Silver morning: us stocks hit ‘avalanche’! Fed rate cut expectations straight up! Silver is trying to stabilize!

After the “Black Monday”, risk sentiment improved slightly in the sub-session on Tuesday (March 10), with most sub-stocks showing little volatility, although concerns over the new pneumonia outbreak and the collapse in oil prices persisted.

After Monday’s avalanche of losses on Wall Street sent volatility to levels not seen since the financial crisis, silver lost nearly 2 percent of its value to the $17 level, before edging back above $17 on Tuesday and trading around $17.05.

Oil prices plunged more than 30 percent, risk aversion spiked, U.S. Treasury yields hit record lows and U.S. stocks suffered their biggest one-day drop since the 2008 financial crisis.

Schools will be closed until April 3, Italian prime minister guido Conte said on Monday. In the early hours of March 8, the city closure order was extended to cover the whole country. All residents are not allowed to enter or leave the city at will (except for work, emergency or medical conditions). Meanwhile, Italy suspended all sporting events.

The market for the federal reserve interest rate cut expectations straight up. The market for the federal reserve interest rate cut expectations straight up. Trading in the us sovereign debt market implied a 70 percent chance of a 75 basis point cut in the fed’s monetary policy meeting next week and a 30 percent chance of a 100 basis point cut.

Economists at Goldman Sachs say they now expect the federal reserve to cut interest rates back to the record lows of 2015, given that a public emergency could stall growth.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius said in a note to clients on Monday that he expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its March 17-18 and April 28-29 meetings, bringing the range of U.S. benchmark interest rates back to the 0-0.25 percent range last seen in 2015. Prior to Monday’s forecast, Goldman had expected a quarter-point cut in March and April.

Technical analysis:

The dollar

On the daily chart, the U.S. index hit its lowest level since September 2018 to 94.63 and closed just above the 95 marks. It bounced off the lows and is trading around 95.40, still below its main moving average. On the technical side, the MACD green kinetic energy column stabilizes after a sharp expansion, the RSI index tries to rebound from oversold levels, the KDJ random index hits oversold levels, and the short-term or correction rebound.

On the four-hour chart, the dollar index has fallen and fallen, recovering from a low near 94.63. It remains to be seen whether the rally can be sustained. MACD green kinetic energy column continued to weaken, RSI index bounced close to the 50 levels, KDJ random index from the oversold level upward, short-term technical oversold, short term is expected to rebound.

silver

On the daily chart, silver tumbled below the key 200-day moving average last day and is now trying to regain that level. In technical terms, MACD green kinetic energy column weakened, RSI index up close to 50 levels, KDJ random index hovering below 50, focus on whether to stand on the 200-day average.

On the 4-hour chart, silver has fallen sharply since hitting a high of $17.59, briefly touching a low near 16.54, as it tries to find its footing. In technical terms, MACD green kinetic energy column weakened, KDJ random index trading below the 50 levels, short or continue to shock.

Fundamentals favorable factors:

  1. According to the health department of the Republic of Korea (rok), a total of 7513 new cases of coronavirus have been confirmed in the rok as of 0:00 local time on October 10, with 131 new cases reported in the past 24 hours (0:00 on September 9 to 0:00 on October 10).
  2. According to the latest data released by the ministry of health of Italy at 1800 hours on March 9 local time, there are 7,985 new coronavirus patients in Italy, 463 of who died, and 724 of whom were cured. The total number of confirmed new coronavirus infections in Italy is 9,172, which is 1797 new cases of coronavirus pneumonia and 97 new deaths compared with 18:00 on March 8. Italy has the highest death rate in the world at over 4.96%.
  3. Schools will be closed until April 3, Italian prime minister alvaro conte announced Thursday night, as a nationwide ban will be imposed. In the early hours of March 8, the city closure order was extended to cover the whole country. All residents are not allowed to enter or leave the city at will (except for work, emergency or medical conditions). Meanwhile, Italy suspended all sporting events.
  4. The three major U.S. stock indexes collapsed at the opening bell, triggering a circuit breaker mechanism set up after the black Monday crash of 1987. At one point, the dow was down 2,000 points shortly after the opening bell.

Fundamental negative factors:

  1. After the close of the U.S. stock market on Monday, Trump announced at an impromptible White House press conference in the evening eastern time that he would travel to congress on March 10 to discuss measures such as a payroll tax cut to offset the economic impact of the new outbreak.
  2. According to statistics from the national health commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on March 9, two new confirmed cases were reported from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) other than hubei province and xinjiang production and construction corps, all of which were confirmed cases imported from overseas (1 case in Beijing and 1 case in guangdong).
  3. From 0:00 to 24:00 on March 8, 36 new cases were confirmed in hubei province, and the new cases were 0 except in wuhan.
  4. According to statistics from the national health commission, from 0:00 to 24:00 on March 8, 4 new confirmed cases were reported from 30 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) other than hubei province and xinjiang production and construction corps, all of which were confirmed cases imported from overseas (4 cases from gansu province).

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