Global markets appeared to welcome a new trading month with optimism on Wednesday, with Asian shares mostly higher as new cases continued to surge but the US economy showed signs of recovery.
Silver, which surged nearly 2 per cent yesterday to break through the key $18 barrier, has enjoyed a brisk physical rally on the back of this resurgent trade and was trading near $18.30 in Asia on Wednesday after climbing again.
As for coVID-19, according to real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 07:33 Beijing time on July 1, the cumulative number of confirmed coVID-19 cases worldwide has exceeded 10.43 million, with 10,434,835 confirmed cases and 509,779 deaths so far.
In the United States, there were nearly 2.63 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, or 2,629,372, and more than 120,000 deaths, or 127,322.
Fueled by unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus and the easing of restrictions, U.S. stocks rallied sharply in the second quarter, with the Dow up 17.8%, its biggest quarterly gain since 1987. The S&P 500 is up about 20 per cent, its biggest quarterly gain since the peak of the dotcom boom in 1998. The NASDAQ rose 30.6 per cent, its biggest quarterly gain since 2001.
Still, some analysts say the surge in new cases could delay the economic restart and undermine the nascent recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell on Tuesday reiterated that the outlook for the U.S. economy is’ highly uncertain. ‘
The U.S. economy is bouncing back, but the biggest challenge now, Powell said, is preventing the spread of the disease, which will slow the recovery.
On the same day, Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned on Tuesday that the number of new cases could more than double to 100,000 a day if the current surge in cases in the US gets out of hand.
“Right now, we are seeing more than 40,000 new cases a day,” fauci said. If things don’t get better, I wouldn’t be surprised to see 100,000 new cases a day.” Dr. Fauci, a member of the White House Novel Coronavirus Working group, said Tuesday at a Senate hearing. “I’m worried because it could get really bad.”
“I’m very concerned. I’m not happy with the situation because we’re going in the wrong direction,” he told a Senate hearing.
Fauci said the number of new cases in southern Texas and Florida was alarming, pushing up the number of cases nationwide by more than 40,000. He said the dangerous situation must be contained quickly before it spreads to other regions.
There is no guarantee that there will be a vaccine to prevent infection anytime soon, but early data give scientists “cautious optimism” that there will be a vaccine in 2021, Fauci said. “Hopefully a vaccine will be available early next year,” he said.
On the daily chart, the U.S. dollar index remained a narrow shock pattern, the overall small pressure. The daily chart MACD red momentum column was little changed, with the KDJ random index hovering slightly below overbought levels, indicating that the dollar rebound momentum is still in place but weak, and further volatility is expected.
On the 4-hour chart, the USD index appears to be setting an uptrend low, with an eye on whether the high of 97.80 can be broken. The MACD green momentum column expanded slightly, with the KDJ random index falling below the 50 level, indicating a strengthening of the dollar’s short-term downward momentum or further weakness.
On daily charts, silver finally broke out of the choppy pattern of previous days and is now back above $18. The daily MACD green momentum column gradually weakens and is close to fading, with the KDJ random index hitting overbought levels, indicating continued weakening of short momentum in silver, but wary of a possible pullback.
In the 4-hour chart, silver appears to be forming moving highs and lows, with a focus on breaking the June high of $18.38. The MACD red momentum column has expanded sharply, and the KDJ random index has hit overbought levels, indicating bullish momentum for silver, but keeping an eye out for a short-term pullback.
Fundamentals positive factors:
- According to real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University, as of 07:33 Beijing time on July 1, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 10.43 million, with 10,434,835 confirmed cases and 509,779 deaths so far. In the United States, there were more than 2.62 million confirmed cases of COVID-19, or 2,629,372, and more than 120,000 deaths, or 127,322.
- The U.S. Federal Communications Commission on Tuesday labeled Chinese telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE a national security threat, barring U.S. companies from using $8.3 billion in government funds to buy their equipment.
- After the passage of Hong Kong’s security law, 27 countries, including France, Britain and Germany, issued a joint statement at the UN Human Rights Council, calling on Beijing to “reconsider” its security law, AFP reported.
- The US Department of Commerce said in a statement on its website Monday local time that it has cancelled special treatment for Hong Kong, including the suspension of export license exemption, and is conducting a differential treatment assessment.
Fundamentals negative factors:
- In testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell expressed their willingness to do more for the U.S. economy to mitigate the devastating impact of the outbreak.
2. According to the National Housing Price Index report released on June 30, the price of previously owned homes in the United States increased by 4.7% in April, compared with 4.6% in March. Prices of previously owned homes in the U.S. have been accelerating since the fall of 2019.
3. Another report on June 30 showed U.S. consumer confidence rose more than expected in June as optimism grew as businesses reopened. But the index is still well below its pre-outbreak level.
4. Data from the National Association of Realtors, or NAR, showed the monthly sales index of previously owned homes surged 44.3 percent to 99.6 in May, the biggest increase since the data began in 2001, suggesting the housing market is starting to recover after being hit by the epidemic and other economic factors.