On Monday (March 30), the spot silver price continued to fall, and now extended the decline to more than 3 percent, again below the key $14 level.
Silver prices rose sharply last week, hitting the $13 and $14 levels, up more than 14%.
In terms of the epidemic situation, according to real-time data from Johns Hopkins University, as of 09:30 on March 30, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide exceeded 720,000, among which the United States had the most confirmed cases, exceeding 142,000.
Despite the strict prevention and control in European countries, the epidemic of COVID 19 continues to spread and the situation is still serious. The total number of COVID 19 deaths has exceeded 20,000, the total number of Italian deaths has exceeded 10,000, the total number of Spanish deaths has exceeded 6,800, and the total number of British deaths has exceeded 1,000. The worst cases so far have been in Italy, which sent medical supplies to the worst-hit areas on Sunday, and Spain, which further tightened city closures, while the French prime minister warned that the next two weeks would be difficult.
Everett Millman, a precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coin, said the news that the U.S. is the new crisis center is worrisome because of how much the rest of the world depends on the U.S. market and the U.S. consumer.
Nomura Global Markets Research said weekly U.S. jobless claims were just a prelude to a ‘data horror show’ that other U.S. macro data sets due out in the new week are expected to show.
Initial claims remain the key number to watch for this week, with Capital Economics expecting them to climb to 5m.
“Given the surge in claims to more than 3 million, which seems to be a small part of what some states, particularly California, are reporting, we expect unemployment benefits to surge to nearly 5 million,” said Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at capital economics.
In addition, the key non-farm payrolls report is due this week. But the march nonfarm survey was conducted in the second week of the month, so it hasn’t fully reflected the impact of the flu on the labor market.
“The impact of the outbreak on non-farm payrolls is likely to be relatively light given the survey coverage of the march non-farm payrolls report,” ING said. “however, given that U.S. companies started laying off workers and stopped hiring in early march, we could still see negative non-farm payrolls and a possible spike in the unemployment rate.” By April, nonfarm losses could reach millions.
Market forecasts, based on Reuters statistics, are for march data to show U.S. non-farm payrolls at -100,000 (up from 273,000) and the unemployment rate at 4 percent (up from 3.5 percent).
On the daily chart, the USD index is trying to stabilize after four days of sharp declines. Currently, the USD index is hovering around 98.60, focusing on whether it can get back above the 50-day average of 98.62 at the close. On the technical side, the MACD green kinetic energy column appears initially, the RSI index is stable and hovering around 50, and the KDJ random index drops below the 50 levels from the bottom, there is still room for further decline.
On the 4-hour chart, the dollar index is still in a volatile downward trend from the 103 level, has now broken through the key 200 moving average 98.87, focus on the future can return to this level above. From the technical perspective, the MACD green kinetic energy column gradually weakened, RSI index rebounded from the oversold level, KDJ random index is still in the oversold level, focusing on the possibility of correction rebound.
On the daily chart, silver continues to fall from its highs, now missing the key $14 level and away from the 20-day moving average above. In technical terms, the MACD red kinetic energy column slightly expanded, RSI index from the 50 levels down, KDJ random index to rise through the 50 levels, trend or continue to shock.
On the 4-hour chart, silver has continued to fall from its highs after trading in a tight range and is still trading between its 100-point moving average of 14.69 and its 50-point moving average of $13.36. In technical terms, MACD green kinetic energy column gradually expanded, KDJ random index fell below the 50 levels, short or further down.
fundamentals Positive factors:
- According to media reports and data statistics, the global total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 720,000, with a total of 722088 cases confirmed. The total number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the United States exceeded 140,000, making it the country with the most confirmed cases in the world.
- Japan will refuse entry to foreigners from the United States, China, South Korea and most of Europe, Kyodo news reported, citing a novel coronavirus.
- US President Donald Trump extended a 15-day “social distance advice” issued two weeks ago to April 30, saying the death toll could peak within two weeks.
- A novel coronavirus virus infection in the United States could number in the millions and kill as many as 200,000 people, the government’s chief infectious disease expert warned on Sunday.
Fundamental negative factors:
- The U.S. House of Representatives on Friday approved the largest aid package in U.S. history, a $2.2 trillion plan to help American individuals and businesses deal with the economic downturn caused by a virus outbreak called novel coronavirus and provide much-needed medical supplies to hospitals.
- The dow closed up 1,351.62 points, or 6.4%, at 22,552.17, ending its biggest three-day rally since 1931. Over the past three days, the dow has risen more than 21.3%, its best three-day winning streak since October 1931, as a $2 trillion bailout helped pull it out of a technical bear market.
- The U.S. Senate on Wednesday voted unanimously to pass a $2 trillion bill aimed at helping the unemployed and industries hit by an outbreak of novel coronavirus.
- The federal reserve said on Monday it would buy as many bonds as possible to stabilize financial markets and guarantee direct loans to companies to spur a further recovery in risk sentiment.