Spot gold traded at $1, 584.70 an ounce in Asia on Thursday morning. Gold rose slightly to $1,595.20 an ounce on the day, then retreated from that point, falling more than $10 at the day’s high.
Gold rallied in the last session as investors sought safe havens after bleak U.S. economic data heightened fears of a recession as the world stepped up efforts to contain the spread of a new pandemic.
Soni Kumari, commodities strategist at ANZ, said the backdrop of unprecedented economic easing had been luring investors into safe-haven assets such as gold, with central Banks around the world expanding their balance sheets and preparing to ease policy further to mitigate the impact of the outbreak. As a result, real interest rates are expected to remain deeply negative for some time, a backdrop that still favors gold.
Mike McGlone, senior market analyst at BI, said in a recent report that the performance of the gold market is very similar to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis. With interest rates close to zero, or even negative, and the fed seemingly embarking on an open-ended stimulus similar to the one it unleashed in 2008, gold will hit a peak of $1,900 an ounce later in the day, the next stage of recovery. If the financial crisis of 2008 is anything to go by, “recovery” means another record for gold.
20:30 on Thursday (Beijing time) the United States will be released as of March 28, when the jobless claims, after in 3.283 million the previous week, the week March 28, the data may be a surprise again, MarketWatch, according to the survey for the week ending March 28, there may be 4 million unemployed or waiting staff successfully applying for unemployment benefits, the consensus forecast for 1 million to 5.25 million, a few economists expect the data will further rise sharply, Grant Thornton’s chief economist, Diane Swonk thinks, if the data in 10 million, Nor is it surprising; In addition, initial claims for state unemployment benefits for the week ended March 21 were likely revised up to 3.3 million from 3.283 million.
Investors were deeply skeptical about the next batch of U.S. jobs data for march, which could have cost millions of jobs in the past month because of the outbreak shutdown. The release of the data is likely to plunge investment confidence again. In this context, safe-haven assets also continue to be popular. People are waiting with bated breath for this week’s jobless claims data.
On the daily chart, the dollar index rebounded from its lows, the MACD green momentum column was unchanged, and the KDJ random index overall fell, indicating that the dollar still has downward momentum, and may fall again.
On the 4 hour chart, the dollar index is a narrow finishing trade, MACD red kinetic energy column unchanged, KDJ random index moderately higher, indicating that gold may continue to close short.
On the daily chart, gold prices began to shock retreat potential, MACD red kinetic energy column significantly narrowed, KDJ random index turned lower, indicating gold retreat momentum to strengthen, the next expected to continue to decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the gold price temporarily shows a narrow range of consolidation trading, MACD green kinetic energy column unchanged, KDJ random index slightly biased down, indicating that gold may be short range pressure trading.
fundamentals Positive factors :
- According to media reports and statistics, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 930,000, reaching 935,957 and 47,245 deaths. More than 210,000 cases of COVID 19 have been confirmed in the United States, the most in the world. As of 11:30 on April 2, Beijing time, there have been a total of 215,215 confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States.
- April 1 small U.S. nonfarm payrolls showed that ADP employers shed 27,000 jobs in March, the lowest level since January 2010.
- The final Markit manufacturing PMI for march released on April 1 in the United States was 48.5, compared with the expected 48, and the previous reading was 49.2, the lowest since August 2009. Markit said its manufacturing PMI and new orders index both hit their lowest levels since August 2009.
- US President Donald trump called a novel coronavirus a plague and said the us was facing “a very, very painful two weeks”. Dr. Bill bilks, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said he still expects 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States, with the death toll expected to peak in the next two weeks.
Fundamental negative factors:
- On April 1, the federal reserve reduced the likelihood of a dollar crunch by expanding the ability of dozens of foreign central Banks to obtain dollars during the novel coronavirus crisis, allowing them to swap their holdings of U.S. debt for overnight loans in dollars.
- The sell-off in global stock markets highlights the growing risk of an outbreak that shows little sign of abating, given mounting evidence of a sharp global economic downturn. The dollar’s status as a global reserve currency makes it a natural safe haven.
- Russia’s central bank announced on Monday that it would stop buying gold from April 1, without explaining why.