Outbreak to be controlled by end of April? The virus may not originate in China, return to work peak problem! Zhong Nanshan’s latest response

Zhong nanshan, head of the high-level expert group of the national health and fitness commission and an academician of the Chinese academy of engineering, said on Wednesday (February 26) that based on his team’s traditional model, the peak should be predicted in mid-february towards the end of February after the elimination of strong state intervention and the post-spring travel peak, according to south Plus. On February 15, the Numbers came down. We are closer to the predictions of foreign authorities. We are confident of basic control by the end of April.

Zhong said there was a large outbreak in wuhan, but in other cities, it was not a large outbreak. This is very different from previous highly infectious outbreaks. It seems to us that one person can spread it between two or three people, which means it spreads quickly. Severe cases are more contagious.

Zhong nanshan also said that a large number of suspected patients in wuhan, the imminent diagnosis. In the United States, where a large number of flu patients have also died, we have accelerated development and clinical validation. It is important to identify the new coronavirus and influenza in a short period of time. The second is to consider how to make a better diagnosis, in addition to nucleic acid testing, he also do IgM antibodies, suspected patients for IgM is a good auxiliary means.

For the hospital to return to check nucleic acid positive, zhong nanshan pointed out that the cure patients will not generally appear the scene of reinfection. If enough antibodies are present, the patient will not be infected. That’s the rule, and it remains to be seen whether it will infect anyone else if there’s a residue in its gut.

In terms of prevention, zhong nanshan pointed out that a number of treatment programs have also been organized. Some of the most important treatments are those where the virus can metastasize in 5 to 7, 8 days, not more than 10 days.

According to CCTV news, zhong nanshan said he would give a video presentation to the European respiratory society this weekend on China’s experience.

“The problem now is that the increase in cases in China has been less than the increase in cases abroad,” Zhong said. Abroad, notably South Korea, Iran and Italy, some of China’s actions may be instructive. So I will be invited to give a video presentation to the European respiratory society this weekend. This is a human disease, not a national disease. So drugs with clinical trials from guangzhou and Harvard and the University of Toronto have arrived. We are also grateful to businesses, including Evergrande, for helping to connect with Harvard.”

In terms of treatment drugs, Zhong Nanshan said preliminary observation of chloroquine treatment effect is better but remains to be seen. Zhong Nanshan said: “the enemy of the day, using the existing safe drugs is completely right, blank control in medical ethics is not justified. In these drug regimens, we are initially seeing better results with chloroquine, but it remains to be seen. Carefully controlled trials will follow.”

Zhong Nanshan also pointed out that the outbreak first appeared in China, not necessarily in China. ‘for the forecast of the epidemic, we first consider China, not foreign countries,’ Mr. Zhong said. ‘now there are some situations abroad. The outbreak first appeared in China, not necessarily originated in China.’

Zhong also suggested that countries with a rapidly growing epidemic should take China’s handling methods and experience as a reference and isolate them as soon as possible.

In addition, Zhong Nanshan pointed out that the peak of return flow is now resumed. Before, our prediction model was that another peak would appear after the return flow. Now, it is 27th, and we have not predicted the peak yet.

Zhong Nanshan also proposed two Suggestions for the resumption of work: the resumption of work personnel to accept nucleic acid and ICM double detection; The factory pays attention to the sanitation and patency of faucets and sewers.

Zhong said there was no evidence of the virus spreading through the digestive tract, so respiratory protection was needed.

In the end, Zhong Nanshan said, it is still unclear how the new coronavirus came from, whether it existed before we do not know, the intermediate host should not only pangolins. We’ve had three coronavirus infections in this century, so any coronavirus infection that we find, any aggregation that we see, needs to be dealt with very strictly.

In terms of epidemic situation, from 0 to 24:00 on February 26, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) and the Xinjiang production and construction corps reported 433 new confirmed cases, 29 new deaths (26 in Hubei, one in Beijing, one in Heilongjiang and one in Henan), and 508 new suspected cases, according to the latest bulletin of the national health and fitness commission. On the same day, 2,750 new cases were cured and discharged from hospital, 12,823 close contacts were released from medical observation, and 406 severe cases were reduced.

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