International spot gold was trading at $1,560.80 an ounce in early Asian trading. Gold rose to a high of $1,562.70 an ounce before settling into a volatile consolidation and is now trading just above $1,560.
There have been more rocket attacks in Iraq’s green zone in Baghdad
At about 010 local times on January 21, Iraqi capital Baghdad green zone was hit by three rockets near the U.S. embassy zone and international coalition camps, air raid sirens sounded.
The move comes after geopolitical concerns over a weekend missile attack in Yemen boosted gold’s safe-haven appeal, while pre-spring festival buying also provided support.
Houthis, allied with Iran, attacked a military training camp in the Yemeni city of malibu on Saturday, killing dozens of people.
Ajay Kedia, of Kedia Advisory in Mumbai, said: “Chinese New Year is coming, so there is some buying interest. The market is up because of central bank buying and geopolitical risks such as a missile attack on Yemen, which support gold prices.”
Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank, said investors were still pouring into gold despite the stock market rally, mainly because of long-term uncertainty such as political turmoil, potential stock market volatility, weak earnings expectations, and an ultra-low interest rate environment. Investors are pouring money into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and central banks are buying gold at a record pace.
Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose to 898.82 tonnes on Friday, the highest level since November 11.
Next, investors need to keep a close eye on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, where any unexpected news could trigger another bout of market volatility.
The IMF has cut its forecast for global growth
The international monetary fund on Monday cut its forecast for global growth in 2019, 2020 and 2021, warning that the outlook for the global economy remained weak with no clear sign of a turning point. The move comes after the IMF’s new managing director warned that the global economy risked sliding back into a depression, driven by inequality and turmoil in the financial sector.
The international monetary fund has become less optimistic about global growth and warned that the outlook for the world economy remained bleak with no clear sign of turning the corner.
In its latest world economic outlook, the IMF cut its forecast for global growth in 2020 to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent in October. It cut its estimate for global economic growth in 2019 to 2.9 percent from a previous estimate of 3 percent. The main reason for the downward revision in India’s slowing growth. It cut its forecast for global economic growth in 2021 to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent in October.
IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath said the expected recovery in global growth remained uncertain. With the growth in advanced economies stabilizing close to current levels, these will continue to rely on the recovery of stressed and underperforming emerging market economies.
Still, the IMF notes that some of the biggest economic uncertainties have disappeared. “With the US and China announcing a phase one deal and the likelihood of no-deal for Brexit receding, some of the risks have partially receded,” Gopinath said.
It added that monetary policy continued to support growth and strong financial conditions. With these developments, there are now signs that global growth may be stabilizing, albeit at a low level.
Notably, the IMF’s new managing director warned on Friday that the global economy, driven by inequality and turmoil in the financial sector, risked sliding back into a depression.
Speaking at the Peterson Institute for international economics in the US on Friday, ms Georgieva said a new study by the organization saw parallels between the current global economy and the “roaring twenties” of the last century when western cultural and financial excesses culminated in the Wall Street crash of 1929.
Georgieva added that new problems, such as the climate crisis and rising trade protectionism, meant that the next decade was likely to be marked by social unrest and financial market volatility, with the theme of rising uncertainty.
While the IMF’s latest economic outlook remained downbeat, gold rose only modestly on Monday as markets played down the gloom over the US holiday.
Mr. Trump will speak at Davos
The world economic forum 2020 annual meeting and Davos forum will be held from January 21 to 24 with the theme of “building global strength for sustainable development”.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of Davos. U.S. President Donald Trump, German chancellor Angela Merkel, and European central bank President Christine Lagarde will address other world leaders.
US President Donald Trump will deliver a speech at the world economic forum annual meeting 2020 at 18:30 Beijing time on Tuesday. Mr. Trump is expected to address the prospects for the US domestic economy and trade disputes with the European Union.
Mr. Trump is back in the spotlight after missing Davos last year because of the government shutdown. In 2018, Mr. Trump used the Davos speech to signal his aggressiveness on trade, an early sign of global trade tensions.
After the US signed a first-phase trade deal with China last week, analysts say Mr. Trump’s next target will be the EU. The move means the trade dispute is heating up, giving trump’s speech extra prominence.
Analysts said that if Mr. Trump reignited the us-European trade dispute in his latest speech, it would add to risk aversion in the market and thus spur further gains in gold prices.