Monday (April 13) sub-city, oil price volatility became the focus of the market. Oil prices jumped in the early hours of trading after the OPEC + oil cartel reached a historic agreement to cut output, but soon gave up gains and fell. In the gold market, spot gold rose above $1,690 an ounce in early trading before falling back to around $1,685. Investors are bracing for a slew of important economic data this week, with U.S. retail sales, known as the ‘scare number,’ the most closely watched. If the economic data is weak, the resulting risk aversion could spur further gains. In terms of global epidemic, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 1.85 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 110,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 560,000 and the cumulative death toll exceeded 20,000.
Oil prices on ‘roller coaster’ as OPEC + agree to historic production cuts
The organization of petroleum exporting countries and its oil-producing Allies reached a historic agreement on Sunday to cut crude production by 9.7 million barrels a day. This is the largest production cut in history. WTI crude futures jumped 8 percent at the open on the news, briefly breaking above $24 a barrel. Brent crude futures were up more than 5 percent at the open, touching as high as $33.99 a barrel.
The statement of the opec-plus-supply agreement said it would cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day for two months from May 1, 2020. It will cut output by 7.7 million b/d by July 1, 2020 and December. Planned output cuts of 5.8 million b/d from January 2021 to April 2022; Production will be cut from the October 2018 benchmark, with Saudi Arabia and Russia both expected to cut at 11 million BPD.
The agreement will expire on April 30, 2022, but an extension will be evaluated in December 2021, the statement said. OPEC will hold a video conference on June 10, 2020 to determine further action to balance the oil market.
“Today’s meeting is in many ways a historic meeting,” said OPEC secretary general balkin. “the covid-19 outbreak has led to a decline in the global economy and oil demand that requires a quick and decisive response from OPEC and non-opec producers.”
The White House said in a statement that President trump spoke with Russian President vladimir putin and Saudi crown prince bin salman about the agreement. In the call, President trump said he “welcomed” the deal.
Oil prices quickly reversed course. WTI crude futures fell as much as 3 percent to $22.20 a barrel. Brent crude futures also fell to $31.67 a barrel.
However, the decline in oil prices did not last long. Subsession, international oil prices continued to recover, WTI crude futures extended gains to 7%, brent crude futures up more than 3.5%.
Ed Morse, citigroup’s global head of commodities, said the cuts would have a significant impact in the second half of the year and push oil prices to around $40 by the end of the year, but there would be pain in the short term as markets rebalance.
Despite the record cut, some fear it will not be enough to offset the drop in demand.
Chris Midgely, Global head of analysis at S&P Global Platts, said the production cuts would not be enough “to make up for the market’s near-term supply imbalance of 15 to 20 million barrels per day and not be enough to prevent may’s glut.” Unless OPEC takes further action, he added, a cut “will not be sufficient to provide sustainable, resilient support for oil prices.”
Goldman sachs, a prominent investment bank, said in a commentary that the OPEC + deal was historic but insufficient. Oil prices are expected to fall further in coming weeks as OPEC+ crude supplies are expected to drop 4.3 million b/d from first quarter production.
Sunday’s emergency meeting was the second in four days. As the outbreak of the coronavirus continues to hit demand, oil producers are scrambling to strike deals to support falling oil prices. The deal also ended a price war that broke out in early march between Saudi Arabia and Russia. The price war has further depressed oil prices as both sides seek to gain market share.
OPEC + initially proposed a cut of 10m b/d, or about 10 per cent of the world’s oil supply, on Thursday, but Mexico blocked a final deal by opposing the cut.
Energy ministers from the group of 20 leading economies met on Friday and agreed on the need to stabilise markets, but did not discuss specific production figures.
Heavy data hits gold price target at 1700
Spot gold briefly breached the $1,690 / oz mark in early Asian trading, before falling back to around $1,685 / oz. Investors will be watching the outbreak unfold and the performance of economic data.
U.S. retail sales data for march, known as the “terror number,” and initial jobless claims for the week ended April 11 will be released this week. In addition, more clues about how the pandemic is affecting the world will be revealed this week.
On the Chinese side, although the imported epidemic cannot be ignored, the domestic epidemic has been effectively controlled and China has gradually returned to a normal state of production and life. This week China will release first-quarter GDP, march industrial production, urban fixed asset investment and retail sales.
U.S. retail sales will be key this week as the market sees for the first time the impact of a novel coronavirus shutdown on the retail sector. The march data are due Wednesday. U.S. retail sales are expected to fall 8 percent in March.
“The danger now is that we could see more of a w-shaped recovery than a v-shaped recovery,” said Bart Melek, head of global strategy at td securities. In terms of a pandemic, we are certainly not out of the woods. We’re still going to get some negative data.”
Kieran Clancy, assistant commodities economist at capital economics, said: “in terms of virus Numbers, many countries are a long way from their peak. This uncertainty will continue to be positive for gold.”
The gold market has looked strong this month, and many analysts expect prices to continue rising in the second, third and fourth quarters.
Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, expects gold to average $1,750 in the second quarter, $1,850 in the third and $2,000 in the fourth.
“The fed’s tools are pretty limited and it looks like it’s going to let inflation continue, which is a big thing for gold in the long run,” Streible said. The fed says it is not worried about inflation. That really opened the floodgates for gold. I think gold will look better in the next few quarters.”
Standard chartered bank analyst Suki Cooper also expects further gains in the short term, forecasting an average of $1,725 in the second quarter.
As for gold this week, nearly 70 percent of traders and analysts surveyed in the weekly FX168 financial markets survey are bullish on the metal and about 30 percent are bearish.
Atomic asset management (Hong Kong) co., LTD., founder and fund manager is expected to rise further, gold this week on Monday because of last week, the dollar index fell back support gold prices rebound again, technical line form the potential of the return of the king zhou, has again hit 1700 desire, ETF realize net inflows last week also conducive to overdo to raise high, can follow every complete more ideas this week.
The cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 1.85 million
According to the latest statistics, the global total number of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 1.85 million, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 110,000. The cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 560,000 and the cumulative death toll exceeded 20,000.
Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 9:54 PM Beijing time on April 13, the global covid-19 cumulative confirmed cases of more than 1.85 million, reached 1853, 155 cases, the cumulative number of deaths reached 114,247 cases. The United States has the world’s largest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases, with more than 560,000 cases and 560,433 cases. The cumulative number of deaths in the United States has exceeded 20,000, to 22,115.
US President Donald trump on April 11 declared Wyoming a “state of major disaster” for the new outbreak. For the first time in U.S. history, all 50 states, Washington, d.c. and four overseas territories — the U.S. virgin islands, northern mariana islands, Guam and Puerto Rico — are in a “major state of disaster.”
Being granted a “major disaster status” would receive federal aid and allow local governments to exercise emergency powers to protect lives, property and public health after a disaster.
US President Donald trump said on April 10 that the number of people expected to die from novel coronavirus would be “significantly lower” than a previous estimate of 100,000.
Trump said on April 11 that he would begin rebuilding the United States to honor those who died of COVID 19. Asked when the us could restart, Mr Trump said: “this is going to be the toughest decision I’ve ever made. I want to make the right decision. I make my decisions based on the advice of many smart people, professionals, doctors and business leaders.”
Other major overseas countries, Spain COVID – 19 accumulative total of 166831 cases of the patients, Italy has confirmed 156363 cases, confirmed 132591 cases of France, and Germany has confirmed 127854 cases, the diagnosis of 84279 cases, Iran has confirmed 71686 cases, Turkey has confirmed 56956 cases, Belgium has confirmed 29647 cases, the Netherlands confirmed 25587 cases, Switzerland has confirmed 25415 cases, Canada has confirmed 24292 cases.
On Sunday, the British government announced that prime minister Boris Johnson had been discharged from the hospital but would not return to work immediately. A downing street statement said Mr. Johnson would continue his recovery at the prime minister’s official country house in chequers. “On the advice of his medical team, the prime minister will not resume work immediately,” it said. He would like to thank everyone at st. Thomas’ hospital for the excellent care they gave.”