With the global number of confirmed COVID 19 cases nearing an outbreak and the cumulative number of confirmed cases in the United States exceeding 200,000, U.S. President Donald trump has issued a pessimistic warning that it will be a “very scary few weeks” for the outbreak of COVID 19 in the United States from April 2. Stocks started the second quarter of the year with a sharp drop as evidence mounted that the epidemic was pushing the global economy into a deep recession. Us stocks again 1000 – point plunge. On Thursday, investors are on high alert for the week’s blockbuster economic data — U.S. jobless claims, the most pessimistic forecast at 6.5 million, that could cause wild swings.
Global anti-epidemic! The WHO warned that more than one million cases could be confirmed in the coming days
At present, the global epidemic situation is increasingly severe. Real-time statistics from Worldometer world show that by around 07:30 Beijing time on April 2, the global cumulative number of confirmed COVID -19 patients exceeded 930,000, reaching 934,342, and the death toll exceeded 47,000, reaching 47,174.
With mounting evidence that the epidemic is pushing the global economy into a deep recession, risk sentiment appears to be heading back to the freezing point.
In the past five weeks, there has been a near explosive increase in confirmed cases, with almost all countries and regions reporting confirmed cases, who director general tan tak seh said April 1. The number of deaths has more than doubled in the past week, and in the next few days more than a million cases will be confirmed and more than 50,000 deaths expected.
In the United States, according to the global COVID 19 data real-time statistical system released by Johns Hopkins university, as of 6 p.m. Edt on April 1, a total of 209,071 confirmed COVID 19 cases, 4,757 deaths and 8,434 cures were reported nationwide. In the past 24 hours, 24,888 new cases were confirmed and 947 new deaths were reported. The United States now has 2.5 times as many confirmed cases and more deaths than China.
New York state, the worst-hit state in the us, has 83,712 confirmed cases and 1941 deaths. A total of 7650 new cases and 248 new deaths were confirmed on Monday. New York state has more confirmed cases than China.
New York governor Andrew cuomo announced on March 31 that the state has added about 9,000 new cases of COVID 19, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 75,795. Nearly half of the 18,000 novel coronavirus nucleic acid tests performed in the state in the past 24 hours, or about 9,000, tested positive, according to comer.
US President Donald trump urged the public to comply with the government’s directive on COVID 19, warning that the next two weeks will be “very painful” and “I hope americans are prepared for the tough days ahead.”
Trump said Monday he wants to give governors the flexibility to make decisions about whether home segregation is the state’s best option. But he said he was considering restricting air and rail travel between affected areas in the United States.
The White House released a new estimate on March 31 that estimated 100,000 to 240,000 americans would die from COVID 19, even if current guidelines for social segregation were maintained.
Today at the beginning of the number of fear extraordinary: the most pessimistic for 6.5 million!
The grim situation is further weighing on U.S. stocks. Global markets generally fell in April as the year went dark. U.S. stocks fell across the board overnight, with all three indexes down more than 4 percent. The dow closed down nearly 1,000 points, or 4.44%, the nasdaq fell 4.41% and the s&p 500 fell 4.41%.
Boeing and American express both fell more than 7.5 percent, leading declines in the dow Jones industrial average. Real estate investments, utilities, energy and financials led declines in the s&p 500, with each sector falling at least 5 percent.
On the data front, small U.S. nonfarm payrolls fell 27,000 in March, the lowest level since January 2010, April 1 showed. The expected decrease of 150,000 was revised to an increase of 179,000.
In addition, the march Markit manufacturing PMI released on April 1 in the United States came in at 48.5, compared with expectations of 48, and the previous reading was 49.2, the lowest since August 2009. Markit said its manufacturing PMI and new orders index both hit their lowest levels since August 2009.
Economic data failed to lift sentiment. Fund managers focused on comments from Mr Trump and governor Andrew cuomo of New York, the state hardest hit by the outbreak.
“The comments from President trump and cuomo suggest things are going to get worse before they get better, and investors are starting to realize that the outbreak is taking longer than they thought,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer of the Independent Advisor Alliance.
“Because of that, the bear market is going to last longer,” he said. “the longer people stay at home, the longer it will take to restart economic activity and the longer it will take for corporate earnings to recover.”
Masahiko Loo, an investment manager at Alliance Bernstein in Tokyo, said: “in my view, the market is still not fully pricing in the devastating impact of the new pandemic, and some people are still talking about a v-shaped rebound. The United States and Europe are now experiencing the first wave of attacks, but as in Asia, there may be later waves of imported cases. The human psyche will not recover quickly after an outbreak.”
On Thursday, U.S. jobless claims for the week ended March 28 are expected to hit a record high for the second straight week after surging 3.28 million in the previous week, with the most pessimistic forecasts suggesting the number will double.
The market is paying more attention to claims for unemployment benefits than to the non-farm payrolls data because it is a more timely indication of the impact of novel coronavirus and social containment measures in the United States and Europe on the labor market, with the median forecast of 3.5 million.
Kathy Lien, managing director at BK asset management, wrote that in many ways Thursday’s claims report will be more telling and more market-moving. The current forecast is 3.5 million, which sounds good, but the potential number could be much worse. Between March 23 and March 28, the agency received more than 8.2 million calls, compared with 50,000 in a normal week, according to the state labor department. Of course, many of these calls are redundant, but with so many requests coming from just one state, we can only imagine how many people will be filing for unemployment benefits nationwide. Thursday could be a bad day for the dollar.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits may have climbed to a seasonally adjusted 3.5 million in the week ended March 28, according to a Reuters poll of economists. The highest estimate in the survey was 5.25 million. That would be an increase of 220,000 from 3.28 million a week earlier, reflecting an increase in the number of newly unemployed people and a rush by states to fill in previously filed applications that were too big to be recorded in the system. Last week, more states implemented “stay home” policies.
Wells Fargo economist Sam Bullard said in a report that the data “may reflect newly unemployed workers and previous claims that states have not had time to record in the system due to strong demand.” He put the figure at 3.15 million.
Thomas Costerg of Bandque Pictet&Cie was the most pessimistic at 6.5 million, with Goldman sachs forecasting 5.25 million and citigroup forecasting 4 million.
Investment bank Goldman sachs further slashed its second-quarter U.S. economic forecast on March 31, forecasting a 34 percent quarter-on-quarter decline in gross domestic product and a rise in unemployment to 15 percent by mid-2020.
“I expect over the next few years, we’re going to have the worst bear market I’ve ever seen,” Rogers, a prominent investor, said in a telephone interview.
Mr Rogers says the current market rally is likely to continue for some time after extreme pessimism, but another crash is imminent. This is due to a triple whammy of novel coronavirus outbreaks causing economic losses, high debt levels and low interest rates.
Today’s data will also be an important guide to gold. Gold staged a rally on April 1, but the rally stalled near the 1600 level, which it could return to if today’s jobless claims data deteriorate.
‘gold didn’t do as well as investors expected for its safe-haven assets,’ said Ryan McKay, commodities strategist at TD Securities.
Mike McGlone, the senior market analyst at BI, said in a recent report that the performance of the gold market is very similar to what happened during the 2008 financial crisis. In the light of the 2008 financial crisis, “recovery” would mean a new high for gold. “At the time, $1,000 an ounce was a significant level. Today, it’s $1,900.”