Most Asian markets were closed on Monday and trading was light as crude oil prices opened down 8 percent after a big rally last week and gold prices came under pressure to close to the 1690 mark. This week, the market will usher in a 10 million level of non-farm payrolls report, which may cause the market volatility, while the need to pay attention to the further development of sino-us trade.
Mr Trump said he was confident a vaccine would be available by the end of the year
As of 08:36 Beijing time on May 4, more than 3.56 million covid-19 cases have been confirmed globally, of which 3,563,359 have been confirmed and 248,137 have died, according to real-time data update website worldometers.
Among them, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 1.18 million, with 1,187,804 cases, and the total number of deaths exceeded 68,000, with 68,589 cases.
Already, many U.S. states have begun winding down and returning to work, with 38 states reopening or planning to do so soon.
In the past week, the southeastern state of Georgia became the first in the nation to resume work. On April 27th businesses in Georgia, including barbershops, gyms, cinemas and restaurants, reopened after being closed in nearly six states.
The republican-led senate reconvenes on May 4, while the democratic-controlled house remains closed. The Associated Press reported Sunday that Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell’s decision to bring 100 senators back to the senate will create an image that President Trump wants the U.S. to get back to work, despite continued inadequate testing for the virus and concerns about the outbreak.
White House coronavirus task force coordinator Ellen burks said Sunday she is concerned that large Numbers of americans are not following the warnings that continue to be issued and keeping a safe distance from others to prevent the pandemic from spreading.
Burks told fox news Sunday that the best advice for americans is to continue to “wash your hands often” and “stay at home to avoid the epidemic.” She says it is not safe for thousands of people to gather on California’s Pacific Ocean beaches on a warm Saturday.
She said protests by hundreds of demonstrators against home segregation in some state capitals, such as Lansing, mich., “worried me” because the crowds were packed without masks. “We need to protect each other.”
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that he was confident of a new crown vaccine by the end of the year, faster than even the optimistic projections of his administration’s public health advisers, CNBC reported in its latest report on Monday.
US President Donald trump attends a live broadcast of “America united: back to work” on fox news at the Lincoln memorial in Washington, May 3, local time. The comments were made in an interview with fox news at city hall at the Lincoln memorial in Washington. Public health officials say a coronavirus vaccine can take a year to 18 months. Vaccines often take years to develop and distribute.
Oil prices opened down 8 percent, gold close to 1690 this week focused on 10 million non – agricultural level
Crude prices took a beating at the start of trading on Monday, with U.S. WTI crude falling more than 8 percent to near the key $18 mark, while brent crude fell nearly 3 percent. Even as countries begin to ease containment measures, trade tensions between China and the United States could hamper the economic recovery, and there are fears that the global oil glut could continue.
After three straight weeks of losses, brent crude was up about 23% last week, while U.S. crude was up about 17%. The OPEC + group, which includes OPEC, Russia and other producers, has agreed to cut output by 9.7 million b/d from May 1.
“While the production cuts are significant, they may not be enough in the short term to fully offset the decline in global demand, and the inventory build-up is likely to continue into the second quarter of the decade, albeit at a slower pace,” analysts at ING said in a research note.
Spot gold also came under pressure as oil prices tumbled, briefly approaching the 1690 mark and now hovering just above that level, awaiting further guidance.
“Gold has a lot of room to go higher, to make up for some of last week’s losses,” said Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins. Overall, the outlook for gold remains fairly positive. This is just a blip in the run-up to a new week of higher gold prices. I think gold will continue to move higher.”
Millman did not rule out the possibility that gold could rise to $1,800 in May. “It doesn’t take much to get to $1,800,” he says.
However, the precious metals expert also warned that on the downside, the volatility was much bigger. “Because gold has been above $1,500 for a long time. There are also significant downside risks. I don’t think there is a greater risk of gold falling in May. But if that happens, the range could be much wider, possibly all the way down to about $1,500.”
Millman also noted the seasonal nature of gold. “May is usually a negative month for gold. Under normal circumstances, the gold season tends to plunge in the summer. May is definitely a start.” He said. “In normal times, gold does well in the first and fourth quarters almost every year, but in the medium term I rarely see it go higher unless there is a geopolitical emergency or some kind of financial crisis.”
But this year is clearly not a normal year, Millman said, and seasonal factors could disappear. ‘investors will have to wait and see,’ he added.
Bart Melek, head of global strategy at TD Securities in Toronto, said the reopening of the economy would not have much impact on gold in the short term. “In the short term, gold will move in a range, probably towards the lower end of the trading range, which is probably a little bit lower than where we are now,” he said. We expect gold to find support around $1,650. I don’t think we’ll go any lower… The second quarter could be tough for gold. At least early on, it’s going to be hard for gold to break above that.”
“This week, attention will turn to the scale of the damage caused by the blockade,” said strategists at ING on Friday. Most important is the release of unemployment data this week. “Our team expects the April non-farm payrolls report to eliminate 21 million jobs, causing the unemployment rate to surge to 16 percent, and the may report to potentially eliminate 12 million more jobs, bringing the unemployment rate to 22 percent.”
On Friday, the biggest economic report will be the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for April, which covers the entire U.S. lockdown period and highlights the impact on the economy, especially considering more than 30 million americans have applied for unemployment benefits in the past six weeks.
The U.S. non-farm payrolls report is due on Friday, May 8 at 20:30 Beijing time, and media surveys now show the U.S. economy will shed 22 million jobs in April, the unemployment rate will surge to 16 percent in April, and the average hourly wage rate is expected to fall to 0.3 percent from 0.4 percent.
Wells Fargo securities said it was unclear how the U.S. economy would perform in May after a sharp downturn in March and April, but that the gradual lifting of the blockade should translate into a U.S. recovery unless public health issues erupt again.
The bank expects the May 8 nonfarm report to show the economy lost 20 million jobs in the April quarter. Preliminary data suggested that 26.5 million Americans had lost their jobs in the five weeks since the march nonfarm survey.