After a historic first quarter, the market will usher in a new trading month on April 1. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with silver edging above the $14 mark.
Silver prices remained in a tight range last week, with prices finally closing below the $14 mark, continuing the previous consolidation pattern and awaiting further stimulus.
On the epidemic front, the global total of COVID 19 cases has exceeded 850,000 as of around 11:10 Beijing time on April 1, with a total of 858,753 cases confirmed and 42,156 deaths, according to statistics from real-time data update website worldometers.
Among them, the total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 180,000, reaching 188,578, which is the country with the most confirmed cases in the world. Italy had the highest number of deaths, with 12,428.
In the latest update, U.S. secretary of state mike pompeo says a state department official has died of COVID 19, adding to the dozens of confirmed cases at the department. This is the first COVID 19 death at the U.S. state department.
This session, the market is set for a wave of data, with a focus on the U.S. ADP employment data. At 20:15 Beijing time on Wednesday, “small non-agricultural” ADP data is expected to be the first to issue a negative warning. U.S. ADP employment is expected to have fallen by 150,000 in March from a gain of 183,000, according to a media survey.
ADP measures monthly changes in non-agricultural private sector employment, and those private small and medium-sized enterprises are the biggest victims of the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak, globally.
‘the new debt king,’ Gundlach, says the current economic situation looks like a recession. The outbreak has put 35 million low-income American jobs at risk. The trump administration’s $10 trillion fiscal and monetary stimulus seems conservative. The U.S. economy is expected to decline in the second quarter, and a reversal in the third quarter is unlikely.
Mr. Gundlach said the market is’ a little bit out of whack, ‘and that many big Banks’ forecasts of a quick recovery are too optimistic, and that there may be improvement, but not a v-shaped recovery. He added that predictions that there would be no negative GDP growth this year were “ridiculous”.
Gundlach noted that the stock selloff related to covid-19 will resume in April and fall below the march lows. “I think we will have a similar atmosphere of panic again in April.” There are likely to be no real returns in U.S. stocks and bonds for years to come.
On the daily chart, the dollar index index on the day high fall, barely maintain near the 99 level, continue to trade in this level within a narrow range. On the technical side, the MACD green kinetic energy column expanded slightly, the RSI index held steady around 50, the KDJ random index fell below 50, there is still room for further decline.
On the 4 hour chart, the dollar index in the 100 moving average 99.35 level fluctuation, the trend is clearly caught in the consolidation, attention can stand on this average. In technical terms, the MACD red kinetic energy column slightly contracted, RSI index hovering below 50, KDJ random index fell below 50, there is still room for further decline in the short term.
On the daily chart, silver has been trading in a narrowing range recently and is hovering around the $14 mark, waiting for a boost. From the technical perspective, the MACD red kinetic energy column is basically stable, the RSI index is stable near the 50 level, the KDJ random index is approaching the overbought level, short term or continue to consolidate
On the 4-hour chart, the pattern of silver trading in a narrow range is even more obvious, with the price still in the range of the 100-point average 14.21 and the 50-point average 13.80. Both averages are also narrowing and a decisive break is expected soon. Technical point of view, MACD green kinetic energy column continued to weaken, KDJ random index approached 50 level, short – term may shock.
fundamentals Positive factors :
- According to media reports and statistics, on April 1, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 850,000, with a total of 858,669 cases confirmed and 42,151 cases killed by lightning. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 180,000, making it the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
- US President Donald trump called a novel coronavirus a plague and said the us was facing “a very, very painful two weeks”. Dr. Bill bilks, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said he still expects 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the United States, with the death toll expected to peak in the next two weeks.
- On Tuesday, trump called for the U.S. to spend another $2 trillion on a massive infrastructure package. With us interest rates at zero during the crisis, he wrote, it was “time” to overhaul infrastructure.
- U.S. President Donald trump says models of the outbreak show that the peak of the epidemic is not yet in the next two weeks. The next 30 days are challenging times. Mr. Trump noted that one million americans have been tested for the virus. In addition, Mr. Trump said he would send $100 million worth of goods to Italy.
Fundamental negative factors:
1, March 31 U.S. stocks ended the first quarter with a decline across the board. The dow posted its biggest quarterly decline since 1987, while the s&p 500 posted its biggest quarterly decline since the financial crisis. Both the s&p 500 and the dow ended the first quarter more than 20% lower than at the end of 2019, one of the fastest bull-to-bear rallies on record.
2.Russia’s central bank announced on Monday that it would stop buying gold from April 1, without explaining why.
3.All three major U.S. indexes rose in a volatile session on March 30, with the dow up nearly 700 points as large-cap tech and health-care stocks rallied.
4.The U.S. house of representatives on Friday approved the largest aid package in U.S. history, a $2.2 trillion plan to help American individuals and businesses deal with the economic downturn caused by a novel coronavirus outbreak and provide much-needed medical supplies to hospitals.