In Asian trading on Monday, spot gold remained high and consolidated after last week’s rally, hitting a high of $1,635 on the day before falling back to around $1,615 and remaining above the key $1,600 level.
Gold surged last week, Posting its biggest weekly gain since 2008. Gold bulls have been encouraged by the federal reserve’s unlimited QE program and the $2 trillion U.S. stimulus package. In addition, the dollar has retreated, which is also positive for gold.
In terms of the epidemic situation, according to real-time data from Johns Hopkins university, as of 09:30 on March 30, the global total number of confirmed cases has exceeded 720,000, including 142,000 in the United States, 97,000 in Italy and 80,000 in Spain.
Last week’s central bank “split-money” strategy worked, with the federal reserve’s announcement last Monday of unlimited quantitative easing and the use of swap lines by central Banks to solve dollar supply shortages around the world, the need to sell other currencies for dollars no longer as strong as the previous week and market panic easing.
At the same time, trillions of dollars in government stimulus measures have helped ease the global market turmoil caused by the novel coronavirus outbreak. The U.S. house of representatives on Friday approved the largest aid package in U.S. history, a $2.2 trillion plan to help individuals and businesses deal with the economic downturn caused by an outbreak of novel coronavirus and provide much-needed medical supplies to hospitals.
“What we are seeing is that the pressure in the money markets is easing. So far, the actions of central Banks have been successful and the dollar shortage problem is no longer there, “said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of currency and commodities research at commerzbank.
Separately, U.S. President Donald trump, who has talked about reopening the United States for Easter on April 12, said Sunday he would extend guidelines aimed at slowing the spread of novel coronavirus to April 30 from April 12. Mr Trump stressed on Sunday that he thought the us would be free from the pandemic by June 1.
He said the peak of new outbreaks could come around Easter. He added that the number of deaths from the new outbreak could reach 2.2 million, and that if the United States can control it to 100,000 to 200,000, it means we are “doing well.”
Novel coronavirus infections in the United States could reach millions and kill as many as 200,000 people, the government’s chief infectious disease expert warned on Sunday.
As for the gold outlook, TD Securities sees it rising to $1,800 an ounce and $2,000 by the end of the year. Bart Melek, a strategist at the bank, said there are many factors supporting gold at the moment, and those factors will continue to support gold as we wait for a turning point in the global outbreak.
Sean Lusk, commercial hedging director at Walsh Trading in New York, said if the current situation is bad for gold, you don’t know what’s good for gold. In the short term, gold’s $1,700 / oz move will be a resistance level. Eventually, gold will surpass the record highs of 2011.
On the daily chart, the usd index is trying to stabilize after four days of sharp declines. Currently, the usd index is hovering around 98.60, focusing on whether it can get back above the 50-day average of 98.62 at the close. On the technical side, the MACD green kinetic energy column appears initially, the RSI index is stable and hovering around 50, and the KDJ random index drops below the 50 level from the bottom, there is still room for further decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index is still in a volatile downward trend from the 103 level, has now broken through the key 200 moving average 98.87, focus on the future can return to this level above. From the technical perspective, MACD green kinetic energy column gradually weakened, RSI index rebounded from the oversold level, KDJ random index is still in the oversold level, focusing on the possibility of correction rebound.
On the daily chart, gold is still in the high consolidation momentum, currently hovering around $1620, still above the main moving average. From the technical perspective, the MACD red kinetic energy column gradually expanded, the RSI index held steady above the 50 level, and the KDJ random index approached the overbought level. There was still upside space.
On the 4-hour chart, gold’s recent rally has slowed significantly, trading above its 200-year and 100-year averages of $1599 and $1584. In technical terms, MACD green kinetic energy column gradually expanded, KDJ random index fell below the 50 level, short or further shock.
fundamentals Positive factors:
- According to media reports and data statistics, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 720,000, with a total of 722088 cases confirmed. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 140,000, making it the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
- Japan will refuse entry to foreigners from the United States, China, South Korea and most of Europe, kyodo news reported, citing a novel coronavirus.
- US President Donald trump extended a 15-day “social distanceadvice” issued two weeks ago to April 30, saying the death toll could peak within two weeks.
- A novel coronavirus virus infection in the United States could number in the millions and kill as many as 200,000 people, the government’s chief infectious disease expert warned on Sunday.
Fundamental negative factors:
- The U.S. House of representatives on Friday approved the largest aid package in U.S. history, a $2.2 trillion plan to help American individuals and businesses deal with the economic downturn caused by avirus outbreak called novel coronavirus and provide much-needed medical supplies to hospitals.
- The dow closed up 1,351.62 points, or 6.4%, at 22,552.17, ending its biggest three-day rally since 1931. Over the past three days, the dow has risen more than 21.3%, its best three-day winning streak since October 1931, as a $2 trillion bailout helped pull it out of a technical bear market.
- The U.S. senate on Wednesday voted unanimously to pass a $2 trillion bill aimed at helping the unemployed and industries hit by an outbreak of novel coronavirus.
- The federal reserve said on Monday it would buy as many bonds as possible to stabilize financial markets and guarantee direct loans to companies to spur a further recovery in risk sentiment.