Spot gold came under slight pressure in Asia on Tuesday, trading just above 1,560 after falling from a high above 1,580 to a near seven-year high as the U.S. killing of a senior Iranian commander raised fears of a widening conflict in the Middle East.
AG Thorson wrote a brief analysis of what’s next for gold:
Gold surged to a new high after confirming a recent six-month low. Prices have gone up by more than $100 since Christmas. The short-term trend is overbought and there should be a pullback.
As I explained earlier, gold prices fall to mid-range lows every six months.
The last cycle peaked at September and prices entered a lengthy cyclical correction. The stock rose above $1,492 on Christmas Eve, confirming a six-month low in November, and another rally is in the works.
Compared with gold, silver usually has a slow start but a strong finish.
If you feel you’ve missed gold and miners’ six-month lows, consider silver, which is just getting started.
If there is a breather, a small correction is likely. I think the support is between $17.40 and $17.70.
Overall, precious metals and mining stocks are breaking six-month lows. It never goes straight up, so expect a pullback somewhere.
The six-month cycle should last until February or march before reversing to the next intermediate low.