Silver Investment: The Conflict between China and India has not yet turned into a large-scale armed conflict! Silver bears home! Be careful about the situation!

Silver was trading at $17.360 an ounce in early Asian trading on Wednesday. Day silver launched a volatile retracement, the current decline extended to 0.43%, short temporarily dominated.

Earlier, the Indian military said 20 of its soldiers had been killed in border clashes with Chinese troops, Reuters and the Associated Press quoted a military statement as saying. It was the first deadly border clash between the two countries in 53 years.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said India had crossed the border twice on Monday, provoking and attacking Chinese personnel, leading to serious physical clashes between the two sides’ border forces, AFP reported.

Analysts say a wider armed conflict between India and China is unlikely, despite a recent escalation of border clashes in the Himalayas that has resulted in the first casualties in more than 40 years, CNBC reported.

India’s foreign ministry said there had been a “violent confrontation” at the border of the Galvan Valley in Ladakh on Monday night. Soldiers from both sides have been facing off there since last month. Senior military officers from both sides met on June 6th in an effort to defuse the situation.

“Late at night on 15 June 2020, there was a violent confrontation as the Chinese tried to unilaterally change the status quo there. There have been casualties on both sides that could have been avoided if China had stuck to the high-level agreement, “said Anurag Srivastava, an official spokesman for India’s Foreign ministry.

The Indian military said in a statement that 20 soldiers had been killed and that the two armies had now disengaged.

Kelsey Broderick, a China analyst at consulting firm Eurasia Group, said in a report that it will be more difficult to push through previously agreed de-escalation measures as both sides accuse the other of violating the June 6 agreement.

“The fact that the events of June 15, despite the loss of life, did not evolve into a larger conflict is a positive sign that the top brass on both sides are not interested in provoking any kind of war,” Broderick said.

However, analysts expect future border clashes could still turn into a larger armed conflict, especially if thousands of soldiers continue to face off along the disputed border.

“Leaving aside the risk of miscalculation, we don’t think there is much appetite for beating the drum,” Miha Hribernik, Head of Asia risk analysis at Verisk Maplecroft, wrote in a report.

The next step is to keep an eye on the geopolitical situation. With tensions rising between China and India, North and South Korea, and the United States and China, investors need to watch out for renewed panic that could trigger a major sell-off.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the DOLLAR index settled in a narrow, volatile range from its lows and is now trying to rally. The daily chart MACD red momentum column is looming, KDJ random index higher, indicating the dollar rally momentum to restart, the next rally from low.

On the 4-hour chart, the DOLLAR index also presents a consolidation pattern, with the MACD red kinetic energy column unchanged and the KDJ random index biased higher, indicating that the DOLLAR may continue to consolidate in the short term.

silver

Daily chart, silver prices under pressure and narrow pressure trading range, fell below the 20 – day average. The MACD green momentum column held steady, while the KDJ random index was slightly flat, indicating that silver still has downward momentum and may continue to come under pressure.

On the 4-hour chart, silver staged a moderate small rebound, MACD red kinetic energy column unchanged, KDJ random index turned lower, indicating that gold short-term momentum mixed, the next rebound momentum may be unstable.

Fundamentals positive factors:

  1. According to statistics from Worldometers, as of June 17, Beijing time, there have been over 8.25 million confirmed cases and over 440,000 deaths of COVID-19 worldwide. In the United States, there have been more than 2.2 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 and more than 119,000 deaths.
  2. The National Health Commission (NHFPC) confirmed 44 new cases Wednesday, including 11 imported cases (10 in Gansu and 1 in Sichuan) and 33 local cases (31 in Beijing, 1 in Hebei and 1 in Zhejiang). No new deaths; Three new suspected cases, all local (all in Beijing).
  3. The Indian military said on Tuesday that 20 of its soldiers had been killed in border clashes with Chinese troops, Reuters and the Associated Press quoted a military statement as saying. It was the first deadly border clash between the two countries in 53 years. In addition to the 3 Indian soldiers who were killed earlier, 17 Indian soldiers later confirmed that they died of their injuries, according to a statement released by the Indian military on Monday. According to hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of global Times, on his latest weibo post, late last night Beijing time, the Indian military said 17 more Indian soldiers had died in physical clashes in the Galawan Valley due to exposure to sub-zero altitude, raising the death toll from three to 20. The incident caused a strong reaction in Indian public opinion.
  4. South Korea’s Blue House said Tuesday that North Korea would respond harshly if tensions continue to rise following the bombing of the Inter-Korean liaison office in the border city of Kaesong. On Monday local time, South Korean President Moon Jae-in requested the dispatch of a special mission composed of Chung Eui-yong, head of the National Security Office, and Hsu Hoon, head of the National Intelligence Service, kCNA reported Wednesday. But the DPRK refused to accept the proposal. It also reported that the spokesman of the General Staff of the Korean People’s Army issued a statement on the same day, clarifying the DPRK’s upcoming military action plan.

Fundamentals negative factors:

  1. Preliminary clinical trials in the United Kingdom have shown that dexamethasone can save the lives of critically ill patients with COVID-19, reducing deaths by about a third in those on ventilators and by about a fifth in those on oxygen alone, the WORLD Health Organization (WHO) said Monday. The improvement of dexamethasone was observed only in severe patients and not in mild patients, the study noted.
  2. On Tuesday, retail sales in the United States rose 17.7 percent in May, a record high. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 7.7% increase. U.S. President Donald Trump praised the strong data, adding, “It’s a big day for the stock market and jobs!”
  3. The US government confirmed on Monday (June 15) that it would revise a ban on US companies doing business with Huawei to allow them to work together on standards for next-generation 5G networks. U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross confirmed reports that his department is about to take action. The Commerce Department and other government agencies signed off on the rule change and are awaiting publication in the Federal Register as early as Tuesday, according to people familiar with the matter.
  4. Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and France have agreed to pay 750 million euros ($843.2 million) for 300 million doses of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, an Italian health ministry spokesman said. Japan’s ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare reportedly said these countries would have the opportunity to buy another 100m doses of vaccine. Italy will pay 185 million euros for 75 million doses of the vaccine developed by Oxford University.

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