Spot gold remained in a volatile range in early Asian trading on Monday, trading near $1,900 an ounce and hitting an intraday high of $1,902.87 an ounce. Gold took a hit last week as the dollar strengthened and hopes of a US bail-out bill faded ahead of the election. Spot gold on Friday reversed three sessions of losses and stayed above $1,900 for most of the day. Spot gold broke $1,910 twice and hit a session high of $1,913.82 just before U.S. trade, but then reversed course and late in the session, losing the 1900 mark to close at $1,898.33. Last week, spot gold closed down 1.60 percent.
In terms of macroeconomic data, investors should focus today on China’s upcoming third-quarter GDP figures. According to IMF projections, China will achieve rapid growth of more than 8 per cent in 2021, narrowing the gap with the size of the US economy. According to the report, China quickly brought the epidemic under control and its economy grew at 3.2 percent in the second quarter of this year, significantly narrowing the gap in economic size compared with the United States, where gross domestic product fell at an annual rate of more than 30 percent in the quarter.
Central bank dynamic aspects, several of the central bank will be a speech this week, and Monday with the blockbuster: Beijing time 8 PM tonight, colin Powell, chairman of the federal reserve at the international monetary fund (IMF) annual meeting on the future of cross-border payments and digital currency speeches, European central bank President, on the same lagarde opening in a campaign. In addition to Chairman Powell, the fed’s “number two” and “number three” will appear in succession: At 21:00 PM, the Fed’s “number three” Williams delivered the opening and closing remarks for the New York Fed webinar. 23:45 federal Reserve Vice Chairman Larry Clarida delivered a speech on the economic outlook.
And at 2 a.m. Thursday, the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book of economic conditions. As the stimulus bill drags on, some new developments in the Fed’s monetary policy are also worth watching.
This week brings the final presidential debate
Donald Trump and Joe Biden will hold their final presidential debate at 9:00 am On Friday. On 17 October, the United States Commission on Presidential Debates announced that six final debate topics had been finalized, including “Novel Coronavirus,” “American Family,” “Race in America,” “Climate Change,” “National Security,” and “Leadership.”
According to the NBC report, a source close to the committee said that while no final decision had been made to change the debate rules, they were considering cutting off a candidate’s microphone if he broke them.
Ing notes that Biden’s lead in the polls has narrowed over the past week, making the final presidential debate crucial this week, and that any narrowing could be seen as negative by risk markets, which are pricing in a Democratic White House.
The direction of gold prices could be determined by THE US index ahead of the US bailout bill
James Hyerczyk, an analyst at Fxempire in New York, said Friday’s trading showed gold’s move was largely determined by the dollar index ahead of the next stimulus bill. He noted that the dollar could continue to rise in the near term as long as people worry about the election results. In addition, the increase in the number of novel Coronavirus infections and their potential impact on economic recovery will also be a factor driving the dollar higher and putting pressure on dollar-denominated gold.
The recent outbreak in Europe and the United States is not encouraging. A group infection in the French Senate, with several members confirmed; Frank-walter Steinmeier, Germany’s President, put himself in self-quarantine after his personal bodyguard tested positive for the coronavirus. Austria had its biggest single day of new cases since the outbreak; The Swiss government has announced a nationwide mandatory wearing of face masks. The World Health Organization’s Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove says 80 percent of European countries have seen an increase in coVID-19 cases.
In addition, according to CNN, Johns Hopkins university, according to statistics, at least 10 states on October 16, reports the new highest single crown since the outbreak of the new number of confirmed cases, many experts have repeatedly warned recently in the United States, the United States in the current outbreak level into the cold of winter, “grim”.
Hyerczyk noted that the pressure for elections will be removed after November 3, but that a second wave of the epidemic will continue to raise concerns about economic recovery. Only with a fiscal stimulus bill will such fears be dispelled.
As for gold’s direction, Hyerczyk thinks the metal will likely remain under pressure until a fiscal stimulus agreement is reached, but will not collapse because of long-term investors. Meanwhile, as long as investors continue to pour money into the safe-haven dollar, gold’s gains are likely to be limited.
In a Kitco News gold survey released Friday, most Wall Street analysts and retail investors expect gold prices to move higher this week. However, sentiment is subdued as no one expects prices to break out of their current range any time soon. Last week, 16 analysts responded to the survey. A total of 10 analysts, or 63%, expect gold to rise; Two analysts (13 per cent) expect gold to fall this week; Four analysts (25%) said they expected prices to move sideways. While retail investors remain bullish, investor appetite for gold continues to wane as the price hovers around $1,900 an ounce. Participation in Kitco News’ weekly online survey has fallen to its lowest level since early May. A total of 1,076 people voted last week. Of those, 616, or 57%, said they expect gold to rise this week. A further 225 (21%) were bearish, while 235 (22%) were neutral.
George Gero, managing director of RBC Wealth Management in Toronto, said that while he is bullish on gold, concerns are growing that the U.S. and global economies could slip into a deeper recession, which could limit the metal’s gains. “Gold may go higher but you see more volatility as the news moves back and forth,” he said.
Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group in New York, said he remains bullish on gold as it has successfully rebounded from support at its 100-day moving average. “Gold has not closed below its 100-day moving average and as long as you can hold it, you need to be long,” he said. Nedoss added that the dollar also appeared to be facing some resistance and could face some technical selling pressure in the short term.
Adrian Day, President and CEO of Adrian Day Asset Management, said he agrees that technical forces in the market are strong as gold prices have been hitting higher lows and highs over the past three weeks. However, he added that gold continued to provide good support in an environment of heightened political uncertainty ahead of the November 3 election. “We are unlikely to see a big drop in gold prices before the US election. There is too much buying power on the sidelines and eventually it will come in.
Darin Newsom, President of Darin Newsom Analytics, says he is using Benjamin Franklin’s Third technical analysis rule to monitor gold. He said. “We’ve seen a three-week uptrend in gold prices and now it looks like the market is about to turn. “If you look at the daily price movements, absolutely nothing has changed, so I think gold is ready for a crash.”