The DOLLAR index.DXY extended its decline in Asian trading on Tuesday and is now below the 92 level, last trading near 91.90. Spot gold’s short-term gains accelerated as the price of the yellow metal broke through the $1,980 / Troy ounce barrier recently and is now trading as high as $1,982.17 / Troy ounce. In addition to the dollar’s weakness, gold has also been driven higher by safe-haven buying sparked by geopolitical tensions. With all the news about China and India, investors need to be alert to the rapidly escalating tensions between the two countries. There is also new news in China-Us relations, with media reports suggesting that Mr Trump is considering restrictions on Chinese students travelling to the US, and that further restrictions or bans on Chinese students could trigger retaliatory measures from China.
Gold gained momentum as the dollar fell to a two-year low as the Federal Reserve switched to a dovish policy. The dollar index.DXY fell 1.24 percent in August, its worst August performance in five years and its longest monthly decline since the summer of 2017.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Larry Clarida said Monday the central bank will not raise interest rates just because the unemployment rate has fallen. He acknowledges that past policies may have gone astray because they followed a pattern that did not work in a world where low interest rates would be the norm.
He acknowledged that the Fed’s past model of rising wages and inflation as more people worked “could be and has been wrong” and that a rate rise was “hard to justify” just because a model suggested that inflation was coming.
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell announced a major policy shift at the central bank’s annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Mr Powell says the Fed will adopt an average inflation target, which means that interest rates are likely to remain low even if inflation rises slightly in the future.
Powell’s comments last week extended the dollar’s downward trend. The Federal Reserve’s stimulus to offset the impact of the Novel Coronavirus pandemic on the economy pushed up risky assets and hurt the safe-haven dollar.
“I think what we’re seeing is a continuation of the dollar’s decline that started in the second quarter,” said Daniel Katzive, head of currency strategy for North America at BNP Paribas. The Fed’s message last week reinforced that.”
Jeffrey Sica, founder of Circle Alternative Investments, said: “The weaker dollar and the expectation of further dollar weakness has led to a slight rise in gold.”
“Gold will continue to be one of the best beneficiaries of a weaker dollar and is expected to pass $2,000 again in the coming weeks,” Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, wrote in a report on Monday.
“The Fed has said it can keep inflation above its 2 percent target for some time and it looks as if they will keep monetary policy extremely loose, which should help gold,” said David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets UK.
“A shift in Fed policy is likely to reignite the ‘inflation trade,’ which has historically favored hard assets such as gold,” Kitco Metals senior analyst Jim Wyckoff said in a report. Low interest rates tend to support gold, which is also a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation.
Gold is back above $1967.90 an ounce, the leading financial website Economies.com wrote on Tuesday, keeping the bullish trend scenario alive for the next few trading days. With the outlook for gold continuing to be bullish, the next gold price target is $2008.80 / oz.
Investors will also continue to keep an eye on geopolitical developments such as the U.S. and China and India, and any negative news could spur risk aversion and push gold higher.
After two weeks of consolidation below $2,000 an ounce, expectations have risen that gold prices could regain key psychological levels this week, according to Kitco’s Weekly Gold Survey released on Friday.
Last week, 15 Wall Street professionals took part in this week’s survey. Of those who took part, 12 (80 per cent) expected gold to rise; Three analysts (20%) are neutral on the market and none is bearish.
“The ultra-dovish new stance of Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell in Jackson Hole has made gold even more indispensable,” said Adrian Day, CHIEF executive of Adrian Day Asset Management. Day added that he is also bullish on gold because there appears to be a lot of pent-up demand for the metal during this consolidation phase.
Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at MKS(Switzerland), said he was bullish on gold as it managed to hold on to key near-term support above $1,900. He added that with the dollar unable to break through a significant resistance level, gold could move higher to $2,000.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group in New York, said he is also bullish on gold recently because the Fed has chosen to support the labor market rather than inflation.
President Trump is considering restricting Chinese students from traveling to a US university and expelling all Chinese students sent by government agencies
Us Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in an interview on Monday that President Trump is considering restricting Chinese students from studying in the US, adding that the US government could announce new actions against China in the coming weeks and months.
Pompeo spoke during an interview with radio station WMAL, which is hosted by Vince Coglianese and Mary Walter. He was responding to a question about the US government’s crackdown on Chinese citizens spying on student visas and academic research jobs.
Asked if more Chinese students would be barred from entering the United States “sooner” over a period of time, Pompeo said: “I don’t want to give an early indication of the decisions that the President is reviewing.”
Pompeo responded: “Listen, not every Chinese student here works for the benefit of, or under the direction of, the Chinese Communist Party, but this is something that President Trump takes seriously.”
“I think you’re going to see a lot more follow-through in the coming weeks and months,” Mr. Pompeo said.
In May, the New York Times reported that Mr Trump was considering cancelling the visas of thousands of Chinese graduate students and researchers from Chinese universities linked to the People’s Liberation Army, China’s military.
Restrictions on Chinese students and researchers could hit American universities, because Chinese students are one of the largest groups of international students paying to study in the United States. The fees they pay are seen as supporting courses in key areas such as science, technology, engineering and mathematics.
Further restrictions or bans on Chinese students could also trigger retaliatory measures from Beijing and further damage already low sino-us relations. The two countries have retaliated on diplomacy, trade, media access, human rights, the COVID-19 pandemic, The Chinese government’s claims to the South China Sea and Hong Kong’s security law.
Fifteen government-sponsored visiting scholars and students funded by China’s State Scholarship Council must leave the United States within a month after the University of North Texas cut ties with the organization that funds them, US media reported Monday.
According to screenshots of the email, the university abruptly decided on August 26 to suspend government-sponsored scholars and students who received funds from China scholarship Council, and deprived them of the right to continue to use the university’s servers, email addresses and other learning materials. Only the affected students were allowed to return to the university to collect their personal belongings. The screenshot of the email also shows that the school informed the relevant VISA authorities of the US government about the incident, saying that the study program of the Chinese visiting students and scholars had ended on August 26. All of the researchers are based in the US and are studying at the University of North Texas with a grant from the China Scholarship Council.
Trump has made China a key election issue, calling his administration’s policies tough on China, while attacking Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, who said his election would be a gift to the Chinese Communist Party.
The US Department of Commerce announced sanctions against 24 Chinese companies involved in building military islands in the South China Sea last Wednesday, the first time it has imposed sanctions on China over the issue. The Trump administration has placed 24 Chinese companies on a government list of companies banned from buying US products for helping the Chinese military build artificial islands in the disputed South China Sea.
According to the South China Morning Post, the PLA launched two missiles toward the South China Sea on the morning of August 26, one of which was the DF-21D carrier killer anti-ship missile, in a move aimed at warning the US. The U.S. Defense Department said Thursday that the missile launches threaten peace and security in the region. The Pentagon said in a statement that Beijing’s “actions, including missile tests, further destabilise the situation in the South China Sea”.
The Pentagon said on Friday that the Trump administration had identified 11 other Chinese companies owned or controlled by the Chinese military, including the construction giant China Communications Construction Corporation, setting the stage for new sanctions.
The news on the situation between China and India is constantly alert to the rapid escalation of the situation
China-india relations have attracted much attention recently. According to media reports, the Indian military issued a statement on August 31, saying that on the night of August 29 and 30, 2020, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) took provocative military actions to change the status quo in violation of the consensus reached through military and diplomatic contacts during the previous confrontation in the eastern part of Ladakh.
In a press release issued on August 31, Army spokesman Aman Anand said Chinese PEOPLE’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces conducted provocative military actions to change the status quo in violation of previous consensus reached between the two countries in military and diplomatic mediation on the evening of August 29 and 30.
The statement said the Indian military had pre-emptively strengthened its position on the south bank of Pangong Tso, thwarting China’s intention to unilaterally change the facts on the ground. The statement noted that the Indian military is committed to maintaining peace and tranquillity through dialogue, but is equally determined to protect its territorial integrity.
‘To address these issues, China and India are holding a bridger-level flag meeting in Chushul to deal with the situation,’ the statement added. No specific casualties were given, according to an Indian military statement.
Responding to the latest allegations from India, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on August 31 that Chinese border troops have always strictly observed the Line of Actual Control and have never crossed the line. The border troops of the two countries have been in communication on local issues.
“China and India have maintained close communication through diplomatic and military channels,” Zhao added. As for the specific meetings and talks, if we have any information, we will release it in a timely manner.”
On June 15, a deadly clash between Chinese and Indian troops in the Galawan Valley resulted in the deaths of several people. The situation eased after emergency talks between the two sides’ diplomatic and military chiefs, but the Lake District remains the biggest sticking point in the standoff.
On August 31, Senior Colonel Zhang Shuihui, spokesman of the Western Theater Command, said in a statement on the china-India border situation that on August 31, the Indian army broke the consensus reached by the previous multi-level talks between the two sides and illegally crossed the line again near the south bank of Bangong Lake and The Reqin Pass, making a blatant provocation and causing tension along the border. China is strongly opposed to the Indian move, which grossly violates China’s territorial sovereignty, seriously undermines peace and stability in the China-India border areas, reneges on its commitments and betrays its loyalty. We solemnly request the Indian side to immediately withdraw its illegal occupation and control forces, strictly control and restrain its frontline troops, earnestly abide by its commitments and avoid further escalation of the situation. The Chinese military is taking necessary countermeasures and will closely follow the developments to resolutely safeguard China’s territorial sovereignty and peace and stability in border areas.
New Delhi: Indian troops have captured a major Chinese military outpost, the Telegraph reported on Monday. The move came after the Indian army allegedly repelled an attempt by the People’s Liberation Army of China to further occupy Indian territory in the disputed Ladakh border region. A senior Indian police source told the Telegraph that the attack had been repulsed and that a special operations battalion had retaliated by seizing a Chinese camp in the early hours of this morning in the mountains near Lake Bangong-cho.
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi delivered a speech and answered questions at the French Institute of International Relations on August 30, 2020, according to a report on the Website of the Chinese Foreign Ministry on Tuesday.
“China-India relations have recently attracted a lot of attention. What I want to tell you is that China has always been committed to maintaining stability in the China-India border area,” Wang said. We will not take the initiative to complicate or escalate the situation. Of course, we should also firmly safeguard our sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Boundary between China and India has not yet been demarcated, so there will always be problems of one kind or another. We are ready to manage all kinds of issues through dialogue with the Indian side. At the same time, these issues should be put in their proper place in bilateral relations.”