After witnessed the historic upheaval in the first quarter, on April 1, the market for new a month, now COVID – 19 outbreak is still not optimistic, the Dutch media BNO news according to the latest figures, the current global COVID – 19 confirmed cases reached 860000 cases, deaths have exceed 42000 cases, including the United States more than 180000 confirmed cases and deaths more than 2001 “9 · 11” terrorist attacks in the number of death, the President of the United States trump to remind the next two weeks will be “very, very painful. This session, the market in addition to continue to track the global outbreak, also need to pay special attention to the series of PMI data in Europe and the United States, the United States “small non-farm” data will also be a big debut.
Trump warns the next two weeks will be ‘painful’
The current situation of the global epidemic situation is still not optimistic, the number of cases worldwide jumped from 300,000 to 700,000 in eight days. The United States currently has the highest number of confirmed COVID 19 cases, with more than 20,000 new cases confirmed for two consecutive days.
According to the latest statistics from real-time data update site worldometers, the cumulative number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the U.S. exceeded 180,000, the highest in the world, with 187,321 cases, more than twice the number in China. Meanwhile, the U.S. has recorded a total of 3,850 deaths, far more than the 2,977 killed in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.
In addition, New York state, the epicenter of the outbreak, is still getting worse. New York state hospitals admitted more than 10, 000 patients on Monday, adding 1, 412 cases a day, the largest one-day increase since the state’s outbreak began. New York’s governor said the peak could come in the next seven to 30 days.
As of March 31, New York state had 75,976 confirmed cases, bringing the total in New York City to more than 40,000.
More than 38,000 people have been diagnosed in New York City, mayor blasio DE blasio said in an interview, but community transmission has already begun, and the number of people infected far exceeds the number diagnosed, with mild cases still not meeting testing standards.
On March 31, CNN host Chris cuomo posted on social media that he tested positive for a novel coronavirus. He said he had fever, shortness of breath and other symptoms, but was in good condition and would continue to host his show at home. His brother, the governor of New York, had stressed that he would open up the state’s public and private health systems and continue to add beds to cope with the outbreak.
At a news conference at the White House on March 31, trump said the next two weeks would be “very difficult.”
US President Donald trump and his top medical advisers said on March 31 that the next two weeks will be very difficult, with at least 100,000 people likely to die from COVID 19 in the us, and urged americans to strictly adhere to measures such as social isolation.
“I want every American to be prepared for the tough times that are ahead,” trump said at a news conference on Tuesday. We are going to have a very difficult two weeks. He added: “hopefully, as the experts predict, we will see some real light at the end of the tunnel after some hard work. But it’s going to be a very, very painful two weeks.”
In addition, Mr Trump last night called for a $2tn infrastructure bill. He wrote on social media: “with us interest rates at zero, it’s time to implement the infrastructure bill we’ve been waiting for for decades. It should be very big and bold, $2 trillion, focused only on jobs and rebuilding the great infrastructure of our country!”
Pelosi also told reporters earlier in the day that she believes the White House should take steps to test more people for the virus and use the defense production act to produce anti-epidemic supplies.
Deborah berks, coordinator of the White House coronavirus response task force, showed a model for predicting the number of deaths from a novel coronavirus could range from 100,000 to 240,000 in the next two weeks. If not controlled, the number of deaths could reach between 1.5 million and 2.2 million.
“There is no magic bullet,” berks said. There is no magic vaccine or cure. It’s just about behavior: each of our actions translates into something that changes the course of this pandemic over the next 30 days.” Berks expects the death toll to peak in the next two weeks.
Economists at Goldman Sachs, an investment bank, expect the U.S. economy to contract 34% in the second quarter and the unemployment rate to rise to 15% by mid-year, though the economy is likely to rebound strongly in the third quarter.
UN secretary-general Antonio guterres said on March 31 that the covid-19 outbreak is the biggest test the UN has faced since its inception, and the international community should strengthen coordination and respond together.
Guterres said the international monetary fund has reassessed its forecast for global growth in 2020 and 2021, declaring a global recession. As a result, the report calls for the global response to be at least 10 percent of global output.
Today “small non-farm” attack
Against the backdrop of a febrile global outbreak, sentiment has been notably fragile in recent days, with investors still worried about the impact on the global economy despite three large rounds of stimulus measures in the us.
On March 31, U.S. stocks ended the quarter with losses across the board. The dow posted its biggest quarterly decline since 1987, while the s&p 500 posted its biggest quarterly decline since the financial crisis. Both the s&p 500 and the dow ended the first quarter more than 20% lower than at the end of 2019, one of the fastest bull-to-bear rallies on record.
“After taking a beating over the past month, people are not willing to take big bets in any direction,” said Carol Schleif, deputy chief investment officer at Abbot Downing.
Steven DeSanctis, the strategist at furui financial group, said many investors were also likely to be cautious ahead of Thursday’s jobless claims data and Friday’s march nonfarm payrolls report. “There will be more big news later this week,” he said.
Ahead of Friday’s blockbuster non-farm payrolls report, the market will tonight welcome the so-called “small non-farm” U.S. ADP employment data, due at 20:15 Beijing time, is expected to be the first negative warning to set off the first wave of market highs.
That followed a better-than-expected report on U.S. employment in February. However, due to the impact of the outbreak, employment has been significantly hit, the data is not expected to be optimistic, the current forecast “small non-farm” will record – 154,000, compared with the previous value of 183,000.
Economists had thought small businesses were likely to be hardest hit by the outbreak’s economic slowdown.
ADP measures monthly changes in non-agricultural private sector employment, and those private small and medium-sized enterprises are the biggest victims of the economic slowdown caused by the outbreak, globally. Even in Japan, where the outbreak is far less severe than in the u.s., Mr. Abe has called for the survival of small and medium-sized businesses.
Deutsche noted that 15 million Americans, already about 10 percent of the U.S. labor force, could lose their jobs as the outbreak has a negative impact on the U.S. economy.
Gold is also eyeing today’s U.S. ADP jobs data. After falling as much as $50 to around $1,571 in early trading, gold was hovering around $1,575 in sub-session, awaiting guidance from evening data.
HSBC says the gold market will consolidate in the short term. The bank said the gold market would take a break and consolidate in the short term because of the passage of a fiscal stimulus program in the United States and the lack of new stimulus programs in Europe.
However, Credit Suisse says it is bullish on gold hitting a record high. “We are bullish on gold for the long term, with the key $1446 – $1452 / oz support zone maintained after the gold price returned above its 200-day moving average. We think gold can break through $1,921 an ounce, a new record.”
Bank of nova scotia (Scotiabank) in the latest report said, “the gold market may appear more than 2008 to 2013, a strong bull market, market position more clearly than at that time, macro panic has improved, the risk of stock demand in recovery, the dollar have been limited by the fed unlimited QE, funding pressures eased.”