“Horrible data” deserves its name! Yesterday U.S. retail sales rose 17.7%, a record the biggest gain, at the same time, the experiment shows that the new patent steroids to reduce coronary mortality, the stock market big carnival scene, also conveniently rebound, but Beijing tighten disease related measures, china-india military conflict in the Himalayan border, north and South Korea situation sharp escalation of geopolitical risk investors cautious, gold prices remain strong, the trading day, the market continue to focus on epidemic dynamic and geopolitical situation.
Small data set off a big rally in global markets
On Tuesday, the Commerce Department released its latest report on retail sales, which rose 17.7 percent in May, well ahead of expectations for an 8 percent increase, after being revised down to a 14.7 percent drop. Notably, retail sales rose 17.7 percent in May, the biggest increase since the government began tracking the series in 1992.
U.S. retail sales rose at a record pace in May after falling for two straight months. The data, which showed a pick-up in activity in May, the first month of economic recovery, fuelled optimism about the outlook for the recovery.
As a result, all three major U.S. stock indexes rose for a third straight session. The Dow and S&P 500 are still about 11% and 8% below their record closing highs hit in February, respectively, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq hovers about 1% below its record closing high hit on June 10.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 526.82 points, or 2.04 percent; The S&P 500 closed up 58.15 points, or 1.90 percent. The Nasdaq closed up 169.84 points, or 1.75%.
“It’s a pretty big increase compared to expectations,” said Tom Simons, a Money market analyst at Jefferies in New York. “The data is showing that the recovery is more broad-based and stronger than had been expected and the market is really paying attention to that.”
“The story that’s driving the market higher is the retail sales data,” said Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial in Cincinnati, Ohio. “But the smell of more stimulus is definitely driving the rally.”
The Trump administration is preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure plan to jump-start the U.S. economic recovery, Bloomberg reported on Monday. The news further boosted investors’ appetite for risk.
In testimony to Congress on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell said a full economic recovery is unlikely until the public is confident that coVID-19 is under control. Mr Powell’s pessimism was outweighed by the strength of retail sales.
In addition, a UK-led drug trial showed that low doses of the generic steroid dexamethasone reduced mortality in patients with severe coVID-19. The news also cemented the stock market rally.
Preliminary clinical trials in the United Kingdom show that dexamethasone can save the lives of critically ill patients with COVID-19, reducing deaths by about a third in those on ventilators and by about a fifth in those on oxygen alone, the WORLD Health Organization (WHO) said Tuesday. The improvement of dexamethasone was observed only in severe patients and not in mild patients, the study noted.
Detrick added: “We have probably gotten more positive news on the epidemic. But while most people are still worried about the outbreak, the stock market is focused on the restart, with strong data suggesting the economy is recovering faster than most people expect.”
As equities continued to rally, spot gold held firm, edging higher yesterday to close above $1,720, after coming under a bit of pressure on Wednesday and moving closer to the 1,720 mark.
“Every time gold has fallen, investors seem to view it asa buying opportunity,” Carlo Alberto De Casa, ActivTrades’ chief analyst, said in a note.
Bob Haberkorn at RJO Futures said gold fundamentals were strong given the low interest rate environment and uncertainty over the outbreak.
Deutsche bank strategist MichaelHsueh said gold’s bull market will continue through at least 2021 against a backdrop of constrained interest rates, recovering economic fundamentals and a weaker dollar. Hsueh said in a report that the Fed’s policy direction would allow investors to maintain demand for gold for one to two years. Deutsche Bank raised its gold price forecast to $2,000 an ounce by the end of 2021 from $1,750, leaving its forecast unchanged at $1,800.
Outbreak of geopolitical situation! China, India and the DPRK and the ROK have all transmitted important news
Despite the global market euphoria, geopolitical crises are still lurking in the wings, with important news coming from China, India and The Two Koreas.
New Delhi: India’s military said on Tuesday that 20 soldiers were killed in border clashes with Chinese troops, Reuters and the Associated Press quoted a military statement as saying. It was the first deadly border clash between the two countries in 53 years. In addition to the three Indian soldiers who were killed earlier in the day, 17 Indian soldiers were later confirmed to have died of their injuries after being exposed to sub-zero altitude, the Indian military said on Tuesday.
Much attention is now being paid to what North Korea will do next. However, some analysts said that the next move could be referred to the Speech of Kim Yo-jong, first deputy minister of the Workers’ Party of Korea on June 4.
Right gold and in speaking, “if the south Korean authorities to take measures for their misconduct, maybe after banning the mount kumgang tourist, will cause the demolition of the kaesong complex has been useless or cause to the impatient north-south joint liaison office shut down or cause the fictitious north-south military agreement abolished, you’d better prepare anyway.”
After blowing up the JOINT Venture, north Korea may also knock down the industrial park. The General Staff of the Korean People’s Army has already announced the deployment of troops in the demilitarized zone, and the DPRK may also set up military bases at Kaesong and Mount Kumgang. A military agreement between the two koreas signed in 2018 could also be scrapped.