Gold prices were boosted on Monday by fresh news from China, the US and India as geopolitical tensions kept markets in a risk-off mood. In currency markets, the dollar edged up against a basket of currencies, while sterling took a hit against the dollar after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest comments on Brexit weighed on the pound.
Gold short – term surge above $1940
Spot gold closed below $1,934.86 an ounce on Friday, though it broke through that level after Asian trading began on Monday. Gold has just taken a short run, hitting as high as $1,940.88 an ounce.
If gold breaks through $1,934.86 an ounce and stays above that level, it will reactivate major bullish scenarios and move towards the first major target of $1967.90, according to Economies.com.
The mood among Wall Street analysts has changed, according to Kitco News’ Golden Weekly survey, released Friday. After rising bullish sentiment the previous week, Wall Street analysts were bearish last week. But while short-term sentiment in the gold market has shifted, many analysts see the fall as a buying opportunity.
Last week, 15 Wall Street professionals took part in Kitco’s latest survey. Four analysts (27 per cent) expect gold prices to rise; Nine analysts (40%) said they expect gold prices to fall, while five (33%) are neutral on gold.
“I hope the gold price keeps going down so I can buy more gold,” said Bill Baruch, President of Blue Line Futures.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities in New York, said that while the dollar has room to rise, strong fundamentals will continue to support gold. He added that he expected gold to continue to hold support at $1,920.
George Gero, managing director of Wealth Management at Royal Bank of Canada, said he remains bullish on gold in the near term as increased market uncertainty could push prices higher in line with the dollar.
Commerzbank’s head of commodities research Eugen Weinberg said he had been neutral on gold recently. He added that while the dollar is a near-term threat, it won’t be enough to break through current support levels for gold.
“There’s a lot to digest in this market,” Weinberg said. Without affecting the overall long-term trend, this consolidation period is likely to last much longer. Right now, I really don’t see anything that would push gold above $2,000. But I don’t see anything that would cause it to really go below $1,900.”
Analysts and traders are mostly bullish on the outlook for gold this week, according to the FX168 weekly Financial Market Survey released on Saturday. Among traders and analysts surveyed weekly by financial markets, 66.67 percent were bullish on gold and 33.33 percent were consolidation.
Brexit talk hits sterling
Sterling was last down against the dollar in Asian trading on Monday, trading near $1.3250. The pound has come under downward pressure amid a growing likelihood that no deal will be reached on Brexit.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was speaking tough on Sunday ahead of a crucial round of brexit trade talks with the European Union. He said Britain could walk out of the talks within weeks, insisting that a no-deal Brexit would be a “good outcome for Britain”.
Johnson said an agreement could be reached only if EU negotiators were prepared to “reconsider their current position.”
The pound jumped more than 30 points against the dollar on Monday, falling as low as 1.3238 in early trading, following Johnson’s remarks.
Mr Johnson said the UK government had set an October 15 deadline for a free trade deal with the EU and that if there was no deal, both sides should “accept it and move on”. Britain left the EU on January 31, but there has been little progress on a new trade deal.
The talks have stalled over Britain’s insistence that it has full autonomy over state aid and fisheries. Talks are due to resume in London on Tuesday.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said an agreement on trade must be reached as soon as possible, blaming The current impasse on Britain’s attitude. And Johnson said there is no point in considering a timeline beyond Oct. 15.
“If by that time we don’t agree, then I don’t think there will be a free trade agreement between us, and we should accept that and move on,” he said. Without a deal, Britain would have trade ties with the EU, as Australia has, which Mr Johnson will say would be “a good result”.
Britain is not afraid to leave without a deal at the end of the year, Brexit negotiator David Frost said on Sunday.
Mr Johnson said that if the EU were to reconsider its current position, there was still an expectation of an agreement based on a standard free trade agreement. “But we cannot and will not compromise the basic principles of an independent state,” he said.
The UK government is planning legislation to overturn key parts of the Brexit deal, threatening to break up trade talks with the EU, the Financial Times reported on Sunday.
The latest news comes from the border conflict between China and India
New Delhi: Amid continuing tensions along the China-India border, an Indian official said on Sunday that the Indian military has contacted The Chinese side via a military hotline regarding the “kidnapping” of five Indian men by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army near the disputed border and is awaiting a response from The Chinese side, the South China Morning Post reported on Monday.
Relations between the two Asian powers have deteriorated since the June 15 conflict in the Ladakh region. Twenty Indian soldiers were killed in the clashes.
Kiren Rijiju, Minister of State for Ethnic Affairs, said a military hotline aimed at easing tensions along the border had been activated because of the possible abductions. He is also an MP for (). “The Indian army has sent a hotline message to the PLA garrison at the ** border point,” Rijiju wrote on Twitter. Wait for a response.”
Police in The communist party told local media that they were investigating a Facebook claim by a man claiming to be a relative of one of the men that the People’s Liberation Army had kidnapped them. Local police have sent a special team to find out the truth and have arrived at the village to talk to the villagers.
The Arunachal Times reported Saturday that the men were hunting when they were abducted. It is not clear when they may have disappeared.
The incident came as India’s defense minister, Rajnath Singh, held talks in Moscow with his Chinese counterpart, General Wei Fenghe. This is the first time the two sides have met face-to-face at the highest level since a border dispute erupted in Ladakh in early May. Mr. Singh said they had a ‘frank’ discussion late Friday on the disputed Himalayan border and tensions between the two countries.
China and India issued tit-for-tat statements accusing each other of instigating the conflict.
Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh urged all points of friction in eastern Ladakh to return to their original state during talks with His Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe in Moscow on Friday, the Hindustan Times newspaper reported on Saturday. The talks, which lasted nearly two and a half hours, focused on how to resolve the long-running border standoff, the sources said.
Sources said the Indian delegation strongly opposed new attempts by The Chinese military to change the status quo on the southern bank of The Lake in eastern Ladakh and insisted on a negotiated solution to the impasse, Hindustan Times reported. India wants to restore the status quo at all points of friction in eastern Ladakh.
In June, 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a close battle with Chinese forces in The Galvan region of Ladakh, in the worst conflict between the two countries in 50 years. The two sides agreed to withdraw after five rounds of talks in the region. But India’s military said last week that China had violated that agreement by carrying out “provocative military actions aimed at changing the status quo”.
Responding to the Indian allegations, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on August 31 that Chinese border troops have always strictly observed the Line of Actual Control and have never crossed the line. The border troops of the two countries have been in communication on local issues.
For India, the official said in a statement on the china-india boundary “pre-emptive” measures, China’s foreign ministry spokesman HuaChunYing said at a regular press conference on September 2, India, the statement “without being pressed” fully proves that this incident was illegal troops cross the line provocation to unilaterally change the border region, in violation of the agreement and the settlement agreement between the first important consensus.
The US defence secretary said “the Pentagon is ready to respond to China”
In a signed article titled “Pentagon Ready to Deal with China,” U.S. Defense Secretary James Esper recently said that The Chinese military does not serve the country or the Constitution, but the Chinese Communist Party. To cope with China’s “military threat”, the United States needs to build a military force to fully counter China. On September 6, Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesman Ren Guoqiang said in response to the US Defense Secretary’s china-related remarks that the signed article published by the US Defense Secretary distorted the People’s Liberation Army without any basis and played up the so-called “China’s military threat”, which is totally groundless.
In an August 24 article in the Wall Street Journal titled ‘The Pentagon is ready for China,’ U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper proposed three major measures to counter the threat from the People’s Liberation Army. In a new era of global competition, Mr. Esper writes, the United States feels threatened by Chinese leaders’ positioning of the military and the potential to reshape the international order.
Esper also said China’s actions have prompted the PENTAGON to accelerate the implementation of the National Defense Strategy Report. First, to compete with China for the long term, the United States needs armed forces that can compete, deter, and win in all areas of land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace. Second, the United States needs to expand and strengthen its network of Allies and partners; Third, the United States needs to continue to build the capacity of its partners.