Risk sentiment was cautiously upbeat in Asian trading on Monday, with investors focusing on hopes of countries restarting their economies despite a rise in new cases in some regions.
In the market and the reality of the economy facing a huge divergence, spot silver to maintain a narrow range shock pattern, currently trading around $15.55, repeatedly tested the key average level of 60.
Statistics from real-time data update website worldometers show that as of 11:35 PM on May 11, Beijing time, the global total number of confirmed covid-19 cases exceeded 4.18 million, with a total of 4,180,922 confirmed cases and 283,868 deaths exceeding 280,000.
Among them, the total number of confirmed covid-19 cases in the United States has exceeded 1.36 million, or 1,367,638, and the total number of deaths has exceeded 80,000, or 80,787.
Underscoring the economic and human tragedy caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic, U.S. nonfarm payrolls plunged a staggering 20.5 million in April on Friday, the biggest drop since the great depression.
International monetary fund managing director Elena georgieva on Friday hinted at a possible downgrade of global economic forecasts and warned that a renewed trade war between the United States and China could hit the recovery.
Speaking at an online event at university college Europe, she said the latest figures for many countries were already lower than the group’s pessimistic forecast of a 3 per cent contraction in the global economy by 2020.
“Without an immediate medical solution, unfortunately for some economies, there could be a more adverse scenario,” georgieva said. She added, “the unknown behavior of this virus is clouding the forecast.”
The IMF forecast in April that the global economy would contract by 3.0 per cent, making it the worst recession since the great depression of the 1930s. But it predicts a partial rebound by 2021, but the outcome could also be worse, depending on how health events unfold.
Ms georgieva warned that a retreat into protectionism could undermine prospects for a recovery in the global economy at a crucial moment.
She said reviving world trade is crucial to ensuring a global economic recovery. “Otherwise, costs will go up, revenues will go down, and our world will become less safe,” she added.
She says if global trade changes, so does the economic outlook.
Georgieva said the international monetary fund has provided $18 billion in emergency funds to 50 of the 103 countries that have requested assistance. In addition, the fund has suspended debt payments for 25 of the poorest countries.
On the daily chart, the dollar index bottomed out on Friday and rebounded after briefly touching 99.45, now trading around 99.70. From a technical perspective, MACD green kinetic energy column weakened nearly disappeared, RSI index hovering around 50, KDJ random index at the 50 level in a narrow range shock, suggesting or continue consolidation.
As can be seen from the 4-hour chart, the usd index continues the trend of a 100.40 pullback from its peak and is now trading in a narrow range just above its 50-period moving average, with a focus on the 100-period moving average. The MACD green kinetic energy column stabilizes, the KDJ random indicator tries to rebound from around the overbought level, and the short term is still under downward pressure.
On the daily chart, silver after two consecutive days of gains to maintain a high consolidation, currently trying to break through the 60 average 15.50 level, focus on whether the closing can stand on this average. MACD red kinetic energy column preliminary appear, KDJ random index rebounded upward, focus on the possibility of further rise.
On the 4-hour chart, silver prices have risen particularly fast and are now above all averages, wary of a pullback. The MACD red kinetic energy column weakened slightly, and the KDJ random index hit the overbought level upward, suggesting the short term may be lower.
Fundamental positive factors:
- According to statistics from real-time information data update website worldometers, as of 11:35 Beijing time on May 11, the global total number of confirmed covid-19 cases exceeded 4.18 million, with a total of 4,180,922 confirmed cases and 283,868 deaths exceeding 280,000.
2, May 10, integrated media reports, the White House will be coronavirus pneumonia outbreak response three members of the working group, director of the national institute of allergy and infectious diseases Fauci (Anthony Fauci, director of the CDC reed field (Robert Redfield) and the United States food and drug supervision bureau of Hahn (Stephen Hahn) because the contact will be coronavirus infection and isolation.
Non-farm payrolls fell 20.5 million in April, the labor department said on Friday, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.7 percent, the highest since the early 1930s.
- Larry Kudlow, director of the White House national economic council, told reporters Friday that the White House has stopped negotiating with Congress on any further stimulus package to combat the pandemic and is waiting to see the economic impact of the reopening of U.S. states this month.
Fundamental negative factors:
- Senior trade representatives from the United States and China played down serious differences over economic losses caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic and said they would press ahead with the implementation of the “first phase” trade agreement after the call.
- President Trump and vice president pence tested negative for novel coronavirus, a White House spokesman said Thursday.
- US President Donald trump tweeted that the White House covid-19 response task force would work indefinitely, but with a new focus on security and restarting the economy.
- House Democrats are pushing through a sweeping fifth round of novel coronavirus rescue legislation in what could be their most far-reaching effort yet to deal with the economic impact of a pandemic, with a trillion-dollar stimulus package in the works. The cost of the plan could match or exceed the $2.2 trillion CARES act passed in March.