with 69,921 cases.

The New York times reported on May 4 that novel coronavirus cases and deaths will rise steadily in the coming weeks, according to an internal government document obtained by the New York times, as the trump administration calls for an economic reboot.

The government predicts that the number of covid-19 deaths in a single day could reach 3,000 on June 1st, almost double the current figure.

The forecast, compiled by the federal emergency management agency based on a CDC model, suggests that 200,000 new cases could be confirmed in the us in a single day by the end of the month, up from the current level of about 25,000 a day.

The Numbers underscore a sobering reality: the United States has been taking action over the past seven weeks to try to slow the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make things worse.

The us centers for disease control and prevention warned: “the burden of the outbreak continues to increase in many areas.”

However, White House spokeswoman Judd Deere responded: “it is not a White House document, it has not been submitted to the task force on novel coronavirus or reviewed by the appropriate agency, and it does not reflect any models or data that have been analyzed by the task force. The President’s phased guidelines for restarting the U.S. economy are based on science and agreed by government health and infectious disease experts. The health of the American people is the President’s number one concern.”

US President Donald trump said on Sunday that he now believed as many as 100,000 americans could die from the new outbreak, but he also said he believed a vaccine could be developed by the end of the year. The number of deaths has exceeded trump’s previous estimate.

“Our death toll will be between 75,000, 80,000 and 100,000. It’s scary, “Mr Trump said. He said Friday that he wanted fewer than 100,000 U.S. deaths, compared with about 60,000 to 70,000 earlier in the week.

But trump also said that without his action, the situation would have been worse, with “at least 1.2 million, 1.4 million, 1.5 million dead, maybe more, more than 2.2 million dead.”

Mr Trump has said that if he is re-elected, the economy will rebound this summer and prosper next year. “We’re going to have a great year next year,” he said.

He said congress would step up efforts to deal with the novel coronavirus outbreak and significantly increase financial rescue aid.

As for gold, Richard Hayes, chief executive of The Perth Mint, said The outlook was good as The world faced a series of bad economic data, The possibility of a second coronavirus outbreak and unlimited stimulus measures triggered demand from gold investors.

“As all the restrictions are gradually relaxed and companies start to reopen, that will certainly have an impact on precious metals prices,” Mr Hayes said. What I would say is that after hearing reports from the CDC and the world health organization, there may be a second wave of COVID 19. If there is a second wave of covid-19, that would give gold a reasonable boost.”

Mr. Hayes said he wouldn’t be surprised if gold, denominated in dollars, hit a record high in the near term. In percentage terms, he added, gold is not far off its all-time high of 2011-12.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the dollar index on the day strong rebound, break through the key 50 day average resistance, trading is currently around 99.45, technical point of view, MACD green kinetic energy column weakened, RSI index hovering around 50, KDJ random index close to oversold level, there is room to rebound.

On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index is still in the strong rising trend since 98.77, the upper 100 period average pressure, focus on whether can stand 20 period average 99.28 level. The MACD red kinetic energy column starts to weaken, and the KDJ random indicator hits an overbought level, short term or a correction.

gold

On the daily chart, gold prices on the day down, currently in a narrow range near the 1700 level, focus on whether effectively break this level. The MACD green kinetic energy column expanded slightly, while the KDJ random index attempted to break below the 50 level, short term or slightly under pressure.

On the 4-hour chart, gold is wrapped around the 20-ema, while the 100-ema above $1,705 is a short squeeze. MACD red kinetic energy column weakened, KDJ random index down close to 50 levels, short or continue to go down.

fundamentals Positive factors :

  1. According to statistics from real-time information and data update website world meters, as of 10:36 Beijing time on May 5, there were more than 3.64 million confirmed cases of COVID 19 worldwide, of which 3,645,539 have been confirmed and 252,396 have died and more than 250,000 have died.
  2. According to an internal document obtained by the New York Times, as of June 1, the daily death toll will reach about 3,000, nearly double the current figure of about 1,750. By the end of the month, about 200,000 new cases will be confirmed every day, up from about 25,000 now. In addition, an influential coronavirus model, often cited by the White House, now predicts that novel coronavirus will kill 134,000 people in the United States, nearly double previous estimates.
  3. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, st. Louis federal reserve bank President James Bullard said he is concerned about the potential for a recession if the shutdown lasts too long and the problems of restarting the economy are not handled well.
  4. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that he was considering retaliatory measures against China for its response to the novel coronavirus outbreak and that raising tariffs on Chinese imports “is certainly an option.”

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. The U.S. Treasury said on Monday it plans to sell nearly $3 trillion in debt in the second quarter of 2020, the highest quarterly issuance on record.
  2. The chairman of the ways and means committee is calling for a 90-day moratorium on all products related to the novel coronavirus health crisis.
  3. The Korean central news agency said Saturday that Kim jong UN, chairman of the workers’ party and the state council of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), attended the completion ceremony of a fertilizer plant north of the capital, Pyongyang, in the first report of his public activities since April 11.
  4. British ministers will begin talks on a trade deal with the United States in the coming week, the Sun reported Friday, as the government ordered formal talks to begin despite a novel coronavirus outbreak.

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