In the Asian session on Thursday (December 24), sterling/DOLLAR maintained a rising trend, while the DOLLAR index was under pressure to fall, now at around 90.15. Spot gold continued to pull up short – term, gold is approaching $1,880 an ounce mark. The variation will be coronavirus related news continues to prompt attention, worries about coronavirus variant of the highly infectious, trigger a wave of a travel ban, highlights the people to the new concerns about the economic recovery after a pandemic, the resulting risk aversion to prop up the price of gold, the latest news shows that Britain was also involved in the testing another will be coronavirus variant of the virus, spread it sex is stronger, seems to be a mutated virus mutation was deeper than before. Investors will also be watching developments on Brexit this trading day, with the latest report that British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to make a statement on Brexit at 7pm Hong Kong time on Thursday, which needs to be closely watched.
Gold rose as much as 1% Wednesday on the back of a weaker dollar. Investors are pinning their hopes on the U.S. economic stimulus plan, despite president Donald Trump’s threat not to sign the bailout bill. Spot gold closed Wednesday at $1,872.74 an ounce, up $12.05, or 0.65 percent. Spot gold continued to rise in the short term in Asian trading on Thursday, touching as high as $1, 879.96 an ounce. Gold rose as the dollar slid against a basket of currencies.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called the new $900 billion coronavirus relief plan an inappropriate “disgrace” and urged lawmakers to amend the bill, particularly by increasing direct aid funding from $600 to $2,000. Trump did not threaten to veto the legislation, but he demanded that the administration submit a “proper bill, or the next administration will have to submit a coronavirus rescue plan.”
Ed Mills, an analyst at Raymond James, said: “President Trump’s request to amend the Coronavirus Relief Act to raise individual payments to $2,000 has greatly increased the uncertainty in the coming days, but our base case remains that the bill passed by Congress will become law.”
“Even if Trump refuses to sign the bill, Biden is widely expected to pass it, so we don’t see any downside for gold right now,” said Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah.
Gold, seen as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation, has risen more than 23 per cent this year thanks to massive global stimulus measures.
Jigar Trivedi, commodities analyst at Anand Rathi Shares, a Mumbai broker, said: “The market is hoping that the stimulus package will be passed and that should support gold higher.”
Gold bulls argue that precious metals such as gold will find support amid surging government spending, low bond yields and overvalued stocks.
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “The economic data only reinforces the belief that the economy is slowing, which should help the stimulus talks… Some form of stimulus is highly likely. A slightly weaker dollar is driving gold higher.” Moya said positive progress on the stimulus deal and Brexit was needed to further strengthen the bullish case for gold prices.
Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump vetoed a bipartisan defense authorization bill earlier Wednesday. Analysts said this raised the possibility that the US government could face a shutdown during the COVID-19 pandemic, and could spark fresh turmoil and unrest in Washington. U.S. political uncertainty is good for gold.
The U.S. Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2021 includes several provisions that have upset Trump, such as limiting U.S. troop withdrawal from Germany and renaming military bases named after confederate military commanders, but none of them have upset the U.S. president most. The Wall Street Journal previously reported that Trump had threatened to veto the Defense Authorization bill if it did not include repealing Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act.
With a lot of pandemic-related uncertainty and U.S. fiscal stimulus already priced into the market, gold prices are likely to plateau in the coming weeks and any potential upside will come from new unknown uncertainties, said Michael Langford, director of corporate advisory firm AirGuide.
Kyle Rodda, market analyst at IG, said gold would regain its historical relationship with real yields, which are likely to continue to fall, so if this trend continues there is no reason to think gold will not hit $2,000 next year.
Gold has managed to hit its long-awaited first target price of $1,875.00 an ounce and is attempting to break above that level, opening the way for further gains, according to Economies.com. With the outlook for gold continuing to be bullish, gold is on track to hit its next target price of $1,914.00 an ounce. Gold needs to stay above $1,858.00 an ounce to remain bullish.
Big news on Brexit
In Britain’s exit from the European Union, Britain and the European Union appeared to be on the verge of striking a long-pending trade deal on Wednesday. Sterling has risen above 1.35 to the dollar.
According to Sky News on Wednesday, a British government source said a deal to leave the European Union had been completed. However, the BBC quickly denied the claim, saying the story was untrue and that disputes over fishing rights and commercial competition rules remained key obstacles to a deal and were still being negotiated.
Sterling rose as much as 1.6 percent to 1.3570 on Wednesday, its biggest intraday gain in more than a week, as investors anticipated an imminent post-Brexit trade deal between Britain and the European Union. GBP/USD was near 1.3560 in Intraday trading on Thursday.
On December 23 local time, the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro and the National Computer Science Laboratory announced that scientists from the two institutions have found a novel coronavirus variant after studying the virus carried by COVID-19 patients in Rio de Janeiro. The researchers say it is not yet clear whether the Novel Coronavirus variant found in Rio is the same variant as the one found in the UK.
In an interview with CNBC on December 23, the chief scientist of the World Health Organization, Sumiya Swaminathan, warned that the world must remain vigilant over the next six months. Herd immunity is unlikely to occur until the end of 2021.
At a press conference on December 19 local time, Prime Minister Johnson said that the number of confirmed cases in the UK had soared in the past two weeks thanks to a new variant from novel Coronavirus, which scientists believe is 70 per cent more contagious than the original strain. Mr Johnson said London and the south-east and east of England would rise from the current level three to level four for two weeks from December 20, in line with the widespread “foot restraints” that England introduced in November.
Flights from The UK to Spain, India and Hong Kong have been suspended after the discovery of the novel Coronavirus strain. More than 40 countries around the world have imposed entry bans on the UK. Concerns about the rapid spread of the newly discovered coronavirus strain in the UK have investors looking for a safe haven in gold.
Novel Coronavirus, a mutation first discovered in the UK, may have spread in the US, CDC said on Dec 22. “Given the continuing travel between the UK and the US and the high prevalence of the novel coronavirus in the UK in the current novel coronavirus epidemic, it is highly likely that the mutation has already spread in the US,” CDC said in a statement.
On December 22, local time, WORLD Health Organization (WHO) released relevant information on novel Coronavirus reported in the United Kingdom. On 14 December, the United Kingdom reported to WHO that a new novel Coronavirus variant had been discovered through viral gene sequencing. Preliminary analysis showed that the variant was more likely to spread from person to person, with an estimated 40 to 70 percent increase in infectivity and 0.4 in the transmission index between 1.5 and 1.7.
Who Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebrezek said the UK reported that the mutated virus was more transmissible, but there was no evidence that it was more likely to cause severe illness or death. Who is working with scientists to understand how mutations affect the behaviour of the virus.
“If the new strain does enter the U.S. and reinfects people, it could really cause some additional economic damage, which could be the next positive for gold,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures.