On Friday morning, the U.S. dollar index continued to come under pressure, trading around 99.70, while spot gold rose sharply in the latest short-term session and briefly breached the $1,720 / oz mark. On Friday night, investors are bracing for what is expected to be the worst ever U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected to cause wild swings. Some analysts said the dollar could be hit if payrolls fall more than expected or wages show negative growth, especially as negative wage growth could hurt the dollar the most, while gold could surge further.
Worst non-farm terror in history
At 20:30 Beijing time on Friday, investors will be greeted by the us non-farm payrolls report for April, which may be the worst non-farm payrolls report on record. The U.S. economy is expected to shed 21.25 million jobs in April, while the unemployment rate is expected to surge to 16 percent, according to a respected media survey.
The U.S. private sector lost more than 20 million jobs in April, according to a report released Wednesday by ADP, as companies shed jobs as a coronavirus blockade shut down much of the economy.
ADP said on Wednesday that employment fell 20.236 million in April, the worst performance since the survey began in 2002, and the previous record was 834,665 in February 2009, during the financial crisis.
“This level of unemployment is unprecedented,” said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice President of ADP employment data. “the total number of unemployed in April alone was more than twice the total number of unemployed during the great recession.”
New claims for state unemployment benefits reached 3.169 million last week, bringing the total for the past seven weeks to 33.5 million, labor department data showed on Thursday.
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com, said the latest jobs report was “a SOB reminder of the state of the U.S. and global economy during the current novel coronavirus pandemic.”
St. Louis federal reserve bank President James bullard said Wednesday that Friday’s April jobs report could be one of the worst in U.S. history.
Kathy Lien, managing director of BK asset management, wrote on Thursday that Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report is expected to be the worst ever. Economists think more than 21 million jobs were lost in April, which would push the unemployment rate to 16 percent. The last time unemployment hit double digits was in 1983, after the 1980s recession.
In response to the non-farm payroll report, Kathy Lien said the payroll data could be the biggest surprise. Economists expect wage growth to stabilize at 0.4%, rising from 3.1% to 3.3% year on year. This is hard to understand because there are numerous reports that companies are cutting wages at the same time they are paying them. If wage growth turns negative and the rest of the jobs report is in line with expectations, that could be enough to push stocks and the dollar sharply lower against the yen.
The dollar retreated from a two-week high on Thursday as investors booked gains from the dollar’s rise this week ahead of Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report and news that the January 2021 federal funds rate futures offer the prospect of a negative interest rate from the federal reserve.
On Thursday, the dollar index briefly maintained gains above the 100-point mark and rose to a session high of 100.41, but the gains quickly reversed and the dollar index fell 60 points to 99.81.
“My sense is that this is a case of taking profits from this week’s dollar rally ahead of Friday’s jobs report,” said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Stamford, Connecticut. Now is a good time to take profits ahead of the jobs report.”
Minneapolis fed President Jeffrey kashkari said Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report may understate the epidemic’s damage because many people are not looking for work. The true unemployment rate is thought to be between 23 and 24 percent, but the jobs report is likely to show a lower rate.
“One in five people can lose their job within seven weeks,” sighs Nick Bunker, director of economic research at Indeed’s recruitment lab. The outlook for the Labour market remains worrying. Not only is the pace of layoffs still at an unprecedented level, but hiring intentions remain depressed.”
Gold bulls prepare for a bigger burst
As the dollar has tumbled, spot gold has soared, bouncing back to an intraday high of $1,721.90 an ounce on Thursday. Spot gold closed Thursday at $1,715.16 an ounce, up $30.66 or 1.82 percent.
Chintan Karnani, chief market analyst at Insignia Consultants, said traders would “rather be long gold than short it” ahead of Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls data for April.
Jim Wyckoff, senior economist at Kitco.com, said the weekly U.S. jobless claims report “reminds traders and investors that the U.S. and other major world economies are severely damaged.”
Gold rallied strongly on Thursday and came close to its first waiting target of $1,727.00 an ounce, reinforcing expectations that the bullish trend will continue for some time to come, according to an article on Economies.com.
According to Economies.com, it is now waiting for gold to break through the $1,727.00 / oz level to help push gold to its main bullish target, first at $1,747.43 / oz and then at $1,785.00 / oz. Economies.com cautioned that gold needed to stay above $1,678.45 an ounce to continue its expected rise.
Update on covid-19: more than 3.91 million cases have been confirmed in the United States
According to the latest statistics, the global cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases has exceeded 3.91 million. So far, 10 countries have confirmed more than 100,000 cases, including 1.29 million cases in the United States.
Worldometers world real-time statistics show that as of 9:03 PM Beijing time on May 8, the global covid-19 cumulative confirmed cases exceeded 3.91 million, reaching 3,915,973, and the cumulative death cases exceeded 270,701, exceeding 270,000. The United States had the highest number of cumulative confirmed COVID 19 cases in the world, with more than 1.29 million cases (1,292,623 cases) and more than 76,000 deaths (76,928 cases).
US President Donald trump said on May 7 that he “didn’t have much contact” with the White House staff who was diagnosed with COVID 19. Trump said the White House staff’s novel coronavirus test would be changed from weekly to daily. He himself has tested negative for two consecutive days.
Earlier, the White House issued a statement confirming the diagnosis of COVID 19 by one of trump’s closest staff members, a member of the elite White House unit affiliated with the us navy.
US President Donald trump said in the oval office on May 6 that novel coronavirus was worse than the attacks on Pearl Harbor and 9/11, but the us would not adopt a widespread blockade because people would not accept it and it was not sustainable.
The head of the centers for disease control and prevention, Robert redfield, said on April 21 that the start of winter in the United States could usher in a second, more severe outbreak, with the overlap of the flu season and the new pandemic threatening “unimaginable” strains on the health care system. Redfield said governments at all levels should use the months to prepare, including improving their detection and monitoring capabilities.
US President Donald trump on April 11 declared Wyoming a “state of major disaster” for the new outbreak. For the first time in U.S. history, all 50 states, Washington, d.c. and four overseas territories — the U.S. virgin islands, northern mariana islands, Guam and Puerto Rico — are in a “major state of disaster.”
There are now more than 100,000 confirmed cases in 10 countries, the United States, Spain, Italy, France, Britain, Germany, Turkey, Russia, Brazil and Iran, the latest country to exceed 100,000.
Worldometers world real-time statistics, as of 9 PM Beijing time on May 8, 3 points, the Spanish COVID – 19 accumulative total of 256855 cases of the patients, Italy has confirmed 215858 cases, the diagnosis of 206715 cases, Russia has confirmed 177160 cases of confirmed 174791 cases of France, and Germany has confirmed 169430 cases, Brazil has confirmed 135693 cases, Turkey has confirmed 133721 cases, Iran has confirmed 103135 cases, Canada has confirmed 64922 cases, A total of 58,526 cases have been confirmed in Peru, 56,351 in India and 51,420 in Belgium.
On May 6, local time, the world health organization (who) held a regular briefing on COVID-19. Since the beginning of April, the who has been receiving reports of about 80,000 new cases a day on average, said who director-general tan Desai. Countries should lift the blockade in stages and strong health systems are the foundation of economic recovery, tan said.