Multiple bad presses! Beware of the Middle East!

International spot gold was trading at $1557.20 an ounce in early Asian trading. Gold was volatile in the previous session, rising as high as $1,561.12 an ounce before retreating from that point and ending the day up slightly on the positive side at $1,557.09.

Gold T+D fell 1.11 yuan, or 0.34%, to 345.48 yuan per gram on Friday, with the highest bid of 346.47 yuan per gram and the lowest bid of 344.15 yuan per gram.

International spot gold, meanwhile, rose $4.94, or 0.32 percent, to $1552.22 an ounce from $1548.87 an ounce to $1561.10 an ounce at $1557.20.

Last week’s mood was unsettled, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East was briefly calm and the signing of a trade deal between China and the US failed to make much of a splash. Overall, gold was mixed for the week, falling as low as $1535.79 an ounce at the start of the week but rebounding on Tuesday as the us-china first phase trade agreement was signed.

The next week will see three major central bank rate decisions, with the bank of Japan, the bank of Canada and the European central bank due on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

At the same time, countries will release important economic data including price indices, unemployment, and PMI indices. U.S. data on existing homes will be released on Wednesday, followed by jobless claims on Thursday.

In addition, the world economic forum 2020 annual meeting and Davos forum will be held from January 21 to 24 with the theme of “building global strength for sustainable development”. The speeches of world leaders and economic experts at the forum will also be watched.

Finally, events in the Middle East may prove to be a lull, and geopolitical risks in the region will need to remain on the radar for the rest of the year, with any unexpected news likely to reignite sharp market volatility.

Technically, the daily chart shows gold trading in a tight range, with the MACD green momentum column showing, and the KDJ random index continuing to move modestly lower, indicating that gold still has the momentum to fall and could yet fall again.

As shown in the 4-hour chart, gold prices traded in a narrow range under pressure, the MACD red kinetic energy column remained unchanged and the solid was relatively narrow, and the KDJ random index slightly tilted down, indicating that gold’s short-term kinetic energy was not good, and then or continue to trade under pressure.

Fundamental negative factors:

On Friday, US housing starts rose to an annualized total of 1.608 million units in December, the highest since December 2006, and a 16.9 percent monthly rate, the biggest monthly increase since October 2016.

  1. The U.S. economy looks “pretty good” as data showing the labor market is doing reasonably well in the U.S. economy, which is expected to grow 2 percent this year, fed chairman Tom Harker said Friday. Slowing global growth, trade uncertainty, and geopolitical conflicts are holding back business investment.

Us retail sales rose 0.3 percent in December, compared with expectations for a 0.3 percent raise and a 0.2 percent gain, reported on Thursday. Comments pointed to a third straight month of growth in U.S. retail sales.

The number of Americans filing new claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 204,000 last week, compared with 216,000 expected on Thursday, from 214,000. U.S. jobless claims fell for a fifth straight week last week, ending a rally in early December and falling more than expected, suggesting the labor market remains strong despite a recent slowdown in job growth.

The Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index, released on Thursday, rose to 17 in January, well ahead of 0.3 and ahead of expectations of 3.8. Zerohedge, a financial blog, said the explosion in the Philadelphia fed’s manufacturing index reversed the index’s recent collapse.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. Protesters in Libya shut down an oil pipeline over the weekend, threatening to shut down the country’s largest oil field and exacerbating supply disruptions ahead of an international conference urging an end to Libya’s civil war.

2. The University of Michigan’s confidence survey, released on Friday, showed a slight drop to 99.1 from 99.3 in early January. Conditions have improved, but the outlook has slipped.

3. The U.S. Senate on Thursday formally accepted articles of impeachment against President Donald Trump, meaning the senate’s impeachment trial has officially begun. But Monday’s event is just one of many procedural activities ahead of the trial, which is expected to begin on Tuesday.

4. U.S. House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi signed the articles of impeachment against President Trump on Thursday. Articles of impeachment are expected to be “escorted” to the Senate by seven house impeachment managers.

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